The stock market provides a beautiful scent of success although most
Americans will only catch a whiff of that aroma. The S&P 500 is now
up 145 percent from the gloomy low reached in 2009. Even though this
unrelenting trend upwards has added wealth to a few, the majority of
Americans are still seeing the purchasing power of their dollars slowly erode.
The one secure location for wealth in housing is now being usurped by
Wall Street as investors begin to invest heavily in the rental real
estate business. Speculation in the markets is once again booming.
Japan had a mini-crash this week but the media cycle continues to
pretend that printing your way into prosperity is somehow
as easy as having central bankers pushing play on the iPod and
expecting the hits to come one after another. The reason you likely do
not feel the big gains of the recent run is because most of the gains
have come from artificially low interest rates and companies slashing
wages and squeezing profits out of current workers.
S&P 500 and Case Shiller
The vast majority of Americans have their wealth locked up in
housing. While stocks are at record levels, the housing market still
has a far way to go to reach the previous peak:
This is startling divergence especially when a large portion of the recent housing gains have come from the Federal Reserve
going bananas into purchasing mortgage backed securities and easy money
flooding the rental housing market. Is this sustainable? It is hard
to tell especially when we are also reaching peak food stamp usage in
the country.
Our reliance on foreign debt has grown very large:
Nearly $6 trillion of our debt is now held by foreigners.
When I look at a chart like this, I realize that our reliance on others
is only going to grow more and more as we continue to spend at the
current rate. We are now seeing much of this money flooding back onto
our shores in the form of exclusive product purchases and also real
estate investing in more select markets. For many people trying to live
day by day, all these gains simply mean that life is getting more
expensive while they see their standard of living erode.
You can see this with the pace of GDP growth and also in the growth of total public debt:
The growth of public debt is far outpacing the growth of GDP. You
can see that as the recession hit, debt spending expanded to back fill
the loss in consumption from the private sector. But now as the market
is back, debt based spending is still extremely high and a large part of
this is coming from unprecedented actions from central banks.
The example of the Nikkei in Japan crashing in one day is a good
example of what happens when you enter into uncharted waters. Does this
look remotely healthy in our case?
It is no coincidence that the stock market has been on rocket fuel since 2009 as well. Yet the middle class
continues to erode in the United States. The reason many people feel
poorer is because they actually are. The wealth of a very small segment
of society continues to expand as they utilize all these new mechanisms
of leveraging debt. Most Americans are unable to access these cheap
funds from the Fed or having the knowledge to use high-frequency trading
algorithms to make quick gains in the market.
It is still the case that half of this country has no savings or is
living paycheck to paycheck. The Fed wants you to spend money you don’t
have just to re-inflate the bubble. Best way to avoid recognizing
major losses is simply to ignore them and inflate the market back up.
It is easy to do when you control the digital printing press. The
Nikkei’s 7 percent one day crash should tell you that not all easy money is golden.
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