Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 Index are trading below their 200-day moving average. NASDAQ bucked the trend bouncing back above it 200-day MA.
Many analysts in the technical community were unsure if the ‘flash trade’ lows were actual prices which should be included in their analysis, or merely a ‘machine’ blip which can be ignored. As the days have progressed, however, it’s become increasingly clear that the flash trade lows registered in the major averages were indeed real prices and are close to being retested.
My opinion has been that the numbers were real and should be included. The charts of the Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ below show that even during those infamous 10 minutes of panic, buyers entered the market close to major support levels (the February lows).In all three examples, the February lows held.
After the initial reactionary bounce back, all three major averages resumed their downward trend and appear headed for a test of the ‘flash trade’ lows. Support for the major averages lies between the February and ‘flash trade’ lows.
The chart of the DJIA below includes the RSI indicator which works well to gauge overbought/oversold conditions. The market has moved up each time it reached oversold levels and we are close to another such reading which would likely correspond with DJIA prices somewhere in the range of the above mentioned support zone.
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