SYDNEY—Australia's flood crisis continued to spread Sunday with parts of Victoria state in the country's southeast suffering record flooding, forcing the evacuation of 3,000 residents just as a major cleanup operation in flood-ravaged Queensland begins.
The flooding in Victoria was largely confined to the northwest of the state, affecting some 13,000 properties and leaving 3,000 people to seek refuge at evacuation centres, while parts of northern New South Wales also were impacted.
In the coal-rich state of Queensland, which has been beset by flooding since December with two-thirds of the state under water and more than 25 people dead, residents and businesses began a massive cleanup process. Researchers IBISWorld predicted the state's rebuilding would add 10 billion Australian dollars ($9.9 billion) in revenue to the construction industry over the next two years but expects sharp losses for industries such as agriculture, tourism, insurance, mining and transport and logistics.
Queensland accounts for some 20% of Australia's economy and makes up 60% of global coking coal exports. The rebuilding efforts in the wake of the disaster will add A$1.2 billion in revenue to the construction industry in the fiscal year to June 30, 2011, with an extra A$4.8 billion in fiscal 2012 and A$4 billion in fiscal 2013, IBISWorld said in a report Friday. Total revenue for the industry is estimated at A$295 billion in fiscal 2011, rising to A$319 billion in the year to June 30, 2013, it said.
"We expect significant lost productivity in the short term, with work currently stopped on approximately A$5 billion worth of commercial projects. In the long term, the cost of replacing destroyed infrastructure—restoring power lines, rebuilding roads and bridges and reinforcing buildings—will prompt a mini-boom once the water has subsided, particularly since state and Federal governments will be willing to fund rebuilding projects as soon as possible," said Robert Bryant, general manager, Australia, at IBISWorld. Outside of construction, however, the outlook is not so upbeat.
IBISWorld said Queensland's agricultural industry—particularly vegetable and fruit growers, cotton, sugar, grain and livestock farmers—will be hard hit, with total estimated losses of A$1.6 billion. With Queensland supplying 28% of Australia's fruit and vegetables, food inflation would result, it added.
The tourism industry will lose A$590 million in revenue in fiscal 2011, IBISWorld estimates, although it forecasts the sector will rebound in the following year.
General insurers will pay out about A$500 million in claims related to the floods, with the remainder covered by major global reinsurers, while the transport industry will likely lose A$467.4 million this month alone, it said.
"It is unclear how much damage has been caused to rail tracks and roads in Queensland, but the repair bill could exceed A$1 billion," said Mr. Bryant.
The floods will cost Queensland's mining industry A$2.5 billion in fiscal 2011, with A$2 billion of this a result of lost coal shipments as well as a A$500 million impact on mining contractors.
"While the lost coal production is unlikely to be recouped in coming months, the miners' losses will be partially offset by rising spot prices for coal, which will result in higher second-quarter coal contract prices," IBISWorld said.
The firm downgraded its forecast for Australia's gross domestic product to 2.6% in fiscal 2011 from a previous estimate of 2.9%.
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