Thursday, February 5, 2015
Fed TRAPPED as QE Fails! Congress Discuss NOT Bailing Out Pension Funds!
Sources:
“Economy grew 2.6% in the fourth quarter”
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/b…
“Q. and A. With Charles Plosser of the Fed: Raise Rates Sooner Rather Than Later – NYTimes.com”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/ups…
“You need to make $108,092 a year to live comfortably in D.C., report says – The Washington Post”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/lo…
“Salary it takes to live comfortable in these expensive cities”
http://data-wrapper.s3.amazonaws.com/…
H Res 41 pension fund
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-11…
“Eurozone alarm grows over Greek bailout brinkmanship”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102387514#.
shanghai composite index stock market crash collapse
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defaul…
brazil economy growth deflation inflation http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defaul…
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defaul…
Sunday, February 1, 2015
Think Greece is in a mess? Wait till the UK's debt mountain explodes in our face
Would we
cope with misery as well as the Greeks? If our great fat cushion of
state-backed jobs, welfare payments, tax credits and easy loans were
whipped away one morning, how would we get on?
I think we would do very badly. In Greece, the suddenly poor and destitute turned to their strong extended families.
And if those families had not taken them in and supported them, there would have been nothing else. Fortunately, they did.
Scroll down for video
A woman celebrates the election of the
Syriza party in Greece this week which has vowed to put an end to the
austerity measures which have punished the Greek people
This country doesn’t have strong extended families any more. In many cases, it doesn’t really have families at all.
In
too many places, it has gangs instead. And those that survive are
weakest just where they would be needed most in a crisis – among the
poor.
This country lives on the edge of serious disorder. The misnamed ‘riots’ of August 2011 were nothing of the kind.
They had no political pretext, no wider aim. I suspect many thought of joining in, but didn’t quite.
They
followed the realisation by a large number of people, in a period of
good weather, that the forces of order were weak, absent and afraid.
Many of them were laughing as they stole, wrecked and burned.
Mostly, they turned on shops rather than private homes or individuals. But this seems to have been a matter of chance.
There
were one or two especially frightening moments when the lawless mob
came into direct contact with the cosseted middle class, who hid from
their hooded attackers under restaurant tables while the kitchen staff,
ready to defend their livelihoods with force, beat off the assault with
rolling pins.
And
almost all of the looters got away with it. It was only the dim
stragglers who were caught and whom I watched shuffling through the
courts in the weeks afterwards, most of them with criminal records
nearly as long as a Hilary Mantel historical novel.
Alexis Tsipras, the new Greek Prime
Minister, has vowed to put an end to savage state cuts by renegotiating
debt repayments with the EU
They
were baffled to find that, after years of cautions, unpaid fines,
suspended sentences, community service and limp rebukes, something might
actually now happen to them.
Actually, not much did in the end.
That’s
bad enough. But what about the rest of us? Generations of all classes
have been taught to expect a comfortable, well-fed existence, a reliable
safety net.
How
much privation would it take to turn us into beggars, then looters and
food rioters? I ask this because we are much closer to a Greek-style
crisis than we think.
Our
debts, national and personal, are huge. We can never pay them off. Our
trade imbalance is just as bad. Our recovery is based entirely on a
house-price balloon that could burst in a moment.
The main effort of the Government is to avoid any shocks until the Election is over – but what then?
I
feel for the Greeks. I don’t blame them for refusing to endure more
collective punishment, though they were foolish – as we are now – to let
politicians lead them into a swamp of debt.
But I wonder whether, not far hence, it will be the Greeks who are sympathising with us.
The riddle behind our Gaddafi disaster
Gaddafi was overthrown because Cameron
lent the RAF to little-known ihadi groups, and they have now turned the
country into a war zone
Last
week, the BBC rightly but cruelly replayed David Cameron’s ludicrous
words from September 2011, when he went to Tripoli to say: ‘Your city
was an inspiration to the world as you overthrew a dictator and chose
freedom.’
Now
it’s an inspiration to nobody. He can’t go there to say so, because
it’s too dangerous. Why isn’t he in more trouble over his active
destruction of an entire country? It’s all very strange.
The Gaddafi regime fell because Mr Cameron lent the RAF to various gangs of Libyan jihadis (about whom we knew nothing).
