Saturday, March 22, 2014

Ellis Martin Report with David Morgan–How Speculative Stocks are Selected

In this edition of The Ellis Martin Report, analyst David Morgan discusses his strategy for selecting speculative mining stocks in a challenging market. He also teases us with news about a company that is using some promising technology in the business.
http://www.ellismartinreport.com
http://www.themorganreport.com
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This segment is sponsored by El Tigre Silver Corp (TSX-V:ELS)(OTCQX:EGRTF)
This video was originally posted on Mar 11, 2014 and re-posted with permission from from Ellis Martin.SUBSCRIBE (It’s FREE!) to “Finance and Liberty” for more interviews and financial insight ? http://bit.ly/Subscription-Link 
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The Emperor’s New Clothes on Steroids

by DAVID MACARAY
Some years ago, it was reported that Donald Ivestor, CEO of the Coca-Cola Corporation, had considered equipping the company’s vending machines with built-in thermometers, so that, on the hottest days of summer, the price of a Coke could automatically be raised. One of those supply-and-demand moves we’ve all heard about.
Apparently, Donald Ivestor was even quoted as saying that such a practice was a “fair” response to the dynamics of the marketplace. It was only after word of this gouging enterprise leaked out, and consumers hit the ceiling, that Ivestor pretended the company had never considered it.
In 1995, I had a conversation with the plant manager of a Fortune 100 company (I’ll call him “Fred”) regarding executive compensation. This was but one of many discussions Fred and I had had over the years, with me taking the view that we must have lost our ever-lovin’ minds, because CEO compensation had reached absurd proportions, and Fred taking the view that the only way to attract “quality people” was to offer a salary commensurate to their talents.
This particular conversation was focused specifically on the CEO of United Way. A recent newspaper story had reported that United Way’s CEO was not only being paid something on the order of $400,000 per year, but was being squired around in a chauffeured limousine, as if he were a Saudi Arabian oil sheik rather than some guy who was running a charitable organization.
Fred adamantly insisted that, given the “realities of the market place,” you wouldn’t find anyone who was sufficiently qualified to run United Way unless you were willing to pay them $500,000. I jokingly said, “You mean you couldn’t find some swinging dick out there who could do the job for, say, a measly $300,000?” Not realizing I was mocking him, he emphatically stated that No, you would not. Good god, the man was serious. He honestly believed $500,000 was the bare minimum.
One of the games we union guys used to play was speculating on how long a person—a clever, motivated but entirely “unqualified” person—could get away with pretending to be the plant manager before he was exposed as an imposter. Put him behind the plant manager’s desk, dress him in plant manager’s duds, give him a $90 haircut, and see how long he could fake it.
We’d all seen Fred in action. While he was a bright, honorable man, his management style wasn’t complicated. He asked a lot of questions, he praised people, he did a lot of delegating, and he used a lot of “management speak.” In our opinion, once a person mastered that corporate lingo, he would be home free. In our opinion, he’d be able to fake the job for a minimum of weeks, if not months.
Of course, pretending to be somebody you’re not applies only to managerial positions, because you could never hope to get away with it on a job that demanded demonstrable skills. For instance, you couldn’t pretend to be a bricklayer or shipping checker or seamstress. People would realize you were a fraud within 30 seconds. The same goes for a musician, pottery maker, and electrician.
Alas, it seems that the only jobs where you can trick people into believing that you are who you say you—despite any discernible evidence to prove it—happen to be big-time managerial jobs, jobs that come with generous salaries. How ironic is that?
David Macaray, an LA playwright and author (“It’s Never Been Easy:  Essays on Modern Labor,” 2nd edition), is a former union rep.  He can be reached at dmacaray@earthlink.net

Illinois to Follow California's Lead With 'Millionaire Tax' Referendum


Michael Madigan, the all-powerful Speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives, announced Thursday that he would direct the Democrat-controlled state legislature to place a referendum on the November ballot that would raise taxes on millionaires by three percent. The measure is similar to a referendum that California Gov. Jerry Brown convinced voters to pass in November 2012, and which helped the state achieve a budget surplus.

