Reviewing Last Month’s Forecasts of Doom

By Steve Goddard

Doomsday clock – Bulletin of The Atomic Scientists

Way back in June, The Guardian wrote up an excellent summary of the official forecasts of doom.

Scientists at the US National Snow and Ice Centre Data Centre (NSIDC) report today that Arctic sea ice – frozen seawater that floats on the ocean surface – is now at its lowest physical extent ever recorded for the time of year, suggesting that it is on course to break the previous record low set in 2007.

The chances of that happening are pretty close to zero.

Global surface temperatures may also be at a record high, according to leading climate scientist James Hansen and colleagues at the National Aeronautic Space Administration (Nasa).

If they keep adjusting temperatures upwards, they may eventually get to that point. But they are in a rush against time, because there is a strong La Niña building.

Hansen, credited with being one of the first scientists to study climate change, dismisses sceptics’ claims that global warming “stopped” in 1998. “Record high global temperature during the period with instrumental data was reached in 2010,” he writes.

Well, actually not.

“Hansen – Global warming on decadal timescales is continuing without let-up … we conclude that there has been no reduction in the global warming trend of 0.15-0.2C/decade that began in the late 1970s.”

Reality differs. None of the major indices showed much warming over the last decade.

As a result of high sea surface temperatures, the Atlantic hurricane season – which officially started this week – is expected to be one of the most intense in years. Last week NOAA predicted 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes – three to seven of which were likely to be “major”, with winds of at least 111mph.

The hurricane season has been quite average so far, and Sea Surface Temperatures are plummeting, as forecast by WUWT six months ago.

These same people fail with their forecasts of doom over and over, and just keep turning up the volume. Meanwhile Antarctic ice continues at record highs. Maybe The Guardian needs to do a story about that?