It took the S&P 500 about 13 years to get back to where it was in 2000. Of course the power of inflation
has taken an even deeper toll on this trend. The stock market is
largely a spectacle for most average Americans. It is a dramatic
sideshow like going to the track and betting on horses. The reality is,
most Americans do not own any sizeable amount of stocks. 1 out of 3
Americans have no savings and about half of Americans are one paycheck
away from being on food stamps. By the way, 47 million Americans are
still on food stamps in this recovery. The stock market over the last
few decades has operated like a casino swinging from one bubble to
another. After every subsequent bust, middle class households have seen
a chunk of their standard of living diminish. This is not hyperbole
because simply looking at Census data, adjusting for inflation median household income
is back to where it was in the mid-1990s. In fact, the S&P 500 has
endured two dips of 50+ percent between 2000 and 2010, both
precipitated by bubbles. Can the average American compete in casino
economics?
The big dips
The S&P 500, a much better of stock wealth in the US than the DOW has seen some major volatility in the last decade:
Source: ZeroHedge
This is an interesting chart. The dip in the early 2000s was led by
the tech bust and the recent dip was brought on by the massive housing
bubble. The Federal Reserve
is back at it inflating their balance sheet to over $3.1 trillion
buying mortgage backed securities as if it were a clearance sale. Yet
the market being up is a good thing for Americans, right? Well a big
part of the gains has come from cutting wages and squeezing productivity
of remaining workers. Wealth inequality in the US is now reviving
memories of the Gilded Age.
What is underlying a large part of this growth is massive debt
expansion. We are quickly on our way to approaching a total credit
market of debt of $60 trillion. The recession barely stunted this path:
Those who can get their hands on debt are buying things up from real
estate to other investments. Banks are leveraging up and bonuses are
back in fashion. The government continues to spend way more than it is
bringing in:
Yet the Fed is also allowing banks to leverage back up and go back
into their black box models of investing. It seems like a large portion
of the population is simply not interested in why the financial crisis
took place. Our politicians are certainly not interested and prevention
is rarely a good selling point.
The stock market is operating under a system of casino economics. A
boom and bust system is nearly inevitable with the Federal Reserve
flooding the market with cheap interest rates. Yet using the word
“market” may not be right here. They are providing member banks with
easy money to speculate. The public is actually seeing tighter
standards on lending:
A big part of this adjustment has come from foreclosures but also a
tighter credit market. From the first chart regarding total debt
outstanding, you realize that what applies to the average household
is not the norm. I’m sure many people look at the stock market and
think about buy and hold philosophies. Yet the market stands today
where it did in 2000 (actually lower if we adjust for inflation).
Unfortunately the market is setup for boom and bust cycles and those
that create them are usually the people that profit. Take a look at
Japan for a case in long-term quantitative easing after a housing bust.
Ironically, some of the banks that caused the housing bust are now
using cheap Fed money to buy up properties as rentals or for other
investment ventures. This is simply part of the plan in casino
economics. The house always wins.
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