Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, appeared
on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene and Alix Steel today, saying
that he sees “considerable downside risk” for U.S. stocks and
Faber went on to say, “We are creating bubbles and bubbles and
bubbles. This bubble will come to an end. My concern is that we are
going to have a systemic crisis where it is going to be very difficult
to hide.”
@BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE
Faber on whether he’s participated in the equity rise in the U.S.:
“I think that I was relatively positive about U.S. stocks since March
2009. I haven’t been shorting any stocks since 2009. The U.S. march is
up and consumer confidence is down. Emerging markets are performing
badly relative to the U.S.. the dollar is strong, indicating a
tightening of international liquidity. I do not think the U.S. market
will go up a lot from here. I rather think there is now considerable
downside risk.”
On whether Europe can repair its house:
“They can repair it and actually Europe now has a current account
surplus, which is positive. But obviously the economy is contracting. We
are in recession in Europe. This will have an impact on the corporate
profits of U.S. corporations as well because 40% of S&P earnings
come from overseas, but the bulk actually comes from Europe and not
emerging countries. I think that corporate profits in the U.S. will
continue to contract as they have actually — according to S&P —
contracted in the first quarter of 2012.”
On why gold hasn’t held up as a safe haven:
“When you print money, the money does not flow evenly into the
economic system. It stays essentially in the financial service industry
and among people that have access to these funds, mostly well-to-do
people. It does not go to the worker. I just mentioned that it doesn’t
flow evenly into the system. Now from time to time it will lift the
NASDAQ like between 1997 and March 2000. Then it lifted home prices in
the U.S. until 2007. Then it lifted the commodity prices in 2008 until
July 2008 when the global economy was already in recession. More
recently it has lifted selected emerging economies, stock markets in
Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, up four times from 2009 lows and now
the U.S. So we are creating bubbles and bubbles and bubbles. This bubble
will come to an end. My concern is that we are going to have a systemic
crisis where it is going to be very difficult to hide. Even in gold, it
will be difficult to hide.”
On whether the raiding of bank accounts in Cyprus set a precedent for Europe:
“MF Global, the depositors were also raided. It is nothing unusual.
Philosophically I believe that we shouldn’t have deposit insurances,
blanketed insurances by governments because it would force savers to be
very careful with which bank they would deposit the money. The good
banks would pay very low interest and take low risks and the banks that
take high risks would have high interest. By the way, in Cyrus, banks
were paying very high interest like in Lebanon at the present time I can
get 6% on my deposits. So the depositors should have known that
something is dangerous, but I would say that the principal now is very
important to understand. Until now, the bailouts in Europe and the U.S.
were at the expense of the taxpayer. And onwards, in my view, the
bailouts will also be at the expense of the asset holders, the
well-to-do people. So if you have money — like I am concerned — I am
sure the governments will one day take away 20-30% of my wealth.”
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