But
less than a year before, in October 2010, Henry Bellingham, a Tory
Minister, was referring to Gaddafi as ‘Brother Leader’ at a summit in
Tripoli.
About
the same time, another Minister, Alistair Burt, told the Libyan-British
Business Council that Libya had ‘turned a corner’ which ‘has paved the
way for us to begin working together again’.
What
changed? Could it be the same forces which decreed that flags in
Britain should fly at half-mast to mark the death of King Abdullah of
Saudi Arabia?
The Saudis always hated Libya’s dictator because he had overthrown a dynasty very like their own.
Do we still have an independent foreign policy, or is it governed by another, richer country?
Robots are no match for the most beautiful machines of all...
Some of the best films of modern times feature lifelike robots.
The
latest, Ex Machina, starring Alicia Vikander, right, is a clever and
cunning mystery story which I’ll say as little about as possible in case
it spoils the ending.
But,
as I discovered on a recent visit to a Tokyo robotics expert, we are
far, far away from developing anything remotely like a human
consciousness, let alone a human ability to move limbs and experience
pain, pleasure or grief.
The
real wonder in our midst is the astonishing complexity, beauty and
mystery of the human body, and the insoluble puzzle of where and what
consciousness is.
We
fantasise about creating human-like robots because it helps us close
our minds to some of the strongest evidence for the existence of God –
an idea we dislike.
My
local police force, Thames Valley, has recently admitted (thanks to a
Freedom of Information request) that 54 of its officers, some of them
specials, have criminal convictions, including for burglary, arson, drug
possession, actual bodily harm, criminal damage and computer misuse.
I
expect other forces have similar numbers. Are the police really so
short of recruits that they cannot find people without such pasts?
Forgiving
and forgetting is all very well, but these are the people who come into
the homes of burglary victims, and whom we trust absolutely with highly
personal details.
Those
who rely on the medical profession’s wisdom should note that the
National Institute for Health and Care Excellence now says 1.2 million
people may have been misdiagnosed with asthma.
I’m glad someone has noticed the absurd keenness of doctors to classify healthy children as asthmatics.
How
long before they notice that something similar may be happening with
some other fashionable ailments, such as the non-existent complaint
‘ADHD’?
Or will the fact that huge drug contracts rely on these subjective diagnoses protect them from watchdogs?
Have
you noticed that the people most excited about women bishops in the
Church of England are those who don’t believe in God and never go near a
church?
Personally,
I couldn’t care less what sex a bishop is. I’d like it if they believed
in God, preferred poetry and beauty to banality, and didn’t mix up
Christianity with socialism.
Perhaps I should start a campaign.
Croatia just canceled the debts of its poorest citizens
“We assess that this measure will be applicable to some 60,000 citizens,” Deputy Prime Minister Milanka Opacic was quoted as saying by Reuters. “Thus they will be given a chance for a new start without a burden of debt,” Opacic said earlier this month.
To be eligible, Croats need to fulfill certain criteria: Their debt must be lower than 35,000 kuna ($5,100), and their monthly income should not be higher than 1,250 kuna ($138). Those applying for the scheme are not allowed to own any property or have any savings.
Among economists, the scheme is regarded as unprecedented and exceptional. “I can’t think of anything comparable,” Dean Baker, co-director of the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research, told The Washington Post.
Although the program is expected to cost up to 210 million Croatian kuna ($31 million), according to Austrian press agency APA, the Croatian government expects economic long-term benefits that will outweigh the short-term investment. Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic has convinced multiple cities, public and private companies, the country’s major telecommunications providers, as well as nine banks to clear some of their citizens of their debt. The government will not refund the companies for their losses.
Overall, the debt of all Croats amounts to $4.11 billion — and the debt that is about to be wiped out accounts for less than 1 percent of that. However, for those who are eligible the agreement will make a significant difference by enabling them to gain access to their bank accounts. By reducing debt by less than 1 percent, Croatia frees nearly 20 percent of the country’s debtors from their obligations.
Some economists, among them Baker, are skeptical whether the scheme will succeed: “I am not sure that this is the best way to help low-income people. If lenders think this can happen again they will charge very high interest rates to low-income borrowers,” Baker said.
Did The Federal Reserve Make A Major Math Error When Reporting Its December Gold Withdrawals?
