Gov. Haley Barbour said last week that April revenue was 8.5 percent below estimates - a $45.1 million shortfall.
However, Barbour says there will not be a need for additional budget cuts. He has already trimmed spending five times since the fiscal year began July 1.
Mississippi's tax collections have missed the mark 19 of the past 20 months. March was the exception.
"These numbers confirm what we have known all along: the deep global recession continues to affect our state's revenue, and it may take years for collections to fully return to pre-recessionary levels," said Barbour.
The April revenue report compounds another problem facing state government. Also in April, the National Conference of State Legislatures warned its members - including Mississippi lawmakers - that the anticipated congressional extension of an additional six months of enhanced federal matching funds for Medicaid, the so-called FMAP funds, that had appeared certain weeks ago was now "on the ropes." NCSL urged legislators across the country to bring increased pressure on member of Congress to extend the additional Medicaid funds.
For Mississippi, those additional FMAP funds would represent about $187 million. When lawmakers adjourned the 2010 regular session, they agreed on a $5.5 billion Fiscal Year 2011 budget with a contingency budget that would include the additional FMAP funds if Congress acts prior to Dec. 31 to make them available.
If Congress fails to provide the additional FMAP funds, there will be far less flexibility in the FY 2011 budget. That reality will mean that public education at all levels, corrections, mental health and public safety agencies will suffer along with Medicaid.
Congressional wavering over the enhanced FMAP funds demonstrates the wisdom of crafting a budget that assumed those funds would not be received. There are 18 states that enacted budgets with the anticipated additional funds included.
In Pennsylvania, increased FMAP funding would have meant an additional $895 million. States that enacted budgets that bet the come on FMAP will be broken before they actually become working documents.
Mississippi was also wise to keep a reasonable amount of money in the state's "rainy day fund" and in the state Health Care Trust Fund for future needs.
The FY 2012 state budget will be one that enjoys no stimulus funds support and projections are that revenues could be off to the point of forcing budget cuts that are more than 20 percent less than the original FY 2010 appropriations.
Reserve funds will be precious until state revenues are once again stable and growing.
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