Thursday, June 27, 2013

Today’s US GDP Revision Is A Disaster – GDP Cut To 1.8% From 2.4% – Moderate Consumer Spending, Weak Business Investment And Declining Exports (Is QE Working?)

UPDATE: The final reading for first quarter U.S. GDP growth is out.

GDP growth came in at 1.8% annualized in Q1, down significantly from the 2.4% estimate published last month.
Personal consumption growth was revised down to 2.6% from 3.4%.
A key note from the release on differences from the second estimate: “With the third estimate for the first quarter, the increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was less than previously estimated, and exports and imports are now estimated to have declined (for more information, see “Revisions” on page 3).”
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/q1-us-gdp-final-2013-6#ixzz2XKJ3AWve

US First-Quarter GDP Gets a Haircut, Rises 1.8%
US economic growth was more tepid than previously estimated in the first quarter, held back by a moderate pace of consumer spending, weak business investment and declining exports.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100845284
Final Q1 GDP Is A Huge Miss, Personal Consumption Craters

Remember the key component of the Fed’s baffle with BS strategy: namely “baffle with BS.”
Sure enough, following yesterday’s epic trifecta of economic growth when durables, housing and confidence data all slammed expectations, it was up to GDP to be the bad cop. Sure enough, following the already disappointing first Q1 GDP revision which revised the preliminary 2.5% number to 2.4%, today economists were expecting an unchanged print. Instead they got a crash to 1.77%. And on what? Why the collapsing US consumer whose true colors have finally come out in the final Q1 GDP revision: responsible for 2.40% of the GDP print in the first revision, Personal Consumption Expenditures tumbled to just 1.83% of GDP. In absolute terms, PCE plunged from 3.4% to 2.6% on expectations of 3.4%. There goes the buying power of the overlevered, undersaved US consumer.
And perhaps just as disturbing was that Fixed Investment, i.e. CapEx, cratered to only 0.39% of the GDP print, down from 0.53% in the first revision, and 0.52% in the prelim. This was the lowest Fixed Investment number since Q3 of 2012.What is worst, is that non-residential fixed investment crashed from 2.2% to 0.4%. In other words, growth CapEx is now officially dead.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-26/final-q1-gdp-huge-miss-personal-consumption-craters

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