Will the Bank of England now consider a Bank Rate cut?

by Shaun Richards
Over the past 48 hours or so the international environment has changed quite considerably as China for the second day in a row has devalued its currency. My subject of yesterday has seen an official fixing move of 1.6%% to follow yesterday’s 1.9%. However for the moment I would like to leave that hanging in the background as we look at UK monetary policy because today brings the monthly update on the labour market and in particular on average earnings or wages. With UK economic growth looking solid in 2015 then the Bank of England will have its nose to the ground on the subject of wage growth in the UK.
UK wage outlook
We have been update twice this week on the outlook for UK wages. The CIPD (Chartered Institute for Personnel and Development) offered what has become a familiar picture on Monday.

workers in occupations where there are skills or labour shortages and thriving sectors such as finance and construction seem likely to get pay increases well above current inflation. However, at the other end of the scale, many workers in areas such as manufacturing and public sector, are seeing only a very modest increase in living standards.  In between, the bulk of workers will continue to see moderate growth in their pay packets.

A typical increase is seen as being in the range 1% to 2% which is hardly the white heat of wage growth albeit that it does exceed official estimates of consumer inflation meaning that we have some real wage growth. However it too is welcome but thin.
A welcome piece of news in the CIPD report was that employers are looking to take on more young people (16-24) in the coming months. The optimistic view of that is that they are planning to invest in them and up skill whilst those of a more pessimistic nature might wonder if the upcoming living wage rules which have a lower level for under 25s have provoked a shift.
Resolution Foundation
They now publish a monthly update on what they think is happening on the wages front.

The analysis, which models recent labour market data to forecast short-term trends in regular (non-bonus) pay, predicts that average weekly earnings growth will stand somewhere between 2.7 and 2.8 per cent in the three months to June. That would leave it broadly in line with May’s figure of 2.8 per cent – which was the joint fastest level of real pay growth in eight years.

This is both simultaneously good and bad. The sunny side is that we seem to be sustaining solid wage growth which is pretty much real wage growth compared to official inflation and about 1% lower than that if you use the RPI. The cloudier theme comes if you consider how strong the quantity measures of the UK labour market have been and wonder if this is as good as it gets on this front. As we stand they are somewhat downbeat on prospects.

But the Foundation warns that pre-crisis earnings are unlikely to be restored before the end of the decade.

What about the official data?
They showed that the Resolution Foundation is a good guide to developments or at least it has been in a so far short life.

Comparing April to June 2015 with a year earlier, pay for employees in Great Britain increased by 2.4% including bonuses and by 2.8% excluding bonuses.

In real terms the numbers are still positive just not as good as last month.

Comparing the three months to June 2015 with the same period in 2014, real AWE (total pay) grew by 2.4%, compared with 3.3% in the three months to May.

If we look deeper into the data we see that for the single month of June total pay growth fell to 1.9% as weekly wages fell to £488 from the £492 of May. This can be an erratic series but it is hard to ignore an outright lower number which reduces the annual rate of growth.
What numbers should we use?
We need to use as many sources as possible as even the UK establishment seems to have lost a fair bit of faith in the statistics it produces. They have appointed a man who used to be Mr.Bean but is now Sir Charlie to look into them.

As an economy develops, the traditional ways of thinking about it cease to be so relevant,” he said, flagging concerns that official numbers may be incomplete in an internet age.

He feels that the numbers may have been relevant for the Great Depression of the last century but not now. I am very unclear where he is going with that as many of the numbers we use as much more recent developments. Perhaps he will discover that as he does his research.
However the fundamental point is that we are currently relying on numbers which are not especially reliable.
Employment and Unemployment
These have been strong over past couple of years or so but we are presently in the midst of something of a hiccup.

Comparing April to June 2015 with January to March 2015, the number of people in employment fell by 63,000 (to reach 31.03 million), the number of unemployed people increased by 25,000 (to reach 1.85 million).