A month ago, when we first observed the biggest monthly gold
repatriation from the NY Fed since 2001, when 47 tons of foreign-owned
gold were withdrawn from the vault below 33 Liberty street which lowered
the gold inside to just 6,029 tons, and which brought the 2014 YTD
total withdrawal to 166.5 tons, we noted a math anomaly when accounting for the previously reported 122 tons of gold withdrawn by the Netherlands:
This is what Buba said:
Judging by the latest disclosure by the NY Fed, Buba may have had good reason to be "concerned" about its gold at the Fed, because according to the Fed's latest update of "earmarked gold" for December there was yet another math anomaly.
Whereas in November, the cumulative total correctly hinted that there was more withdrawals than had been disclosed, the December 2014 total suggests that either the Fed just made an egregious math error, one costing literally about $1.1 billion, when keeping track of its entrusted physical gold, or someone is lying.
As a reminder, based on purely public information, between just the Netherlands' 122 tons of repatriated gold and the Bundesbank's 85 tons, at least 207 tons of gold were quietly withdrawn from the NY Fed in all of 2014. This is what the NY Fed should have reported in its December earmarked gold update delivered yesterday. It also means that the NY Fed should have reported some 40.5 tons of gold withdrawn in December, after reporting 166.5 tons of withdrawals for 2014 through November, for the math to make sense. Instead, according to Federal Reserve data, only $14 billion in earmarked gold was withdrawn in December, bringing the total down to $8,170 billion, or 6,019 tons.
Translated into actual metal, this means that the Fed reported only 10.3 tons of gold withdrawals in the last month of the year, suggesting that there is a quite substantial hole of 30 tons in publicly withdrawn gold that, at least for the time being, is unaccounted for by the Fed.
So what happened: did an intern input the Fed's gold redemptions figures for December, supposedly a different intern than the one who works at the IMF and who caused a stir earlier this week when the IMF, allegedly erroneously, reported that the Dutch - after secretly repatriating 122 tons of gold - had also bought 10 tons of gold in the open market for the first time in nearly a decade.
Or perhaps some "other" bank, central or commercial, decided to offset the redemptions by the Netherlands and Germany, and inexplicably added 30 tons of gold in December? The question then becomes: "who" deposited said gold, especially when one considers that even the adjoining JPM vault which is allegedly connected to the NY Fed by a tunnel, only contains some 740K ounces of gold, or about 23 tonnes.
Or is it simply that when it comes to accurately reporting the flows of physical gold, classical math is incapable of keeping track of the New Normal gold moves, and the Fed has decided that even when dealing with physical gold there is a "settlement" period?
We will find out the answer for sure next month, when unless the Fed revises its 2014 numbers, or plugs the outstanding repatriation "hole" with a late January withdrawal, then a key question will emerge, namely: how can central banks report 2014 inflows of 207 tons from the NY Fed, while said NY Fed only reports 177 tons of outflows.
And no, the GAAP vs non-GAAP excuse won't work this time.
Source: Selected Foreign Official Assets Held at Federal Reserve Banks
Ironically, less than three weeks later, our bolded speculation above was proven to be absolutely correct when Germany confirmed that not only had it resumed repatriating its gold from the NY Fed as originally announced two years ago, after the mere 5 tons of gold transported to Frankfurt in all of 2013, but had substantially picked up the pace, when on January 19 the Bundesbank reported that it had indeed "grown a pair" and repatriated 35 tonnes of gold from Paris and, more importantly, 85 tonnes of gold from the NY Fed in all of 2014.net of the Netherlands withdrawals, there is some 44 tons of extra gold that has been also quietly redeemed (by another entity). The question is who: is it now the turn of Austria to reveal in a few weeks that it too, secretly, withdrew some 40+ tons of gold from "safe keeping" in the US? Or was it Belgium? Or did the Dutch simply decide to haul back some more. Or did Germany finally get over its "logistical complications" which prevented it from transporting more than just a laughable 5 tons in 2013? And most importantly, did Germany finally grow a pair and decide not to let "diplomatic difficulties" stand between it and its gold?
This is what Buba said:
The Bundesbank successfully continued and further stepped up its transfers of gold last year. In 2014, 120 tonnes of gold were transferred to Frankfurt am Main from storage locations abroad: 35 tonnes from Paris and 85 tonnes from New York. "Implementation of our new gold storage plan is proceeding smoothly. Operations are running very much according to schedule," said Carl-Ludwig Thiele, Member of the Executive Board of the Deutsche Bundesbank.
