IMPLODING equities, exploding credit default swaps, soaring gold and slumping oil — if, at any time over the past 18 months, it seemed that markets were in the grip of lunacy, it may be because investors are, technically, lunatics.
The market mayhem since the global financial meltdown began in 2008 has provided fertile soil for proponents of a branch of investment theory which holds that market cycles move in phase with the Moon.
Now, backed with decades of data and behaviour that can no longer be explained by purely rational analysis, the lunar theory has slipped into the mainstream.
In a piece of research that involved 14 of its senior analysts from across five leading financial centres scrutinising data from 32 leading indices over several decades, Macquarie Securities has arrived at a startling discovery: the two days on either side of the new lunar month represent most of the positive returns on equity markets for the next four weeks.
“Using data since 1988 for a wide variety of indices,” the report concluded, “it is quite clear that a strong surge in returns can be seen leading into the turn of the (lunar) month.”
The analysts are quick to dismiss the idea that the theory applies only to markets in Asia — a part of the world where belief in the lunar theory, especially in Hong Kong and Japan, is better established.
“The effect is not just an Asian effect, it happens globally,” the Macquarie report said.
No comments:
Post a Comment