So employment has fallen and unemployment risen albeit in small quantities compared to past gains. If we drill into the detail we see that unemployment rate rose in April (5.7%) and May (5.8%) before falling in June (5.5%). So perhaps a blip but we do know that so far the lowest level for the unemployment rate was February’s 5.4%.
Mark Carney
At this point it is hard not to think of his “sooner rather than later” statement with regards to Bank Rate rises with today’s headline numbers showing fading wage growth, a dip in employment and a rise in unemployment! Regular readers will know my thoughts on this front but is it rude to point out this piece of research from the Bank of England? The emphasis is mine

In this post, we show an estimate derived from a standard macroeconomic model which suggests that the (real) natural rate fell very sharply during the financial crisis, perhaps to as low as -6%, and that, despite a marked recovery since 2012, it remains around zero.

David Miles
David gave something of a valedictory interview to Bloomberg earlier this week and told us this.

David Miles said there was a “reasonable” argument for the Bank of England to raise interest rates at its meeting last week

As he was someone who voted for more QE just as the UK boomlet began it may be possible or even probable that David has topped and tailed things and certainly does not live up to the lyrics of Pete Townsend.

I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles
Oh yeah

China Crisis
Whilst this something which is only two days old it has reverberated around financial markets as they quickly switched from “move along nothing to see here” to some significant changes. For example the modern safe haven of Germany’s two-year bond yield has fallen to -0.29% which is a new record low. Also I note that the Rupee of India is being hit as we consider the impact on emerging markets. If we consider that this could be quite an exporting of deflation then you might like to consider this from the July MPC Minutes.

For these members, the uncertainty caused by recent developments in Greece was a very material factor in their decisions:

If they thought that about Greece which is only around 2% of the Euro area what might they do following a genuine China Crisis.
As to today’s devaluation then our musical accompaniment comes from Britney Spears.

Hit me baby one more time

And Carly Simon

Its coming around again

Comment
Individual labour market reports can be misleading but we see that the UK numbers are maybe signalling something of a peak is happening now or in the case of unemployment has happened. Also as a counterpoint to the wage growth numbers it appears that productivity has improved as we have higher output with lower labour input. So even before we get to worries about China the Bank Rate hike may well be fading and find itself replaced by thoughts as to how close to 0% the statement below is?

it remains around zero.

Should it turn out to be 0% then Mark Carney will be below his lower bound of 0.5%. Perhaps he might contact the Riksbank of Sweden? Also he might want to avoid those who have followed his advice and fixed their mortgage rate.

Italian Bond Futures Flash-Crash Into Close

Fat-Finger, Flash-Crash, or Forced Liquidation... either way, something broke in the Italian bond futures market...
Fat finger?


or forced liquidation?


Charts: Bloomberg

Carlos Slim, World’s 2nd Richest Man, Mexico’s Biggest Oligarch, Master of Slimlandia, Suddenly Loses Billions