The Bundesbank took advantage of the transfer from New York to have roughly 50 tonnes of gold melted down and recast according to the London Good Delivery standard, today's internationally recognised standard. "We also called on the expertise of the Bank for International Settlements for the spot checks that had to be carried out. As expected, there were no irregularities," said Mr Thiele.
According to its new gold storage plan, unveiled in January 2013, the Bundesbank will be storing half of Germany’s gold reserves in its own vaults from 2020 onwards. This necessitates a phased transfer to Frankfurt am Main of 300 tonnes of gold from New York and all 374 tonnes of gold from Paris.
Since the transfers began in 2013, the Bank has relocated a total of 157 tonnes of gold to Frankfurt am Main - 67 tonnes from Paris and 90 tonnes from New York. This is equivalent to roughly 23% of the total quantity to be transferred. The following table gives an overview of the gold that has been transferred to date.
As at 31 December 2014, the Bundesbank's gold reserves were stored at the following locations.
At the time we commented that there was "a curious amount of precautions and safeguards when transporting the "safe" and "untainted" gold held at the NY Fed to Frankfurt. Almost as if the Bundesbank, gasp, did not trust the quality and content of the NY Fed-held gold, nor its well-meaning intentions."The Bundesbank assures the identity and authenticity of German gold reserves throughout the transfer process - from when they are removed from warehouses abroad until they are stored in Frankfurt am Main. As soon as the gold was removed from the warehouse locations abroad, Bundesbank employees cross-checked the lists of bars belonging to the Bundesbank against the information on the bars removed. Finally, once they arrived in Frankfurt am Main, all the transferred gold bars were thoroughly and exhaustively inspected and verified by the Bundesbank. When all the inspections had been concluded, no irregularities came to light with regard to the authenticity, fineness and weight of the bars.
Judging by the latest disclosure by the NY Fed, Buba may have had good reason to be "concerned" about its gold at the Fed, because according to the Fed's latest update of "earmarked gold" for December there was yet another math anomaly.
Whereas in November, the cumulative total correctly hinted that there was more withdrawals than had been disclosed, the December 2014 total suggests that either the Fed just made an egregious math error, one costing literally about $1.1 billion, when keeping track of its entrusted physical gold, or someone is lying.
As a reminder, based on purely public information, between just the Netherlands' 122 tons of repatriated gold and the Bundesbank's 85 tons, at least 207 tons of gold were quietly withdrawn from the NY Fed in all of 2014. This is what the NY Fed should have reported in its December earmarked gold update delivered yesterday. It also means that the NY Fed should have reported some 40.5 tons of gold withdrawn in December, after reporting 166.5 tons of withdrawals for 2014 through November, for the math to make sense. Instead, according to Federal Reserve data, only $14 billion in earmarked gold was withdrawn in December, bringing the total down to $8,170 billion, or 6,019 tons.
Translated into actual metal, this means that the Fed reported only 10.3 tons of gold withdrawals in the last month of the year, suggesting that there is a quite substantial hole of 30 tons in publicly withdrawn gold that, at least for the time being, is unaccounted for by the Fed.
So what happened: did an intern input the Fed's gold redemptions figures for December, supposedly a different intern than the one who works at the IMF and who caused a stir earlier this week when the IMF, allegedly erroneously, reported that the Dutch - after secretly repatriating 122 tons of gold - had also bought 10 tons of gold in the open market for the first time in nearly a decade.
Or perhaps some "other" bank, central or commercial, decided to offset the redemptions by the Netherlands and Germany, and inexplicably added 30 tons of gold in December? The question then becomes: "who" deposited said gold, especially when one considers that even the adjoining JPM vault which is allegedly connected to the NY Fed by a tunnel, only contains some 740K ounces of gold, or about 23 tonnes.
Or is it simply that when it comes to accurately reporting the flows of physical gold, classical math is incapable of keeping track of the New Normal gold moves, and the Fed has decided that even when dealing with physical gold there is a "settlement" period?
We will find out the answer for sure next month, when unless the Fed revises its 2014 numbers, or plugs the outstanding repatriation "hole" with a late January withdrawal, then a key question will emerge, namely: how can central banks report 2014 inflows of 207 tons from the NY Fed, while said NY Fed only reports 177 tons of outflows.
