Thursday, July 18, 2013

BREAKING: Flip-Flopper Bernanke says ‘QE Tapering to Begin this Year, but By No Means on a Preset Course’

Bernanke Testimony On Tap, Will He Flip Flop Again?
He’ll be in front of Congress 10AM but will release comments before at 8:30. Markets have been going parabolic last couple weeks. Good excuse for a correction. Stay tuned.

The Fed Is The Problem, Not The Solution: The Complete Walk-Through
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-16/fed-problem-not-solution-walk-through
LONDON (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Wednesday, ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s semiannual testimony and earnings from heavyweights such as Bank of America Corp. and Intel Corp.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-slip-ahead-of-bernanke-testimony-2013-07-17?mod=latestnews&link=sfmw
Three Things to Watch for in Bernanke’s Testimony 1) Look for Mr. Bernanke to repeat himself. Again: 2) Does Mr. Bernanke offer any further guidance on timing? 3) Who will be the next Fed Chairman?
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/07/16/three-things-to-watch-for-in-bernankes-testimony/
Markets were caught off-guard by Ben Bernanke’s most recent public pronouncements, with stocks climbing and the dollar dropping as traders latched on to his reiteration that the US Federal Reserve is in no hurry to withdraw bond-market stimulus. Now, investors are bracing to hear Mr Bernanke’s latest thinking in prepared remarks published at 1230 GMT, and his testimony to Congress starting at 1400 GMT. Heading into the big event, it’s eerily calm in markets, with the dollar edging up a little, while U.S. Treasury bonds are pretty much on hold, with the 10-year bond yielding 2.54%. Here’s a rundown of analyst and strategists views on what could happen and the potential market reaction that might ensue:
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/07/17/markets-brace-for-mr-bernanke/
Wild Cards for the Fed’s Exit Strategy The Wall Street Journal By Jon Hilsenrath Here are four questions that Fed officials are considering as they think about when to pull back on the monetary throttle and that lawmakers might pose to Mr. Bernanke in the days ahead: In the past nine months, the economy has generated a little more than 200,000 jobs per month. But according to most economist estimates, the economy has grown at a paltry annual rate of less than 1.5% over that period. That doesn’t add up. But a number of Fed officials have doubts about whether the jobless rate is a very good indicator of the labor market’s health. In the past year the unemployment rate has fallen from 8.2% to 7.6%, an apparent sign of improvement. However, the rate has fallen in part because people are dropping out of the labor force—the share of adults holding or seeking a job—meaning they’re no longer counted as unemployed. The Fed’s favored measure of inflation—the personal consumption expenditure price index—was up 1% in May from a year earlier, well below the Fed’s 2% objective. Another measure of inflation, the Labor Department’s consumer price-index, was up 1.8% in June from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday. Fed officials say inflation is being held down by temporary factors and that it should move back toward 2% in the months ahead. However some private economists have questioned whether it is all due to temporary factors.

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