By Don Quijones, Spain & Mexico, editor at WOLF STREET.
The world’s second richest man, Carlos Slim Helú, is doing something he hasn’t done for a long time: losing lots of money. According to El Financiero, Slim’s holdings are down $7.2 billion so far this year.
While that amount represents one-tenth of Slim’s total worth at the beginning of this year ($77 billion), it’s enough to hurt. After all, when one’s wealth is already so vast that it could buy up pretty much anything on the planet, including small nations, reputation is what ultimately counts.
Until recently, Slim’s reputation as an investor was virtually flawless. His ability to turn just about anything, from banking, retail and airlines to mining, printing, construction, restaurants and telecoms – particularly telecoms – into fortunes was unrivalled. But now losses are piling up. And is his reputation is getting dented.
Losing the Midas Touch?
Slim’s gold mining company, Minera Frisco SAB, has tumbled 53% this year, the worst performance among 90 international peers tracked by Bloomberg:
Mexico City-based Frisco has had only one profitable quarter in the past nine, and this year’s 6.7 percent slide in gold prices is just making things worse.
Slim owns 78 percent of Frisco, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, so he’s the biggest loser from the stock’s collapse; it has contributed to a $7.2 billion tumble in his fortune this year, the most among 400 rich people tracked by Bloomberg.
Laura Villanueva, an analyst at Mexican brokerage Monex Casa de Bolsa SA, sees more losses ahead for Frisco as the company struggles with falling output and a high debt load.
Frisco is not the only Slim-owned investment vehicle to have hit the wall. U.S.-traded shares of his telephone behemoth, America Movil SAB, have lost 12%, primarily as a result of losses in the Mexican peso and recent regulatory changes in Mexico. Shares in his bank, Grupo Financiero Inbursa SAB, have also fallen.
Meanwhile, his $74 million investment in the ailing Spanish construction behemoth FCC is increasingly looking like another bad bet. When Slim bought 25.5% of the company back in November last year, at an average price of €9.75 euros a share, many analysts hailed it as yet another piece of shrewd business from a man famed for snapping up bargains in the midst of panics and sell-offs. He even had to fight off interest from fellow billionaire investor George Soros.
But now FCC’s shares are languishing at €8.695, over 10% down from their original price, and rumors are fast spreading that the company could be on the verge of another debt restructuring and capital increase. For Slim, that could mean a further dilution of his capital and yet more squandered funds.
Little Sympathy in Slimlandia
While Slim is often celebrated in the international press for both his sharp business acumen and generous philanthropy, his recent misfortunes are unlikely to elicit much sympathy back home in Mexico, a country that boasts some of the worst inequality rates on the planet.
While Slim may not be the primary cause of that inequality, he is certainly one of the primary beneficiaries and arguably its most visible symptom — so much so that George Grayson, a Mexico expert at the College of William & Mary in Virginia, recently rechristened Mexico: “It’s virtually cradle to grave. It’s Slimlandia. You are engulfed by Slim in Mexico.”
Slim owns controlling interests in at least 222 different companies and minor stakes in countless more. His vast business empire is influential in just about every sector imaginable of the Mexican economy and accounts for a mind-blowing 40% of the listings on the Mexican Stock Exchange. As Paul Harris writes in The Guardian, the sheer scope of his holdings is breathtaking:
It is virtually impossible for Mexicans to go about their lives without in some way contributing to his fortune… They are born in Slim’s hospitals, drive on his Tarmac, smoke his tobacco. They build their houses from his cement, eat in his restaurants, talk on his phones, and sleep in bed linen made in his factories.
As I wrote in Slimlandia: Mexico in the Grip of Oligarchs, Slim is not Mexico’s only billionaire. There are 15 others on Forbe’s latest billionaire’s list, which this year does not include the fugitive Mexican drug trafficker Chapo Guzman, who bizarrely was featured on the list four separate times before a public outcry in Mexico put an end to the practice.
Together these 16 individuals – half of whom are or were owners of former state-run enterprises – boast a combined wealth of $144 billion, equivalent to 11.4% of Mexico’s GDP of $1.26 trillion in 2014.
Putting the Robber Barons to Shame
Even after his recent setbacks, Slim’s holdings account for just under half of that amount: his total wealth of approximately $70 billion is the equivalent of nearly 6% of Mexico’s GDP. This puts even the U.S. robber barons of the 19th century to shame: at the peak of his powers, John Rockefeller was worth just 2.5% of U.S. GDP.
It’s no coincidence that Mexico is the most unequal of the 34 nations that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). As a recent in-depth report by El Daily Post reveals, there are 2,540 Mexicans whose net individual assets reach $30 million dollars or more.
They would fit into two Metro trains, but control 43% of the total individual wealth in the nation. Meanwhile, 61 million Mexicans, the equivalent to Italy’s total population, cannot afford a decent standard of living.
Most worrisome of all, the gaping gulf between the nation’s super rich and the super poor continues to grow at breakneck pace. In the last 40 years, Mexicans’ purchasing power has not just stagnated, as has happened in many Western nations, but hasshrunk by two-thirds. In 1976, a family on minimum wage could buy four times as much as today.
In the last 18 years, the average fortune of Mexico’s select group of 16 billionaires grew from $1.7 billion to $8.9 billion. Meanwhile, the average Mexican in the lower 20% has a net worth of $80 dollars. There are few better examples of systemic failure.
For decades, Mexico has followed — and in many ways continues to follow — the rule book of modern economic governance. It is Latin America’s second most privatized nation. And it has signed more free trade agreements than just about any other nation under the sun. Yet the result is ever-increasing concentration of power and wealth, stagnating incomes, rising prices, and dwindling choices for consumers who have to deal with Slim’s empire whether they want to or not. So his $7.2 billion loss so far this year elicits scant sympathy in Slimlandia. By Don Quijones, Raging Bull-Shit.
Mexico is already working on a recipe for its next debt crisis. Read… Corporate Dollar Debt Explodes in Mexico as Peso Dives