Madigan, a Democratic Party boss whom most regard as the true ruler of the state--surpassing Democrat Gov. Pat Quinn--would need to convince three-fifths of both houses to pass the tax hike as a constitutional amendment before it could be put to the voters.
However, as Ray Long, Monique Garcia and Maura Zurich of the Chicago Tribune note, "Madigan holds enough Democratic votes that he could muscle the measure through."
Democrats hold supermajorities in both the House and Senate in Illinois, thanks partly to the fact that Madigan redrew the districts after the 2010 Census--and did so without fear of opposition from the governor after Quinn defeated his Republican challenger.
The state has continued on a downward fiscal spiral, and Illinois has the most underfunded pension system of any state in the Union, as well as the third-highest unemployment rate.
Madigan is unfazed by research that proves that taxes on millionaires encourage them to leave the state, as has been the case in New Jersey.
"Well, if they’re in Illinois today, they’re probably so much in love with Illinois that they’re not going to leave," he said, according to the Tribune--a backhanded acknowledgement of how poorly the state is already doing.
Madigan may also be encouraged by California's example, where millionaires have largely stayed put, even though Gov. Brown's tax increase on those earning more than $250,000 has helped the state achieve the second-highest tax rate in the nation. However, Illinois does not enjoy California's comfortable climate.
The real goal of the proposed referendum may not be fiscal, but political. The winner of the Republican primary this week was billionaire Bruce Rauner, a political newcomer who enjoys close ties to Democrats such as Chicago mayor Rahm Emanuel, yet has vowed to take on the public sector unions and the Madigan machine.
The referendum is just one way in which Democrats will remind voters of Rauner's immense wealth, in a repeat of President Barack Obama's re-election strategy against Mitt Romney.
Rauner is hoping to put his own referendums on the ballot, including one for term limits, which would destroy the basis of Madigan's power.

The Metamorphosis: No-Job Job Fair

Like Gregor Samsa, I’ve turned into a giant beetle. In The Metamorphosis, Franz Kafka tells the story of Samsa, who awakens one morning to find himself as a big cockroach. His voice has changed. His family no longer understands him and is repelled.
Samsa tries to adapt. His room is cleared so he can more easily scuttle up and down the walls. But everyone he comes in contact with is driven away. Unable to work, his family’s finances are crippled and they try to bring in boarders. The tenants get a glimpse of Gregor and run.
He comes to the conclusion it would be best for everyone if he died. So Gregor withers away. The giant dead beetle is discovered and disposed of.
That’s what the job market, the current economy, does to you. Once unemployed, you’re repulsive, more and more so the longer it lasts. If you’re over fifty, you are in a shunned class.
Few want to have anything to do with you. You lose friends, perhaps make one or two new ones — others who, like you, have found they’ve morphed into untouchables.
I decided to share this with you. It’s not an unobvious thing, particularly after the latest job fair experience at the Convention Center in downtown Los Angeles.
This was a STEM job fair, you know — STEM — that universal magic word meant to mean “science jobs,” uttered by people who are either lying or who don’t know from excrement.
There were about twenty “businesses” at the STEM job fair. Four rows, five kiosk/displays per row, with one on the end for on-the-spot interviews. There were no on-the-spot interviews during the time I was there.
I suspect there were none during the fair’s four hour duration.
And that’s because there weren’t any firms that were obviously looking to make hires in science. What they were mostly interested in was public relations, a kind of social networking where the human resources people sent to staff the booths hand out glossy paper and refer you to the company’s website to upload a resume.
The Environmental Protection Agency was there and was honest about it. The reps said up front they weren’t making any hires, that all of it was processed through usajobs dot gov, the omnibus website for federal hiring.
They were taking e-mail addresses so that you would received blasts when something opened up.
A firm that handled logistical and civilian staffing services for the US Air Force was looking for interns, presumably free. Which, in the current economic climate, isn’t really a job at all, but a way for a private sector company to offer outsourced contract work at a lower rate than the military would have to pay if it actually had to hire and train its own people.
Boeing was the big cheese corporation everyone was in a line to talk to. Boeing doesn’t do science. It does jets and arms manufacturing, engineering applications.
As far as I could tell, the Boeing desk wasn’t actually spreading any love to all the people hoping for some.
There was also a company, another private sector firm doing work for the US military. They were, according to their display, looking for people who could help develop underwater minefields and, reciprocally, sensors for the detection of the same.
This should make you laugh. Yes, everyone gets science and math schooling so they can get in on the exploding American industry of naval mine warfare.
It’s an inspiring vision of the future.
Picture a remake of The Graduate, a young man by the swimming pool in southern California for an evening formal party. A wealthy corporate executive puts his arm around Ben:
“I have one word to say to you, just one word … are you listening? Minefields. ‘Nuff said! That’s a deal.”
At least four of the slots at the STEMS job fair made no bones about not being there to look for workers at all. Three were from local colleges looking to enroll people in graduate work. So, like, you could spend another year and a half or longer in school, perhaps going deeper into debt before emerging into the modern labor market.
Another was the Employment Development Department of California, the state agency present to inform job-seekers without jobs of what they might be able to take advantage of in terms of their unemployment benefit and further re-training programs.
It’s really no secret that job fairs in the US are more aptly described as places where many frustrated people go, dressed in business attire, to totally waste their time.
You can hand out resumes but, for the most part, it’s desperation participation in more American corporate scamming.
One suspects there is a corporate federal income tax deduction that can be invoked once a year (or perhaps even a subsidy to apply for) if one can document some trivial outreach to the American labor pool.
It is a hard thing to make people understand. Once you’ve been transformed into the American economy’s equivalent of insect vermin, you cannot make anyone understand what is happening. You even have a hard time explaining it to yourself.
Will you be ready for the metamorphosis?

