Charts: Bloomberg
Tuesday, June 30, 2015
Greek 10Y Bonds Collapse - Yield Tops 15%
Greek stocks may be closed and the bond market super-illiquid but traders are willing to dump GGBs at almost any price for now. 10Y Greek government bonds are spiking over 400bps and have topped 15% for the first time since December 2012.

Charts: Bloomberg
Charts: Bloomberg
Greece May Not Even Have The Funds To Conduct A Referendum
With Europe making it very clear that unless Greece folds in the next
48 hours, there will be no deal on which the Greeks will be conducting
their "Greferendum" as Greece will be programless after June
30, there has been ample confusion about just what the wording of the
ballot will be to which the Greek population will say Nai or Oxi.
As the following latest snapshot confirms, even the Greek side is
rather confused and is now essentially telling people to vote on a deal
that was proposed once (on June 25) and may or may no longer be
relevant.

This takes place even as moments ago Germany's minister for economic affairs Sigmar Gabriel explained just what a No vote would entail:

... but at this point there is no alternative: since the bluffing game had to be taken beyond the point of no return and both Greece and the Troika have to last it out until the weekend.
However, the problem for Greece may not be one of wording or even maintaining the "game theory" bluff until the very end, but a far simpler one: not having the funds to actually conduct it!
According to Germany's FAZ, "the Greek Court also estimates that the referendum will cost around 110 million euros, according to a well-informed policy analyst. Money that in view of the strapped Greek Checkout simply will not be there, even if the country saves a EUR 1.6 billion full-scale default to the International Monetary Fund this Tuesday."
Furthermore, the Athens Chamber of Commerce added there is no paper to print some 20 million requred ballots!
So a question emerges: if indeed Greece is unable to fund a referendum will it be stuck with mailed-in responses? And how long would it take to tabulate those votes: 3 weeks, 3 months? Needless to say, the cash-based Greek economy, with its €60/day daily allowance of ATM will not survive nearly that long, something the government hopefully realizes as the next wave of anger will promptly turn away from the Troika once the natitonalistic passion has died down and refocuses on the local government itself...
This takes place even as moments ago Germany's minister for economic affairs Sigmar Gabriel explained just what a No vote would entail:
- GERMANY GABRIEL: GREEK NO VOTE A VOTE FOR EURO AREA EXIT
- MERKEL SAYS NONE OF US WANT TO TELL GREEK PEOPLE HOW TO VOTE
- JUNCKER: I WOULD LIKE TO ASK GREECE TO VOTE 'YES'
... but at this point there is no alternative: since the bluffing game had to be taken beyond the point of no return and both Greece and the Troika have to last it out until the weekend.
However, the problem for Greece may not be one of wording or even maintaining the "game theory" bluff until the very end, but a far simpler one: not having the funds to actually conduct it!
According to Germany's FAZ, "the Greek Court also estimates that the referendum will cost around 110 million euros, according to a well-informed policy analyst. Money that in view of the strapped Greek Checkout simply will not be there, even if the country saves a EUR 1.6 billion full-scale default to the International Monetary Fund this Tuesday."
Furthermore, the Athens Chamber of Commerce added there is no paper to print some 20 million requred ballots!
So a question emerges: if indeed Greece is unable to fund a referendum will it be stuck with mailed-in responses? And how long would it take to tabulate those votes: 3 weeks, 3 months? Needless to say, the cash-based Greek economy, with its €60/day daily allowance of ATM will not survive nearly that long, something the government hopefully realizes as the next wave of anger will promptly turn away from the Troika once the natitonalistic passion has died down and refocuses on the local government itself...
Central Bank of Central Banks Says “The World is Unable to Fight Next Global Crash”
That’s because the economy remains in the hands of the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The financial wizards in THIS VIDEO went so far to say that “we are all slaves to the central banks.” It wasn’t exactly hyperbole.
According to the BIS, central banks have already “used up their ammunition” by driving interests to below zero, freezing investment for the important stuff like production and infrastructure, and instead fueling huge bubbles for wonder kids on Wall Street to play in.