And no, the GAAP vs non-GAAP excuse won't work this time.
Source: Selected Foreign Official Assets Held at Federal Reserve Banks
Fund Manager: PMs Raided to Prevent Feb Delivery Run on COMEX Gold!
http://www.SilverDoctors.com
http://www.SDBullion.com
With Silver enduring the largest 1-day smash in 18 months Thursday, PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler joined the show this week discussing:
1. Gold & silver take-down on options expiration/ First Notice Day- Cartel had to force selling of 3 million oz of Feb gold contracts to prevent a potential run on delivery in Feb gold!
2. With the cartel desperate to prevent a delivery run on Feb gold, are fireworks looming for April delivery?
3. Kranzler explains why One of these months a high percentage of longs will finally stand for delivery, & its LIGHTS OUT for the COMEX!
4. Is the End Game in progress- Could the long awaited Economic Armageddon finally arrive in 2015?
5. The Indian Physical Giant is stirring- Kranzler explains why data out of India indicate a BIG move is imminent
6. Gold & the Dollar rising in tandem- why this might foretell one of the largest bull moves of the secular bull run!
http://www.SDBullion.com
With Silver enduring the largest 1-day smash in 18 months Thursday, PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler joined the show this week discussing:
1. Gold & silver take-down on options expiration/ First Notice Day- Cartel had to force selling of 3 million oz of Feb gold contracts to prevent a potential run on delivery in Feb gold!
2. With the cartel desperate to prevent a delivery run on Feb gold, are fireworks looming for April delivery?
3. Kranzler explains why One of these months a high percentage of longs will finally stand for delivery, & its LIGHTS OUT for the COMEX!
4. Is the End Game in progress- Could the long awaited Economic Armageddon finally arrive in 2015?
5. The Indian Physical Giant is stirring- Kranzler explains why data out of India indicate a BIG move is imminent
6. Gold & the Dollar rising in tandem- why this might foretell one of the largest bull moves of the secular bull run!
The Brutal Economics of Blogging
by Charles Hugh-Smith
I’ve found that much of the advice about how to make money blogging suffers from survivorship bias.
I was surprised to read that Andrew Sullivan was closing down his blog and subscription service, as his site was apparently making a lot of money. By a lot I mean enough to have three employees, i.e. a lot in sole proprietor terms, but not in tech start-up terms, where young guys sell their ventures for $26 million and then go back to college because they want to play soccer on a college squad.
This was one story I overheard while waiting for a BART train the
other evening; the fellow was relating his excitement at meeting this
young tech guru who’d just sold his start-up for $26 million. The BART
commuter was confident this young guru would be able to help him launch
his own start-up.
A bicyclist who boarded our car at the next stop was carrying a copy of The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses which is something of a bible for youthful entrepreneurs seeking to cash in on the tech gold rush.
The tech gold rush offers about the same odds as the Yukon and California gold rushes in the 19th century. 100,000 strivers with little knowledge of what they were getting into headed out to grab some of that gold, and a mere handful found enough gold and kept enough of it to live large in San Francisco or back east.
The advantage of the tech gold rush is it’s a lot easier, cleaner and safer to sleep on a sofa in San Francisco and code your dreams on a laptop than it was to clamber up mountains, dig the ore out of hard rock with a pick and avoid getting shot in the back if you did strike a vein of gold.
The problem with finding gold is that much of the process boils down to luck and being first. Those who stumbled on the easy wealth could write an account of how they located the gold, but the account would not be as useful to those coming after as we might imagine, due to survivorship bias, a topic I’ve covered several times: The Unknown Unknowns and Survivor Bias (June 15, 2013)
Why Advice From Highly Successful People Is Misleading (and thus potentially harmful)(December 23, 2013)
Blogging, on the other hand, holds little prospect for wealth on the scale of $26 million. In fact, some bloggers can’t even afford an office or a cubicle–they have to work outdoors. Some of these poor devils can’t even afford a shirt on their back. Yes, blogging is a brutal business; look at this wretch, stripped to the waist and tapping out some foolishness:
image: http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2015/blogger-CHSa.jpg
OK, so your heart isn’t bleeding for this shirtless fool (actually, me).
