Friday, June 19, 2009

U.S., Europe Try Good-Cop, Bad-Cop Approach

European states are taking a considerably more aggressive line toward Tehran's clerical leaders than the Obama administration as Iran's postelection crisis deepens, fueling the ire of U.S. Republicans and some democracy activists.

The approach suggests an unusual reversal among the Americans and Europeans from recent history, with Washington emerging as a relatively passive voice and the European Union assuming the role of Tehran's chief scold. But the dynamic also is being welcomed by many European officials involved in Iran diplomacy as an effective approach against Tehran.

The pressure being applied by European states with substantial diplomatic and economic ties to Iran will be more difficult for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to shrug off in coming months, said these officials.

Meanwhile, a measured position by President Barack Obama could rob Tehran's leaders of a foil to use against the growing reformist movement, though the government this week nevertheless accused the U.S. of helping to foment unrest.

"The Europeans have been out very vociferously defending the rights of Iranians and protesting the irregularities. To me, that makes better sense," said Suzanne Maloney, a Brookings Institution Iran analyst and former State Department official. "They have the presence on the ground, they have the relationships with the Iranians, they can potentially make a difference."

Since charges of electoral fraud emerged last week, some EU states have openly challenged the results, while Mr. Obama has chosen his words carefully.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy this week called the election a "fraud." German Chancellor Angela Merkel condemned a "wave of arrests" by the government and cited "signs of irregularities." After a meeting on Monday, EU foreign ministers called on Tehran to "address and investigate" allegations of vote fraud.

Iran shot back Thursday with ire usually reserved for the U.S. "Foreign support for these trouble-makers and anarchists under the cover of supporting democracy and the voice of the Iranian people raises questions and cannot be justified," said a statement from Iran's Embassy in Brussels.

At a Brussels summit Thursday, EU diplomats said they saw it as their turn to take a stand while the U.S. handles the delicate negotiations with Tehran that they expect in coming months over the nuclear issue. "This time around, we know that it's Obama's problem to deal with," said a French diplomat. "That frees us up to be a bit more critical than usual."

U.S. and European officials said that there wasn't any concerted decision between them to develop a good-cop, bad-cop scenario. But they stressed that they discuss Iran every day. "There are regular contacts, we talk all the time," said French spokeswoman Marine de Carne. For the moment, she says, "we are respecting the outcome of the elections."

The real fault line in international diplomacy, said U.S. and European officials, pits on one side Washington and the EU, which have complained about freedom-of-speech restrictions in Iran, and on the other Russia and China, which have refrained from criticizing Iranian authorities in recent days.

To be sure, France has been outspoken on Iran for some time. As far back as 2007, then-President Jacques Chirac caused a stir by warning Iran that if it were ever to use a nuclear weapon against Israel, Tehran would be wiped out within seconds.

Britain, which shared responsibility with the U.S. for the 1953 coup that brought the Shah to power, has mostly taken a similar line to Washington's, judging that any attempt to side with defeated challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi would backfire.

When the U.K., France and Germany began talks with Tehran over its nuclear program, the U.S. administration opposed the effort, which offered Tehran civilian nuclear technology and trade privileges if it would abandon its efforts to produce nuclear fuel. With no alternatives available, Washington became supportive.

Though years of negotiations produced no result, U.S. officials said the cooperation with Europe contributed to a unified stance on the electoral crisis. "We are pretty close together on substance and tone," said a senior U.S. official working on Iran.

As they arrived at the Brussels summit, EU foreign ministers were expected to draft a new policy statement on Iran. But after dishing out their criticism earlier in the week, "everybody's being prudent, and waiting for a recount or some other development," says Delphine Colard, a spokeswoman for the Belgian ministry of foreign affairs.

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