Rotten Apple: Former Leader Breaking Down

Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,
This is just a quick-hitter post on another former leader that is breaking down. As we have mentioned several times – in particular on July 22 and August 5 – the ever-thinning stock market rally is starting to lose the relatively few leaders still keeping it afloat. That July post noted the relative weakness in the equal-weight Nasdaq 100, even as the cap-weighted index remained near its highs. One reason was the performance of Apple Inc. (AAPL), the largest stock in the index, and the entire U.S. market. When AAPL is moving higher, it can mask a lot of problems in the broader market. Unfortunately for bulls, AAPL is beginning to crack. It began on the day of the July post when it got crushed following its earnings release. It has since broken down more, recently dropping below its post-2009 UP trendline.


As the chart indicates, we are using a logarithmic scale. AAPL prices held the trendline in 2013 and 2014 but broke below just last week. Yesterday, the stock tried to retake the trendline – but it failed miserably, losing over 5% today.
For a market reasonably close to its 52-week high that has exhibited an almost unprecedented deterioration in breadth, it can ill-afford to lose the few leaders it has left – especially one rotten apple that just so happens to be the largest stock in the world.
*  *  *

Mannarino: “We Are In An Environment Of Peak Debt…and World Central Banks Are Going To Continue To Inflate It Despite That. There’s No Doubt About That. This Is The Situation We Are In.”

Gregory Mannarino TradersChoice, Released on 8/11/15
“We are in an environment of peak debt…and world central banks are going to continue to inflate it despite that. There’s no doubt about that. This is the situation we are in.”

 

What Recovery – Currency Wars – The Central Banks Will Continue To Game The System By Adding Money, Leveraging A Broad Tax On Everyone Who Holds Their Currency, By Using A Number Of Means To Devalue Their Currencies.

by Jesse’s Café Américain
image: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg46vxPsklptRe9KN4T03sxG2W18pieeqPu3Kw8zebB1OJpxDKqrbOzxYb4QcoURRds0V5Vbnzu30DZCEIldKyviPGDvxnDa8nkaqzDIgaDfaPWAWGLgXnjwF1OkQvJxp5n8sG66CoE5ixW/s400/fortunetellrtnorecovery.JPG
China shocked the world markets overnight by devaluing their currency by the most in two decades.
A devaluation of this sort is designed to improve the domestic economy by stimulating exports, lowering domestic costs of production relative to other sources, and to inhibit imports by raising their relative prices.
In other words, China clearly signaled that the US dollar, to which they were matching their own currency, is overvalued relative to the state of the global economy, and especially their own.
China is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ for the global economy, a major source of labor and supply. Their own economy is sick because demand from overseas is down.
And why is demand lower? Because multinational corporations and the banking system have been financializing nearly everything to increase corporate profits and the wealth of a very few, pretty much at the expense of everyone else.
So if the people do not have the money to buy, and cannot keep increasing their private debt to service consumption because of the predatory lending and fees in the system, guess what happens to aggregate demand? Duh.
This is not new. This is not unknown to economists. Thanks for Wall Street Parade for reminding us of Franklin Roosevelt’s campaign speech delivered at Oglethorpe University in 1932 during the depths of the Great Depression.

“Our basic trouble was not an insufficiency of capital. It was an insufficient distribution of buying power coupled with an over-sufficient speculation in production. While wages rose in many of our industries, they did not as a whole rise proportionately to the reward to capital, and at the same time the purchasing power of other great groups of our population was permitted to shrink.
We accumulated such a superabundance of capital that our great bankers were vying with each other, some of them employing questionable methods, in their efforts to lend this capital at home and abroad. I believe that we are at the threshold of a fundamental change in our popular economic thought, that in the future we are going to think less about the producer and more about the consumer.
Do what we may have to do to inject life into our ailing economic order, we cannot make it endure for long unless we can bring about a wiser, more equitable distribution of the national income.”

The bankers have everyone focused on their interest rate antics while they have inflated their balance sheets obscenely, primarily for the benefit of the denizens of the FIRE sector who are acquiring productive assets and establishing monopolies with that paper.  The Fed is a key regulator of the banking system.  And they are failing badly.
You may disagree with the methods that FDR used during his ‘New Deal’ but I think his analysis of the problem was correct.  Andrew Jackson made similar observations in a different time and used different methods to address the issue.  They are outlined in his famous Farewell Address.

