Friday, July 12, 2013

Ben Bernanke Flip Flops More Than John Kerry In 2004. Fed Put Reiterated, Credibility Gone Again. If The Dollar Breakdown Continues, It Will Be A Sign That The Market Believes The Chairman Has Again Lost Control Over Policy


Japanese Yen
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/DXY
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX
BofA: ‘The Fed Has Taken A Step Backwards’
In a note to clients – titled “Muddled minutes” – they write:
The Fed has taken a step backwards in terms of communication. By offering so much information in such a muddled fashion, they have made policy less transparent. Why do Fed watchers need to read deeply into what is effectively an appendix to the minutes to find out that “about half” of participants want to exit QE by year end?
Moreover, why have we returned to the Greenspan days of needing a decoder ring to understand Fed statements: are these “participants” who want an early exit “members” or nonmembers, and what exactly do “several,” “many,” or “about half” mean? Looking through the Fed fog, we remain reasonably confident that rate hikes will come later than the markets expect. But with these minutes, the outlook for the start and end of QE3 has become much more muddled.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/bofa-the-fed-has-taken-a-step-backwards-2013-7#ixzz2Ykhxs14u

From Mike O’Rourke of Jones Trading
Fed Put Reiterated, Credibility Gone Again
Overall, it was a quiet trading day until the 2 pm release of the June 19th FOMC minutes. The release prompted instantaneous sharp moves in several assets that quickly reversed. June 19th was a press conference meeting. Could anyone really divine anything from 6 week old minutes considering the Chairman clearly shared the FOMC view that day? Nonetheless, the day’s real fireworks occurred after hours as the Chairman’s Q&A comments at a speaking engagement sent the Dollar crashing and risk assets (Gold, Oil, Bonds and Equities) flying. Yes, Bonds are a “risk asset” these days.

Having watched the press conference, we think nothing notably new was said to indicate a policy shift. When asked about the policy outlook, the Chairman said, “I think you can only conclude that highly accommodative monetary policy for the foreseeable future is what’s needed in the U.S. economy.” This is not new considering the Fed has promised to keep rates low until 2015 and the Fed has repeatedly stated that reduced asset purchases equates to additional easing. Most of the Fed Chairman’s remarks were consistent with the statements he made at the press conference.
The Chairman’s statement that caught our attention and that we could see exciting markets was “And I guess the final thing I would say in terms of risks of course is that we have seen some tightening of financial conditions, and that if, as I’ve said and as I said in my press conference and other places that if financial conditions were to tighten to the extent that they jeopardize the achievement of our inflation and employment objectives then we would have to push back against that.” There is nothing like a clear affirmation of the “Fed Put” to create another round of risk taking and aggressive behavior in the markets. The simplistic interpretation is thatthe Fed will never take away the accommodation, because the central bank cannot let markets “tighten,” which is a euphemism for go down.

We don’t believe the Chairman’s intentions have changed. Regardless, the Chairman’s credibility is once again damaged. If the Dollar breakdown continues, it will be a sign that the market believes the Chairman has again lost control over policy. The asset clearly in the best position in such an environment is Gold. After such a notable correction in the past 9 months, the precious metal once again becomes a very attractive global asset if monetary policy in the largest economy of the world spins out of control.
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476255
Study: Great Recession Seen as ‘Big Wake-Up Call’ for Today’s Youth 
But a new analysis of a long-term survey of high school students provides an early glimpse at ways their attitudes shifted in the first years of this most recent economic downturn.
http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/Recession-Youth-Attitude-/2013/07/11/id/514493
What Recovery? Businesses Still Aren’t Spending
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100876670

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