Germany and France suffered nasty
economic shocks today as fallout from the euro crisis pushed the two
biggest single currency members to the brink of recession.
The
German economy has slammed into reverse, with a 0.6 per cent
contraction in the final three months of 2012 - the country's worst
performance since the global financial crisis raged in 2009.
Worryingly for Berlin, it was exports, the motor of the economy, that did most of the damage.
Eurozone trouble: Dire economic figures from Germany and France show crisis has reached heart of euro bloc
France held up slightly better but its 0.3 per cent contraction at the end of last year also undershot forecasts.
If
Germany and France shrink again in the current quarter, they will be
officially back in recession - the same prospect that faces the UK,
which also contracted 0.3 per cent at the end of 2012. A recession means
two quarters in a row of negative growth.
Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn
King yesterday painted a bleak picture of high inflation combined with
stagnant economic growth when it comes to UK prospects.
The
17-member eurozone has slid deeper into recession after the region
suffered a 0.6 per cent decline in the final three months of last year.
It already shrank 0.1 per cent in the third quarter and 0.2 per cent in
the second quarter of 2012.
Financial markets saw losses deepen by
early afternoon trading as traders assessed the economic damage. The
FTSE 100 was down 41.4 points at 6,317.75, while Germany's DAX was 75.5
points lower at 7,636.4 and France's CAC 40 lagged 20.7 points at
3,677.8.
Evidence of
weakness at the heart of the eurozone took a toll on the single currency
- and offered some relief to sterling, which has seen brutal falls
since the start of the year as currency traders lose faith in the
British recovery.
The euro
fell to just above €1.16 to the pound (86p) this afternoon. However,
this was a minor correction considering sterling stood at just under
€1.22 against the euro at the beginning of 2013.
'So
it’s not only the UK that’s on the verge of dipping back into an
official recession but the other major economies just across the
Channel,' commented Angus Campbell of Capital Spreads.
'In
the longer term there isn’t a huge cause for concern as the recent data
has indicated that there is high probability that not only will the UK
avoid another official recession, but so will France and Germany.
'The
real worry is that the contractions are deeper than expectations and so
economists and politicians are still deluding themselves as to how the
economy is currently performing and how the "recovery" is materialising.
'Germany
is leading by example by imposing its own austerity measures upon
itself so to see the real powerhouse of the European economy suffer so
badly in the fourth quarter is a worry for the eurozone.'
Sir Mervyn King: Bank of England governor
yesterday painted a bleak picture of high inflation combined with
stagnant economic growth when it comes to UK prospects
Anita Paluch of Gekko Global Markets said: 'The latest numbers out point to an erosion of growth at the heart of Europe.
'Having said that though, let’s not forget – against the backdrop of the gloom and doom Germany still [looks pretty] good.
'On
the dimension of inflation rates and in terms of its labour market it
has all the conditions necessary to pull itself out and back on the
growth track.'
Howard
Archer of IHS Global Insight said although the eurozone recession
deepened in the fourth quarter of 2012, this should mark the low point.
'GDP
contraction of 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012 was deeper
than expected and brought a dismal end to a very difficult year for the
Eurozone.
'However,
the signs are that eurozone economic activity bottomed out around last
October and it is very possible that GDP could stop contracting in the
first quarter of 2013 with the overall economic environment
significantly helped by the European Central Bank’s Outright Monetary
Transactions [government bond buying] programme.
'Nevertheless,
even modest overall growth for the eurozone could well remain elusive
for some time to come with ongoing contraction in Spain and Italy set to
weigh down on the eurozone’s performance through 2013. France also
faces a difficult year. Germany, however, should see a clear return to
growth in the first quarter.'
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