Now, everything is basically teetering on the edge until the music stops. According to the BIS, it will soon be time to pay the piper – as “persistent ultra-low rates” are poised to unleash destruction upon the economy like King Kong set loose on Manhattan:
The BIS report described the threat of a new bust in advanced economies as a “main risk”, with many reaching the top of the economic cycle.And worse, the advanced countries will be unable to fight back against the serious consequences, according to their 2015 annual report :
The economies worst hit by the last crisis are now suffering the costs of persistent ultra-low rates, the organisation said, which could “inflict serious damage on the financial system”, sapping banks and weakening their balance sheets and their ability to lend.
• The world will be unable to fight the next global financial crash as central banks have used up their ammunition trying to tackle the last crises.
In past years, the BIS has painted a clear picture of the bleak financial landscape brought on by central bank policy since the 2008 crisis.• Central banks have backed themselves into a corner after repeatedly cutting interest rates to shore up their economies.
• Central banks may have contributed [to the coming crisis] by fuelling costly financial booms and busts and delaying adjustment.”
. . . . . .
It warned in 2013 that:
Fresh action from central banks to kick-start growth may do more harm than good, by distorting financial markets and jeopardising stability.. . . . . .
“Unfortunately, central banks cannot do more without compounding the risks they have already created.” (source)
In 2014, it found that central banks have failed to achieve a recovery, and are incapable of doing so:
Robust, self-sustaining growth still eludes the global economy… Central banks cannot solve the structural problems that are preventing a return to strong and sustainable growth.Given the unique insider position of the Bank of International Settlements in the global financial power structure, these are foreboding words to be met with mature concern. This is a tacit admission that the powers that be know the next big crisis is around the corner, and they are ready to watch us drown in it – this time, without reaching down to offer us up.
“Most of all, central banks cannot enact the structural economic and financial reforms needed to return economies to the real growth paths authorities and their publics both want and expect.”
“What central bank accommodation has done during the recovery is to borrow time … But the time needs to be used wisely, as the balance between benefits and costs is deteriorating.” (source)
California Drought So Bad, Neighbors Stealing Water From Each Other
by Daniel Barker,
There is simply no commodity on the planet more precious than water. Without it, life as we know it cannot exist. The human body can go without water for only three days at the most before death occurs.side from the essential survival aspects, we also depend on water for many other things, such as bathing, watering our lawns and gardens, washing our clothes, and a number of other daily activities. Everyone knows this, but access to clean water is something most of us have taken for granted.owever, that is beginning to change, particularly in the Southwest region of the United States, where a drought period that has lasted for more than a decade has become a massive problem. In California, Nevada and Arizona in particular, millions of people are being affected. Experts say that the problem will only worsen over the coming years.cientists say that the current drought period is the worst the region has endured in more than 1,200 years. The 20th century was the wettest in more than 1,000 years, but now it’s a completely different story. While the sprawling metropolitan areas in the region such as Las Vegas, Phoenix and Los Angeles were expanding during the last century, no one foresaw the dangerous crisis these cities are now facing.ore than 40 million people in the Southwest, including those in southern California, depend on the water that flows into Nevada’s Lake Mead from the Colorado River. Lake Mead was formed when the Hoover Dam was built in the 1930s, and the lake’s water levels are now at their lowest since the dam was created.n California, mandatory water restrictions are already in effect, but these restrictions are far from being enough to fix the state’s water crisis. If the water levels in Lake Mead continue to drop — a very likely scenario — the water restrictions will be even more widespread, and it’s entirely possible that millions of people will eventually be forced to relocate.he problem is only going to get worsehe current drought period has been termed “the greatest water crisis in the history of the United States,” and we are now approaching “megadrought” status, according to scientists.n the hardest-hit areas of California, there have already been numerous reports of water theft. Some of these incidents have involved water theft on a large scale, such as in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, but there have also been many cases of neighbors stealing water from each other.
hese water theft incidents are likely to increase, and the
collective mood is likely to get even uglier in the very near future.
“Water wars” have begun to erupt between landowners and authorities,
farmers and other farmers, and even among ordinary citizens. It seems
there is already a black market for stolen water.