Tongue-in-cheek aside, blogging is not on anyone’s list of get-rich-quick schemes. The primary revenue streams are adverts, affiliate sales, direct sales and subscriptions. Even sites with audiences in the millions that are going full bore on all these fronts might generate $50,000 a month or more–very substantial over time but not $26 million.
The average income-producing blog generates a few hundred or perhaps a few thousand dollars a month for the writer/owner, roughly (so I’ve read) 1% of the site’s page views: by this rule of thumb, 40,000 page views/month = $400 in revenue.
I have no idea if this is accurate, but I reckon it’s a fair description of the long taildistribution of blogging income: a few sites collect most of the revenue, and the rest is distributed over thousands of blogs with smaller audiences.
I’ve found that much of the advice about how to make money blogging suffers fromsurvivorship bias: a new writer could follow all the advice and not generate the income that was supposed to result from doing all the things that presumably created success.
I don’t presume to know what makes a blog acquire an audience, but if pressed I would offer these six quotes as potentially useful guidelines:
“You do not merely want to be considered just the best of the best. You want to be considered the only one who does what you do.” (Jerry Garcia)
“He who will not risk cannot win.” (John Paul Jones)
“All fixed set patterns are incapable of adaptability or pliability. The truth is outside of all fixed patterns.” (Bruce Lee)
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most adaptable to change.” (Charles Darwin)
“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.” (Winston Churchill)
“We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like?” (Jean Cocteau)
I’ve found that much of the advice about how to make money blogging suffers from survivorship bias.
I was surprised to read that Andrew Sullivan was closing down his blog and subscription service, as his site was apparently making a lot of money. By a lot I mean enough to have three employees, i.e. a lot in sole proprietor terms, but not in tech start-up terms, where young guys sell their ventures for $26 million and then go back to college because they want to play soccer on a college squad.
A bicyclist who boarded our car at the next stop was carrying a copy of The Lean Startup: How Today’s Entrepreneurs Use Continuous Innovation to Create Radically Successful Businesses which is something of a bible for youthful entrepreneurs seeking to cash in on the tech gold rush.
The tech gold rush offers about the same odds as the Yukon and California gold rushes in the 19th century. 100,000 strivers with little knowledge of what they were getting into headed out to grab some of that gold, and a mere handful found enough gold and kept enough of it to live large in San Francisco or back east.
The advantage of the tech gold rush is it’s a lot easier, cleaner and safer to sleep on a sofa in San Francisco and code your dreams on a laptop than it was to clamber up mountains, dig the ore out of hard rock with a pick and avoid getting shot in the back if you did strike a vein of gold.
The problem with finding gold is that much of the process boils down to luck and being first. Those who stumbled on the easy wealth could write an account of how they located the gold, but the account would not be as useful to those coming after as we might imagine, due to survivorship bias, a topic I’ve covered several times: The Unknown Unknowns and Survivor Bias (June 15, 2013)
Why Advice From Highly Successful People Is Misleading (and thus potentially harmful)(December 23, 2013)
Blogging, on the other hand, holds little prospect for wealth on the scale of $26 million. In fact, some bloggers can’t even afford an office or a cubicle–they have to work outdoors. Some of these poor devils can’t even afford a shirt on their back. Yes, blogging is a brutal business; look at this wretch, stripped to the waist and tapping out some foolishness:
image: http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2015/blogger-CHSa.jpg
OK, so your heart isn’t bleeding for this shirtless fool (actually, me).Tongue-in-cheek aside, blogging is not on anyone’s list of get-rich-quick schemes. The primary revenue streams are adverts, affiliate sales, direct sales and subscriptions. Even sites with audiences in the millions that are going full bore on all these fronts might generate $50,000 a month or more–very substantial over time but not $26 million.
The average income-producing blog generates a few hundred or perhaps a few thousand dollars a month for the writer/owner, roughly (so I’ve read) 1% of the site’s page views: by this rule of thumb, 40,000 page views/month = $400 in revenue.
I have no idea if this is accurate, but I reckon it’s a fair description of the long taildistribution of blogging income: a few sites collect most of the revenue, and the rest is distributed over thousands of blogs with smaller audiences.
I’ve found that much of the advice about how to make money blogging suffers fromsurvivorship bias: a new writer could follow all the advice and not generate the income that was supposed to result from doing all the things that presumably created success.