Ron Paul: Ultimately The Dollar Will Be Rejected


Detroit may raise fines for parking violations




Detroit pays $32 to process a $30 parking violation and hasn't adjusted rates since 2001. (Clarence Tabb Jr. / The Detroit News)
Detroit — For the first time in more than a decade, the city may increase its parking fines and come down harder on repeat offenders who don’t pay up.
The recommendations, which would bump the current parking fines of $20, $30 and $100 per ticket to a two-tiered structure of $45 and $150, are among the revenue-generating strategies recommended by Detroit’s restructuring consultants.
The proposed reforms come as Emergency Manager Kevyn Orr awaits an analysis of the city’s parking assets and contemplates spinning off Municipal Parking, a department that generally breaks even or fails to bring in enough revenue to cover its expenses.
The city is paying $32 to issue and process a $30 parking violation, and it hasn’t adjusted rates since 2001. On top of that, about half of Detroit’s 3,404 parking meters are not operating properly at any given time, says Orr’s spokesman, Bill Nowling.
“It’s another example of the old, antiquated system and processes the city has that creates impediments for anyone trying to do their job,” Nowling said.
Detroit Chief Operating Officer Gary Brown is advocating for the changes, which he says would bring in an additional $6 million per year and $60 million over the 10-year plan of adjustment Orr is proposing for the bankrupt city.
“That’s real money,” Brown said. “If the asset is truly an asset and making money, no one is going to want to do anything with it.”
Brown said the ticket increases would not unduly burden Detroit residents, since 70 percent of the fines are written to nonresident offenders. The city also expects to offer a one-time amnesty program that’s commensurate with any increase.
Brown said it’s unclear how much is currently owed to the city in unpaid parking fines. Some fines are more than 10 years old, he said, surpassing the statute of limitations and “should be written off.”

License renewals prevented

Besides the ticket hike, the proposal seeks to prevent motorists with three or more unpaid fines from renewing their driver’s licenses.
Brown said the actions can be implemented without additional expenditures, staffing or amendments to state or local laws, but they will need City Council approval.
At-large City Council member Saunteel Jenkins supports an increase, “especially since it’s costing the city more to write and process tickets than the actual parking fines themselves.”
The city and 36th District Court, however, should work with those who cannot afford to pay the tickets outright, she said.
“The fine structure here is one that continues to build,” Jenkins said. “For people already financially distressed, how much more of a burden will this place on them?”
Councilwoman Raquel Castaneda-Lopez noted the city’s current rates are below other comparable cities and an increase would not unfairly burden Detroiters.
“The proposed increases are just one piece of a comprehensive strategy to increase revenue within the Municipal Parking Department,” Castaneda-Lopez, who represents District 6, wrote in an email to The News.
Last year, the most expensive fine in the country for expired parking meters was $72 in downtown San Francisco; Detroit was among the lowest at $20, according to a survey by SFPark.org.
Chicago had the highest hourly on-street meter rate of $6.50. Detroit’s was on the lower end and among about a dozen cities that charged $1 per hour, the study found.
Detroit has considered outsourcing its parking system for years; a 2011 report showed the city could make $22 million to $65 million annually through the lease or sale of parking assets. Years prior, elected officials argued it could be worth even more.

