A Global Recession? The Warning Signs Are Everywhere

More Signs The Economy Is Rolling Over All Around The World

Here’s SocGen with more thoughts:

• Turmoil in Cyprus is pushing the economic surprise index back into negative territory in the eurozone.
• Momentum is still declining in emerging markets as growth is slowing.
• Only the US is managing to maintain strong economic momentum and we expect economic surprises to remain positive over there, especially in H2 2013.

SocGen

This Chart Contradicts The #1 Fear People Have About The Economy

Following Friday’s jobs report, there’s been a renewed fear that the increase in the Payroll Tax is sapping the consumer.
The primary reason for this is that retail employment actually fell significantly in March, as seen in this chart.

FRED

Pork Prices Are Falling In The World’s Largest Pork Market

And the government is adding to its national pork reserves.
Chinese food inflation was up 2.7 percent year-over-year in March, down from six percent the previous month.

This decline was led by a 5.5 percent decline in pork prices.
China is the world’s largest pork consumer, and pork accounts for a significant chunk of the consumer basket.
Pork prices have been falling since the Lunar New Year holiday. Bank of America‘s Ting Lu expects pork prices to stay weak in coming months for four key reasons:

1. Sow breeding inventory has been at a “historically high level at around 20.7 million since September 2012.”
2. Despite the dead pigs found floating in Chinese rivers there has been no report of swine flu.
3. Demand for pork could be hit by the government’s crackdown on corruption, ‘gift giving’ and excesses that have hit the catering industry and high-end restaurants.
4. Corn prices have declined and corn is an important feed grain for pigs.

The hog-to-corn price ratio is below 6, “roughly a break-even level for pig farmers,” according to Lu. A lower ratio suggests that pork profitability has declined and it would make more sense to sell corn instead.

BAML

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Small Businesses Planning To Hire: 0%

In a shocking state of affairs, it would appear the stock market’s wealth effect is not rubbing off on the real economy. The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) shows 0% of their members planning to hire. One can only presume we need moar QE, moar deficits, and moar wealth effect.
Recovery? 0%!!

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JC Flowers: US, UK Inflation Best Way to Reduce Debt