Monday Market Meltdown – Greece is so Bad we’re Ignoring China! I LOVE A GOOD DISTRACTION!
by Phil
I love a good distraction!
One of the great things about being good at forecasting the
Futures is that we were not only 100% prepared for Greece to melt down
(our Short-Term Portfolio was already up 152% as of Friday’s close) but
we’re already done talking about it and looking ahead to the much bigger
Financial crisis in CHINA!!!
If you are a typical short-term, short-sighted, impatient investor (they kind we make money off every day), now is a good time to click away and look for someone to explain to you what’s going on in Greece. I liked Felix Salmon’s “I Haven’t Been Paying Attention. What’s Going On In Greece?” enough to send it to the 1,000 people who asked me that this weekend. Greek markets are closed today (and will be all week along with the banks) but the Greek ETF (GREK) is trading and will open down 15-20% by my estimation.
image: http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&p=m5&s=m&rev=635711594173392158
As I said, I’m bored with Greece, we discussed it all weekend (and all year, and all month) in Member Chat, so you can catch up HERE, and we already played our strong bounce lines in the Futures and took our profits at:
I
was hoping that FXI would open higher this morning and we’d have a
chance to double down at a lower price after China announced over the
weekend after China cut both the lending rate by 0.25% AND lowered the
reserve requirements for banks by 0.25%, effectively doubling their
usual bi-weekly $85Bn cash injection in an attempt to stop the 20% slide
in their indexes. It worked – for about 30 minutes, as the Chinese
markets opened up 4% but, over the course of the session, they plunged
back to new lows, ending down about 3% for the day, 7% down from the
open in another disastrous session.
Hmm,
I wonder if we can think of any other countries where the Central Banks
have been eager to maintain a bull market by dumping FREE MONEY on the
investing class? I know I sound like a real party-pooper when I keep
hammering on those boring old Fundamentals but, in the end, we do have
to face reality. Printing money and handing it to Corporations and the
Top 1% who own them does NOTHING for the real economy.
image: http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIpS-trUcAAtt8Z.jpg
And don’t forget the margin debt (see my 6/15 note).
What idiots lent out that kind of money to people who were buying
Chinese stocks AFTER they already gained 100% in a year? I guess the
PEOPLE will have to suffer because the Banksters who collected huge fees
for financing this bubble will now need to be bailed out as it implodes
on them.
If you are a typical short-term, short-sighted, impatient investor (they kind we make money off every day), now is a good time to click away and look for someone to explain to you what’s going on in Greece. I liked Felix Salmon’s “I Haven’t Been Paying Attention. What’s Going On In Greece?” enough to send it to the 1,000 people who asked me that this weekend. Greek markets are closed today (and will be all week along with the banks) but the Greek ETF (GREK) is trading and will open down 15-20% by my estimation.
image: http://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=ES&p=m5&s=m&rev=635711594173392158
- Dow (/YM) 17,670
- S&P (/ES) 2,075
- Nasdaq (/NQ) 4,430
- Russell (/TF) 1,264.20
At $47.75, FXI should open lower this morning and we do expect China to step in with more stimulus but the Aug $45.50 puts at $1 are still a fun way to play if you don’t like complex spreads and, if China does stimulate and FXI pops higher, THEN we can adjust it and roll it to higher Sept puts because NOTHING they do can really stop this market from making a serious correction, at least to that $44 line ($1.50+ on the options, up 50%) and possibly the $40 line ($5.50, up 450%) – it’s just a matter of when (or should I say Wen?!? Get it, Wen.. that’s the Premier’s name – Wen! Ouch, tough room…).image: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/06-overflow/20150628_china2.jpg
“The government appears eager to maintain a bull market to expand the capital market and reduce reliance on bank lending,” wrote Standard Chartered economists in reaction to the cuts. “Although the use of monetary policy for that purpose is questionable.”image: http://i1239.photobucket.com/albums/ff507/montys55/reaganomics-republicans-trikle-down-economics-political-poster-1294154060.jpg
The Chinese rally has had no such effect. Even as stock markets saw their net capitalisation increase by $7.6Tn in 12 months, from $3.9Tn to $11.5 trillion – larger that the country’s ENTIRE Gross Domestic Product in 2014 – retail sales figures have declined steadily, and business investment has stayed weak. I’m sorry for all the people I got into arguements with when I said that the market rally simply wasn’t sustainable but – you are all idiots and I had to straighten you out. 8)So much of China’s current GDP growth is wrapped up in false increases in market wealth (it’s only paper gains and, when you try to cash it in, the market collapses because that much money simply does not exist to cover the fake market gains) that the (so far) 20% correction in the Chinese markets is $2.5Tn and that is going knock at least a percentage off their GDP, which will then panic investors further, etc, etc.