Towing fee nearly tripled

The city has tried other methods to boost its parking coffers.
In May, the City Council amended an ordinance that nearly tripled Detroit’s towing fee from $215 from $75. The rate does not cover storage.
In his debt-cutting plan filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court last month, Orr noted that the department’s ability to raise revenue has been crippled by budget cuts, headcount reductions and unfavorable work rules. The challenges have led to reduced patrols and a drop in the issuance of tickets from 535,000 in the 2002 fiscal year to 323,000 in 2012.
The department has 90 full-time employees between its two divisions — the Auto Parking System and Parking Violations Bureau.
The parking system is responsible for the operation and maintenance of seven parking garages and certain on-street parking spaces. The projected revenue in the 2013 fiscal year for the parking fund, an enterprise fund that services the city’s parking bonds, was about $12.9 million. It’s expenses were expected to be about the same, according to a bankruptcy court disclosure statement.
The violations bureau enforces on-street parking ordinances and issues, processes and collects parking tickets. Its projected revenue for the current fiscal year is $11.4 million. After expenses, it will result in a $3.6 million surplus for the city’s general fund.
In fiscal year 2013, the city received payments of $11.1 million into the Automobile Parking Fund and it made payments totaling $11.2 million.
Consultants from Chicago-based Desman Associates have been evaluating the city’s parking assets for more than a month, as part of an up to $175,000, three-phase study, Nowling said.
The parking and transportation firm is expected to produce a 30-year financial model that lays out the department’s worth and cost of upkeep. Desman will also document the existing assets, gather industry trends and identify revenue enhancement options. Findings are anticipated by mid-April.

Data driving Orr's decision

In the final stage, Nowling said, Desman will provide the city with options for selling or leasing parking assets and, if needed, could prepare and facilitate the bidding process.
“(Orr) is agnostic as to what the organizational structure is; only, it has to prove a net benefit to the city,” he said. “He’s going to let the data drive it.”
Orr first raised the possibility of leasing or selling off the parking department last summer.
The move is fairly new in the country, but could be a viable option for Detroit, said Leonard Gilroy, director of government reform at the California-based libertarian Reason Foundation.
“In a situation like this, where Detroit is with bankruptcy, you have to have your assets on the table,” said Gilroy, a privatization expert who has researched municipal leasing.
Other cities, including Chicago, have profited from spinning off parking.
Chicago received $1.2 billion upfront after entering into a 75-year lease of 36,000 parking meters in 2008. But the deal led to five years of rate hikes and reports the private company that took over the system will make 10 times the amount it paid the city.
Indianapolis entered into a 50-year lease deal for its meters.
Because parking is an enterprise and not a core government function, Gilroy said, off-loading it helps transfer a major risk.
“You are shedding risk, you are shedding costs and lots of responsibilities,” he said.
But Eric Foster, a governmental affairs consultant, has advocated against a lease or sale of Detroit’s parking assets, arguing the department’s debt load is minimal and it’s in a position to operate profitably.
“If structured in a good way, it will continue to be a revenue generator, pay for itself and contribute to the general fund,” said Foster, of West Bloomfield-based LB3 Management, LLC.
No matter the direction, Brown said the city is looking for funds that it will invest in replacing Detroit’s broken meters.
“We are not going to just let half the meters be down,” he said.

Expired meter fines

Fines in San Francisco’s downtown are the highest in the country, while Detroit, at $20, is near the bottom. Chicago has the highest hourly meter rates. Detroit is on the lower end and among about a dozen others that charge $1 for a top hourly meter rate.
San Francisco (downtown): $72
Chicago: $65
Seattle: $44
Philadelphia: $36
Detroit: $20
Nashville: $11
St. Louis: $10
Hourly meter rates
Chicago: $6.50
New York: $5
Seattle: $4
Dallas: $2
Phoenix: $1.50
Detroit: $1
St. Louis: $0.75
Source: SFPark.org

F-35 News. Spending frozen on the troubled jet.

via Gazetta El Sud
Rome, March 20 - Italy has frozen spending on its F-35 jet fighters program, pending a parliamentary review of military spending, says Defence Minister Roberta Pinotti. Her comments during a television interview with La7 Wednesday night, came several days after Premier Matteo Renzi said that defence spending - including the budget for the F-35 program - was under review. This could include three billion euros in potential savings for defence budgets. The government could decide to trim its Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets' budget, which is currently about 11.8 billion euros over 45 years beginning in 2015. "Today we suspended payment of installments," on the F-35, Pinotti told the program The Barbarian Invasion. "We are having a moratorium, pending the results of an inquiry by Parliament," she added.
A certain blogger I know told me I was full of shit when I posted news that the F-35 would be cut to 45 jets by the Italians.

He went through a long song and dance about how this was just a minor thing and that they would be back in the fold buying 90 odd jets shortly.

That blogger failed to take into account current economic conditions worldwide.

Globalization is breaking down.  Economies around the world are on the verge of bankruptcy.  In short.  Everyone is is in a hurtlocker and defense spending is the first sacrificial lamb of the masses.

The Netherlands was first, Italy is second, and I predict that the frugal Canadians will be third.  But they won't be the last.  Even the USAF will be hit with the reality bat and the F-35 order will be cut.

I say again.

The death spiral is here.