“But with overwhelming numbers and wealth on their side they are in constant danger of losing their fair influence in the Government, and with difficulty maintain their just rights against the incessant efforts daily made to encroach upon them.
The mischief springs from the power which the moneyed interest derives from a paper currency which they are able to control, from the multitude of corporations with exclusive privileges which they have succeeded in obtaining in the different States, and which are employed altogether for their benefit; and unless you become more watchful in your States and check this spirit of monopoly and thirst for exclusive privileges you will in the end find that the most important powers of Government have been given or bartered away, and the control over your dearest interests has passed into the hands of these corporations.”

The problem was not paper money per se, but the concentration of power and wealth which the abusive use of the monetary power had granted to a few powerful individuals and institutions.  No system is foolproof when a foolish people will allow the unscrupulous few to operate it in secrecy and without transparency, accountability and the rule of law.  And if anything is clear, the crony regulation by the Fed and others of the Banking System, or lack thereof, is a failure and the source of much of our mischief.

image: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhROSDi2KjPril3fUSw2LHNcHmCL4bkiU4Ww36YwbKjNSmRuNbrtk00HrEysiOKVEv6nsy85fMJV7NATQFnGgUtc-tjxwt3td8av3jA4NoCyoy66-6hGtylo8blzC-xXxqDkfwjPPiWr2Ka/s400/MoveableFeast.png

And the primary reason we cannot acknowledge the facts of our own situation is that our political and financial class are caught in a credibility trap. They cannot speak the truth without compromising their own personal greed and will to power. And this is dangerous because FDR was a bit of an outlier, an odd combination of personal advantage and profound physical suffering, in a time that gave rise to terrible demagogues in the US and other countries.
The implications of this are an intensification of the currency war as the financial powers continue their stranglehold over the governments and the economic systems, inflating money but keeping the most of it for themselves, so that wages and income for the great mass of the public remains slack and a broad sustainable recovery is not thereby driven.  Say’s Law, which decrees that increased production creates its own demand through necessarily increased wages, is as great a canard as the efficient markets hypothesis.
So, the central banks will continue to game the system by adding money, leveraging a broad tax on everyone who holds their currency, by using a number of means to devalue their currencies.  And creating a few winners and many losers by running the confidence game, large and in charge, of being wise and perfectly objective administrators, and not cronies and viceroys for the moneyed interests. As James Montier pointed out in his essay here:

“Lest you think I am being unduly harsh on the world’s poor central bankers, let me turn to the wider idolatry of interest rates that seems to characterise the world in which we live. There seems to be a perception that central bankers are gods, or at the very least minor deities in some twisted economic pantheon. Coupled with this deification of central bankers is a faith that interest rates are a panacea.
Whatever the problem, interest rates can solve it. Inflation too high, simply raise interest rates. Economy too weak, then lower interest rates. A bubble bursts, then slash interest rates, etc., etc. John Kenneth Galbraith poetically described this belief as “…our most prestigious form of fraud, our most elegant escape from reality… The difficulty is that this highly plausible, wholly agreeable process exists only in well-established economic belief and not in real life.”

The US Dollar did not soar as measured by the DX index, but instead was flat as shown below.  As I noted, it is outdated and is now primarily the inverse of the Euro.  I would imagine the dollar and gold and other alternative safe havens got legs when priced in Chinese Yuan.
Stay tuned, because the action is just beginning.
Have a pleasant evening.

image: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcXcRjEcD8mNPNFt9Rx_pd3YzMTX7aDEl5fHFZJpYrWjXzH24d-F6_TcE29whWIKX-lGGJJGfSTWUkiNcCz07vfRTCu9cWp_Ax_pRaP2bX6A4qhxZA0nM3wdNKk5GHcEhmGa5yT7Gg_wYQ/s640/peakjunk.png

image: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGK4ScUDyJRZYShBe5k9iQsbIW81n12Rbn1UzvguZ1VbARwTgK314UE5w-M20l06D2r0R9vYHmNTt_n0egIIOfx7xAKqx7DRrGC4XFU7JM0LXa0dveIg6lXDTzZcVuyNfXtENhlbk00aXE/s640/emptopopratio.PNG