image: http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CIpS-trUcAAtt8Z.jpg
EU chief feels 'betrayed' over Greek debt talks
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said he feels betrayed by Alexis Tsipras', the Greek prime minister, suprise call for a referendum last weekend and said that "playing one democracy against 18 others is not an attitude worthy of the great Greek nation".
After months of good relations with Tsipras as the bailout negotiations dragged on, Juncker turned against the Greek leader on Monday, complaining that "egotism, tactical games, populist games" took over from cool-headed economic analysis.
The Greeks will vote on reforms that the country's creditors had proposed in exchange for loans. However, the deal is, in reality, is no longer on the table, adding to the confusion around the referendum.
Juncker said that ahead of the vote "it would be advisable to the Greek government to tell the truth to the Greek people instead of simplifying its own message to a 'no-message," the AP news agency reported.
Also speaking on Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that if Greece wants to resume talks after its referendum, "we will of course not refuse such negotiations."
Merkel said that Europe can only function if it is ready to compromise and "no one can get 100 percent."
She said that the "generous offer" made by creditors "was our contribution to a compromise" and the will to reach one was not there on the Greek side.
The chancellor said there will be a debate on Greece in the German parliament on Wednesday.
Stock markets hit
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Analysis: Who is to blame for Greece's debt crisis?
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Tsipras said that the government would also start imposing capital controls ahead of a looming deadline on Tuesday.
In addition, Greece announced on Monday that the country's stock market will remain closed until July 7.
The country needs to make a $1.8bn payment to the International Monetary Fund by Tuesday or risk defaulting on its obligations.
The emergency measures were agreed at a cabinet meeting after a gathering of Greece's systemic stability council, called after eurozone finance ministers refused to extend its bailout beyond Tuesday.
We Are All Greeks!
Europe Only Has a Future With the New Silk Roady
Helga Zepp-LaRouche, LaRouche PAC:
Dear Citizens!t’s not Greece which has failed, but rather Chancellor Merkel, Finance Minister Schäuble, the EU Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. Why should the Greek government stick with the austerity measures demanded by the EU, which have already reduced the Greek economy by a third, lowered the birth rate, raised the death rate, and increased youth unemployment to 65%? A policy that even the IMF had to admit was completely incompetent, and that the UN expert on debt and human rights condemned as a clear violation of human rights? Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s decision not to capitulate to the “shock and awe” method of the Eurogroup’s Shylocks is not only correct, but offers the chance for all of Europe to break with the insanity of the casino economy, which only serves the interests of the banks and speculators—provided however, that Germany and other countries find the courage to mobilize Europe’s moral and intellectual strengths.f panic now breaks out on the financial markets and the European economy collapses, Greece will not be to blame, but rather the fact that the entire trans-Atlantic system is hopelessly bankrupt. Instead of using the threatened meltdown around the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and AIG in September 2008 to regulate the banking system and to ban speculative excesses, a gigantic redistribution took place, transforming private gambling debts into public debts, and the taxpayers had to pay for the bailouts. In the case of Greece, only 3% of the bailout funds stayed in the country, while the rest flowed back into the European banks, allowing the speculators to dance even more wildly around the Golden Calf. The reality is that the trans-Atlantic banks, which are supposedly “too big to fail,” are 40% larger today than they were in 2008, and the total of derivatives amounts to something approaching $2 quadrillion. And that is exactly what could disappear into thin air in an uncontrollable crash, in a “Grexit” [exit of Greece from the Eurozone—ed.].ust in time for the explosion of the crisis, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) announced in its annual report that the world has no defense for the next financial crisis, since the central banks have already fired off all their ammunition. They even outmaneuvered themselves, since with their repeated interest rate cuts, they created all the preconditions for the next crash. In fact: “The game isch over, Mr Schäuble—but not for Greece, but for their own failed policies!”hat is precisely why the Greek government’s proposal for a debt conference—not only for Greece, but for all of Europe—is absolutely on the mark. A drastic debt “haircut,” in tandem with the introduction of a Glass-Steagall two-tier banking system on both sides of the Atlantic, must put an end to the casino economy. In its place, we need to establish a credit system, similar, for example, to the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau [Reconstruction Finance Agency], which was created after World War II to finance the real economy, generating the German “economic miracle.” Without such a fundamental reorganization of the financial system—i.e., continuing with “bailouts” or “bail-ins” ad nauseum (the Cyprus blueprint of Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem)—the impact on the savings of every citizen in Europe and the United States will be very much worse than what the Greek population is enduring today. Solidarity with Greece is the best thing you can do for yourself and for your own future!here is a very real and immediate way out of this crisis: The “win-win” strategy offered by China, i.e., cooperation to build the New Silk Road, the so-called “One Road, One Belt” policy, which President Xi Jinping proposed at the APEC summit in Beijing last October to President Obama and the heads of other major countries, provides a real prospect for overcoming the evil of geopolitics. In the West, China’s New Silk Road policy was virtually ignored for nearly two years; now the realization is belatedly dawning, that this revival of the ancient Silk Road has picked up incredibly impressive momentum. It represents a dynamic that one could only describe as “A Grand Design in Action.” Along with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the new financial institutions of the BRICS countries [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa], a parallel economic and financial system has evolved in the last two years, based on exactly the same economic principles as the American System of Alexander Hamilton, Friedrich List, Otto von Bismarck, and the German economic miracle in the post-war period.he EU-China Summit on June 29 could be the beginning of such cooperation. China has already expressed its interest in generous investments in European infrastructure projects, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the EUR 315 billion investment plan of the European Fund forStrategic Investments (EFSI) so far has no investors to provide a real capital line for it. In its preparations for the summit, China expressed great interest in cooperating with this Fund for the implementation of the New Silk Road. Thus, the 2012 program of the BüSo [Civil Rights Solidarity Movement, headed by Zepp-LaRouche—ed.] for extending the New Silk Road to Southern Europe and the Mediterranean is coming immediately within reach. Greece can—along with the Balkans, Italy, Spain, and Portugal—very soon experience the same economic development that China’s economic miracle has demonstrated over the last 30 years.Prime Minister Tsipras has, with his recent trips to Russia and China, already had extensive conversations about how Greece, which has had long historical and deep cultural ties with both nations, can cooperate with the New Silk Road and the BRICS countries and become part of the new dynamic. Europe should take up Greece’s offer to be a bridge between Europe and the BRICS. However, if the EU responds to the generous Chinese offer by trying to subvert the new Chinese institutions with the old neo-liberal monetarist and failed concepts or with the satanic climate swindle of Commander of the British Empire Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, as it just appeared in the new Encyclical of Pope Francis, then this will mean missing in all likelihood the last chance to save the world before the crash.
