Sunday, May 26, 2013

STOCKS TEND TO GO VERTICAL AT THE WORST TIMES: 1999, 2007, 2013 – ALL HAVE THE SAME SYMPTOMS. EXTREMELY HIGH SHILLER PE, NO EARNINGS GROWTH, FLAGGING ECONOMY…

The US Economic Data Performance Is The Equal Worst (With Japan) Of All Major Economic Nations And Regions
We continue to hear that the US is the cleanest dirty shirt or that the US economy is doing ‘relatively’ well as a reason for buying stocks now. Not only is this plainly incorrect (as we have pointed out rather vociferously in the recent past) it flies the face of the disconnect between macro and markets. The fact of the matter is that year-to-date, the US economic data performance is the equal worst (with Japan) of all major economic nations and regions. That is a bucket-load of hope for the second-half of the year – or, as we noted recently, is it just plain silly.
Year-to-Date move in Citigroup’s Macro Surprise Indicators…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-20/guess-who-dirtiest-dirty-shirt


WTF Chart Of The Day: “It’s All About The Earnings”
it would appear the ‘mother’s milk’ is souring…

(h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

and furthermore, since September 2011 earnings have been stagnant  - when a multitude of indicators (macro and market) began to decouple from stocks,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-20/wtf-chart-day-its-all-about-earnings
European Stocks Hit Post-Crisis Highs
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2013/03/06/european-stocks-hit-post-crisis-highs.html
Counterparties: Europe’s longest recession
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/05/15/counterparties-europes-longest-recession/

BofA: A ‘New Berlin Wall’ Has Been Erected In Europe
There’s one in the US, too.
Michael Hartnett, Bank of America Merrill Lynch‘s Chief Investment Strategist, recently published a report loaded with unconventional charts intended to communicate how the world is changing.
In a slide titled “The new Berlin Wall,” Hartnett presented this chart showing how German bond and stock prices have surged as the young people in Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain have suffered.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/baml-new-berlin-wall-in-europe-2013-5#ixzz2Tu2y2dvf
European stocks firm despite recession gloom
http://www.france24.com/en/20130515-european-stocks-firm-despite-recession-gloom

Italy’s industrial output falls back to 1970s
Italy’s president Giorgio Napolitano has called for immediate measures to combat a “dramatic crisis” after the country’s industrial output fell back to levels reached in 1979.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10069752/Italys-industrial-output-falls-back-to-1970s.html
Economic And Employment Composites Indicate Further Weakness
The economy is amazing right now – employment is recovering… In this past weekend’s newsletter I went into significant detail in dismantling the bullish arguments with one point being the consistent weakness in the economic data.
http://goldsilver.com/news/economic-and-employment-composites-indicate-further-weakness/
Ceiling suspended – US takes on $300bn in new debt after hitting $16.7 trillion
Citing ‘extraordinary measures’, America’s ticking debt bomb has been reset. Washington has suspended the debt ceiling, setting a date, & not a concrete dollar sum as a deadline, an unprecedented first in US history.
http://rt.com/business/us-debt-ceiling-suspended–510/
Are Treasurys Falling Out of Favor With China?
Reports that China may step up the diversification of its huge foreign exchange reserves is not great news for U.S. Treasurys, already under pressure from talk about an easing in the Fed’s bond-buying program.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100752563

Headlines:
BOJ may seek ways to calm bond market, policy on hold
Jobless ‘outnumber workers in some British neighbourhoods’
Gold Bear Bets Reach Record as Soros Cuts Holdings
Spanish debt at record high
World’s Biggest Volatility Jump Spurs Fund Outflow: Japan Credit
Junk Stocks Spur Broadest Equity Advance Since 1995
Rules meant to prevent Anadarko’s ‘flash crash’ didn’t kick in: The Tell
Recovery fantasy fades, oil breaks out, potential bottom in gold & silver
from SchiffReport:

WARNING from BIS and IMF: Loose Central Bank Policies Looking Increasingly DANGEROUS!!! Risks Include Greater Risk-Taking Behavior, Delayed Reforms and Potentially Volatile Capital Flows!!
http://investmentwatchblog.com/warning-from-bis-and-imf-loose-central-bank-policies-looking-increasingly-dangerous/

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