Saturday, June 8, 2013

THE ‘BEARMAGEDDON’ SCENARIO: 163,000 to 175,000 MORE Jobs…Yet UNEMPLOYMENT Rate RISES TO 7.6%… THE SCARIEST JOBS CHART EVER!!! YEN Is Soaring!!

7.6 Percent
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and retail trade.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/76-percent_733971.html
Jobs Report: May Unemployment Rate Rises to 7.6 Percent as 175,000 Jobs Are Added
Unemployment in May ticked up to 7.6 percent as employers added 175,000 jobs, a tepid report that may cheer investors hoping for interest rates to stay low, boosting stocks.
Economists including JJ Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist of TDAmeritrade, had expected the addition of 167,000 jobs with the unemployment rate unchanged at 7.5 percent.
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/unemployment-rate-rises-76-percent-175000-jobs-added/story?id=19342614#.UbHhE7XVCSo
GOLDILOCKS: This Was The Perfect Jobs Report For The Market 
The jobs report for May just came out. Job creation was solid at 175K. That’s ahead of the 163K that we got last month. And yet the unemployment rate rose to 7.6%. The previous month was 7.5%. That’s partially because the labor force participation rate actually increased.
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldilocks-this-was-the-perfect-jobs-report-for-the-market-2013-6
Stocks Open Higher After Jobs Report
Stocks opened higher Friday as the government’s monthly employment report was tepid enough for the Federal Reserve to maintain its bond-buying program in the coming months.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100798036

THE ‘BEARMAGEDDON’ SCENARIO: Mike O’Rourke describes the possible nightmare facing the stock market and the Fed
He writes:
The Bearmageddon Scenario is one where the economic data rolls over and turns negative.  The reason we are mentioning it today is that this week we have received a sub-50 ISM Manufacturing report.  The last two major bear markets coincided with consecutive monthly sub-50 ISM prints.  That has yet to occur, but it is something to be cognizant of.  Although we don’t have confidence in ADP, if it is signaling weakness in tomorrow’s report, it would be a problem.  A Non-Farm Payrolls print around that 100,000 or less level about which investors are concerned would be a real problem.  After 18 months of multiple expansion, modest earnings growth driven by buybacks and full throttle monetary policy, a substantive weakening of economic data would be disconcerting to investors.  With zero interest rates and $85 billion a month in QE, how would the Fed respond to new weakness in the data?  More QE?  New weakness would just expose QE3 as a failure.  It would also confirm the Fed has wasted the past couple of years relying on QE.  We do not doubt Chairman Bernanke’s ability and creativity to devise a strategy to tackle weakness, but it would take some time as it did in 2008.  In the interim, markets would re-price significantly.  In an environment being driven by Central Banks, finding out they have no clothes would be a scary proposition.  The 14% year to date gain for the S&P 500 is supposed to be discounting economic improvement.  If that improvement turns out to be weakness, it means many market participants are off sides.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bearmageddon-scenario-2013-6#ixzz2VXRqTsZL

Japan’s yen is making some huge moves
http://www.businessinsider.com/yen-fluctuating-widely-2013-6

THE SCARIEST JOBS CHART EVER
Scariest Jobs Chart May 2013
Calculated Risk
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-scariest-jobs-chart-ever-2013-6
zerohedge‏@zerohedge2 min 
Overhead on CNBC: “No one believes the economy is getting better”
More Adult Swim Fireworks Out Of Japan Ahead Of “Most Important Ever” Non-Farm Payrolls
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-07/more-adult-swim-fireworks-out-japan-ahead-most-important-ever-non-farm-payrolls
A 2 Day Yen Chart That’s Burying Traders And Crushing The Dreams Of Abenomics
Via FinViz here’s how the dollar has fallen from around 100 against the yen to below 96 in about 2 days.

Screen Shot 2013 06 07 at 7.40.59 AM
FinViz
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/a-2-day-yen-chart-thats-burying-traders-and-crushing-the-dreams-of-abenomics-2013-6#ixzz2VXSxzFlV
Dollar-Yen Shake-Out Could Just Be the Start
A day after the U.S. dollar suffered its largest one-day fall in three years against the yen, strategists say the wild currency moves may be far from over and much is dependent on Friday’s key U.S. jobs report.
Japan’s yen, which has gone from steep decline to sharp gains in a matter of weeks, hit its highest level in almost two months against the dollar on Thursday. The euro jumped more than 1 percent against the greenback and the battered Australian dollar won a reprieve, bouncing off Thursday’s 20-month low. …
Read more:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100797325

No comments:

Post a Comment