Helga Zepp-LaRouche, LaRouche PAC:
Dear Citizens!t’s not Greece which has failed, but rather Chancellor Merkel, Finance Minister Schäuble, the EU Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. Why should the Greek government stick with the austerity measures demanded by the EU, which have already reduced the Greek economy by a third, lowered the birth rate, raised the death rate, and increased youth unemployment to 65%? A policy that even the IMF had to admit was completely incompetent, and that the UN expert on debt and human rights condemned as a clear violation of human rights? Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s decision not to capitulate to the “shock and awe” method of the Eurogroup’s Shylocks is not only correct, but offers the chance for all of Europe to break with the insanity of the casino economy, which only serves the interests of the banks and speculators—provided however, that Germany and other countries find the courage to mobilize Europe’s moral and intellectual strengths.f panic now breaks out on the financial markets and the European economy collapses, Greece will not be to blame, but rather the fact that the entire trans-Atlantic system is hopelessly bankrupt. Instead of using the threatened meltdown around the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and AIG in September 2008 to regulate the banking system and to ban speculative excesses, a gigantic redistribution took place, transforming private gambling debts into public debts, and the taxpayers had to pay for the bailouts. In the case of Greece, only 3% of the bailout funds stayed in the country, while the rest flowed back into the European banks, allowing the speculators to dance even more wildly around the Golden Calf. The reality is that the trans-Atlantic banks, which are supposedly “too big to fail,” are 40% larger today than they were in 2008, and the total of derivatives amounts to something approaching $2 quadrillion. And that is exactly what could disappear into thin air in an uncontrollable crash, in a “Grexit” [exit of Greece from the Eurozone—ed.].ust in time for the explosion of the crisis, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) announced in its annual report that the world has no defense for the next financial crisis, since the central banks have already fired off all their ammunition. They even outmaneuvered themselves, since with their repeated interest rate cuts, they created all the preconditions for the next crash. In fact: “The game isch over, Mr Schäuble—but not for Greece, but for their own failed policies!”hat is precisely why the Greek government’s proposal for a debt conference—not only for Greece, but for all of Europe—is absolutely on the mark. A drastic debt “haircut,” in tandem with the introduction of a Glass-Steagall two-tier banking system on both sides of the Atlantic, must put an end to the casino economy. In its place, we need to establish a credit system, similar, for example, to the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau [Reconstruction Finance Agency], which was created after World War II to finance the real economy, generating the German “economic miracle.” Without such a fundamental reorganization of the financial system—i.e., continuing with “bailouts” or “bail-ins” ad nauseum (the Cyprus blueprint of Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem)—the impact on the savings of every citizen in Europe and the United States will be very much worse than what the Greek population is enduring today. Solidarity with Greece is the best thing you can do for yourself and for your own future!here is a very real and immediate way out of this crisis: The “win-win” strategy offered by China, i.e., cooperation to build the New Silk Road, the so-called “One Road, One Belt” policy, which President Xi Jinping proposed at the APEC summit in Beijing last October to President Obama and the heads of other major countries, provides a real prospect for overcoming the evil of geopolitics. In the West, China’s New Silk Road policy was virtually ignored for nearly two years; now the realization is belatedly dawning, that this revival of the ancient Silk Road has picked up incredibly impressive momentum. It represents a dynamic that one could only describe as “A Grand Design in Action.” Along with the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the new financial institutions of the BRICS countries [Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa], a parallel economic and financial system has evolved in the last two years, based on exactly the same economic principles as the American System of Alexander Hamilton, Friedrich List, Otto von Bismarck, and the German economic miracle in the post-war period.he EU-China Summit on June 29 could be the beginning of such cooperation. China has already expressed its interest in generous investments in European infrastructure projects, and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the EUR 315 billion investment plan of the European Fund forStrategic Investments (EFSI) so far has no investors to provide a real capital line for it. In its preparations for the summit, China expressed great interest in cooperating with this Fund for the implementation of the New Silk Road. Thus, the 2012 program of the BüSo [Civil Rights Solidarity Movement, headed by Zepp-LaRouche—ed.] for extending the New Silk Road to Southern Europe and the Mediterranean is coming immediately within reach. Greece can—along with the Balkans, Italy, Spain, and Portugal—very soon experience the same economic development that China’s economic miracle has demonstrated over the last 30 years.Prime Minister Tsipras has, with his recent trips to Russia and China, already had extensive conversations about how Greece, which has had long historical and deep cultural ties with both nations, can cooperate with the New Silk Road and the BRICS countries and become part of the new dynamic. Europe should take up Greece’s offer to be a bridge between Europe and the BRICS. However, if the EU responds to the generous Chinese offer by trying to subvert the new Chinese institutions with the old neo-liberal monetarist and failed concepts or with the satanic climate swindle of Commander of the British Empire Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, as it just appeared in the new Encyclical of Pope Francis, then this will mean missing in all likelihood the last chance to save the world before the crash.
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