Sunday, May 12, 2013

I am become death, destroyer of worlds



I've been accused by some of irresponsibility for highlighting IMF forecasts which, if right, plainly indicate that Spain is insolvent, and will need a big sovereign/banking debt restructuring at some stage.
This leads to the obvious conclusion, spelt out in the headline to my blog, that you should get your money out while you still can. Not a good idea to be encouraging bank runs, says the irrepressible Danny Blanchflower – with whom it is never possible to have a conversation on Twitter without him having the last word – among others.
This is a nonsense argument, not unlike the sort of tut tutting there was when the BBC's Robert Peston revealed that Northern Rock had requested lender of last resort support from the Bank of England. By revealing this story, he helped spark the retail bank run that led eventually to nationalisation of Northern Rock. So should he just have sat on the story, as part of some kind of greater good, public not to know, exercise? Of course not.
As it happened, Mr Peston bent over backwards in his report to assure depositors that their money was safe, which it plainly wasn't without Government intervention. He tried to be as responsible as he could, but he was rightly not going to be party to some kind of cover up.
In Mr Peston's case, the criticism he received was wholly unjustified, since this was a real story, and in any case, wholesale investors were by then already running for the hills. The die had been cast by the time he published. He was only letting the world at large know what the professionals already suspected.
I wouldn't claim anything like the same level of intelligence for my blog. Mine is not a story as such – it is what used to be called a "scoop of interpretation". I've merely taken some quite alarming IMF forecasts and drawn some obvious conclusions from them. Perhaps I'm wrong – that there is no solvency problem in Spain. If so, my words will carry no weight. That's the thing about bank runs. They tend not to happen unless there is genuine reason for concern. So let's get the information out there and let people make up their own minds.

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