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image: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgWASsBxPOcLCMO_dM7XR-mZSsfPnr-9LP5UYL06N7AFPz7DceSOStWH6iUm82gy0r1b2XRlzygcXtVa3OZPAX8dUJFuQkGWTnUdUBSeCxG93GcbueVGBxGd61hIIhobNdtjr-tzf1oQeJO/s640/cmeinventory.PNG

image: https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi_YarHy51XbHAMyf6S6hV5F7BqOjxBkdNUzF1S06yFfh7OJwYNdFM8zRJVPG-5M-FtDwsCV4aHOkDpAMOIlJnfiDsQSghAh2wiONbBz_OlN8Bm_32iOJV0rib1BOScHMmi2LD0cwObhArk/s640/cmeinventory2.PNG

Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/what-recovery-currency-wars-the-central-banks-will-continue-to-game-the-system-by-adding-money-leveraging-a-broad-tax-on-everyone-who-holds-their-currency-by-using-a-number-of-means-to-devalue-t/#gUju88xVxkAW3GAe.99

Russia Deepens Its Recession, 10 European Countries In Recession, China & Canada Heading Into Recession. Another Global Recession Already Here!

Russia deepens it’s recession

Russia’s economy shrank the most since 2009 after a currency crisis jolted consumer demand, while a selloff in oil threatens to drag the country into a deeper recession.
Gross domestic product contracted 4.6 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after a 2.2 percent decline in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said on Monday, citing preliminary data. That was worse than the median forecast for a 4.5 percent slump in a Bloomberg survey of 18 analysts. The Economy Ministry had projected that output shrank 4.4 percent in the period, calling it “thelowest point” for Russia.

image: http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iNUBTfcqvMGQ/v1/488x-1.jpg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/russian-economy-shrinks-4-6-as-oil-slump-risks-deeper-recession

Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Italy, Portugal, Tawain, Slovenia, Ireland, and Netherlands…all in recession.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9160633/Countries-in-recession-in-pictures.html?frame=2174796
Greece is past recession and bankrupt…
China is heading toward recession

Russia’s economy shrank the most since 2009 after a currency crisis jolted consumer demand, while a selloff in oil threatens to drag the country into a deeper recession.
Gross domestic product contracted 4.6 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier after a 2.2 percent decline in the previous three months, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said on Monday, citing preliminary data. That was worse than the median forecast for a 4.5 percent slump in a Bloomberg survey of 18 analysts. The Economy Ministry had projected that output shrank 4.4 percent in the period, calling it “thelowest point” for Russia.

image: http://assets.bwbx.io/images/iNUBTfcqvMGQ/v1/488x-1.jpg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/russian-economy-shrinks-4-6-as-oil-slump-risks-deeper-recession

Ireland, Belgium, Czech Republic, Italy, Portugal, Tawain, Slovenia, Ireland, and Netherlands…all in recession.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9160633/Countries-in-recession-in-pictures.html?frame=2174796
Greece is past recession and bankrupt…
China is heading toward recession

 

Canada is on verge of recession
The latest economic data from Canada shows that it is inching toward recession, after its economy posted its fifth straight month of contraction.
Statistics Canada revealed on July 31 that the Canadian economy shrank by 0.2% on an annualized basis in May, perhaps pushing the country over the edge into recessionary territory for the first half of 2015.
“There is no sugar-coating this one,” Douglas Porter, BMO chief economist, wrote in a client note. “It’s a sour result.”
The poor showing surprised economists, who predicted GDP to remain flat, but it the result followed a contraction in the first quarter at an annual rate of 0.6%. Canada’s economy may or may not have technically dipped into recession this year — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth — but it is surely facing some serious headwinds.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/04/news/economy/canada-on-verge-of-recession-oil/
US crude oil dips below $43 for first time since March on concerns of weaker demand from China – @CNBCnow
http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/us-economic-indicators/
This is all in the MSM; but it’s hidden back in the business sections of the website…never front page news. And certainly not on prime time televised MSM.
Herein USA it is “hidden news”…they print it, but never on the front page of a website. And 95% of Americans don’t read the business pages and wouldn’t understand them if they did.
And the MSM here releases bad economy info little by little, with days in between. It seems as if all the major world players, aka illuminati or whatever — are in on it together. They are hoping to control the crash and usher in the NWO.

AC