I don’t presume to know what makes a blog acquire an audience, but if pressed I would offer these six quotes as potentially useful guidelines:
“You do not merely want to be considered just the best of the best. You want to be considered the only one who does what you do.” (Jerry Garcia)
“He who will not risk cannot win.” (John Paul Jones)
“All fixed set patterns are incapable of adaptability or pliability. The truth is outside of all fixed patterns.” (Bruce Lee)
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most adaptable to change.” (Charles Darwin)
“Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.” (Winston Churchill)
“We must believe in luck. For how else can we explain the success of those we don’t like?” (Jean Cocteau)
Gold And Silver – Probability for A Lower Low Has Increased. Even With Lower Prices As A Possibility, Silver [and Gold] Is Artificially Being Suppressed.
by Michael Noonan
Mention is often made that one should wait for confirmation of a particular move in
futures before making a commitment, either way. Last week, it appeared evidence was
mounting that November could be a possible low for the correction since late 2011.
Then, we run across this graph from goldchartsrus.com which shows an inordinate
build-up of short positions in silver by what we would call “smart money,” “insiders.”
These large traders do not make such overtly strong commitments to the short side
without expectations that things will go their way. If anything can be said about the
market manipulators, mostly the elite’s central bankers/Wall Street/Fed, it does not
really matter as to accurate identity, for they hide their source[s] very well. What matters
is the outcome from the effort, and to date, there has been a lot of “smashing” success in
taking both silver and gold lower, at will, and with no opposition.
We will rely on the proverbial picture being worth 1,000 words and not add anything
further to the ominous implications that this chart portends, and it is why the probability
for a lower low has to be respected as a highly possible event. The breed of faction behind
these kind of moves make them for good reason and with near “slam dunk” assurances.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Silver-Shorts.bmp
Crude oil’s express elevator decline is an example of what can happen when those in
control decide to move a market. These days, almost every market is undergoing some
degree of manipulation to the extent that “free markets” are nonexistent. It should come
as no surprise that the troika US/CIA/Fed is directly behind most events whose outcomes
are typically destructive. If not directly involved, then the named trio, acting individually
or in concert, are indirectly involved as in the case of crude oil. An argument can be made
that the Saudi’s are purposefully punishing all opposition to their market by taking the
price of crude to levels that cannot be economically sustained by other world producers.
In particular, the US shale industry is being targeted as payback against the US for all the
past draconian measures taken against the Saudis, and the Saudis may well be taking
direction from China, or at least acting in concert with China as the “takedown” of the US
and its petrodollar are being driven into oblivion. Things are getting nasty, in the process,
and the US/Fed are acting more and more like cornered rats.
The elites have become terrified that everything they have been doing and working
toward, as in their New World Order, is at risk, something unthinkable until they started
messing with Putin and Russia. Putin has been a game-changer against the
moneychangers, and things have really gone south for the elites ever since Obama has |
been directed to impose unimposing sanctions on Russia. It has been Europe that is
suffering the most as a result of lost business and greater economic hardships imposed by
unelected, non-representative, US-led sycophant bureaucrats from the EU in Brussels.
It will be one of the world’s greatest ironies if Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s newly elected Prime
Minister from the upstart Syriza Party, becomes a huge factor in upsetting the EU’s money
apple cart and helping bring down the European Union, failed organization that it has
been. PM Tsipras is telling Germany, and the rest of the EU, that Greece does not want
their stinking loans anymore. The previous loans have destroyed Greece, its economy,
and ruined the lives of so many Greek citizens suffering under German/EU austerity.
Greece is a microcosm of all that is wrong with the unelected organizations, IMF, BIS,
EU, lending money created out of thin air, overburdening sovereign countries to the
point where each country can no longer survive under such onerous imposed debt
burdens. As other nations watch how Greece is giving the financial finger to Germany
and the EU, as politely and as pointedly as possible, there could be a domino effect that
would be disastrous and cause the breakup of the EU, which will happen anyway.
None of these events are directly correlated to the price of gold and silver, and these are
just a few of a myriad of events occurring around the world that are keeping a lid on the
PMs prices, for now. While all of the fundamental considerations are very valid, they
are not what is driving gold and silver. Ukraine, as an Obama false flag, sanctions against
Russia, the collapse of crude oil, the growing solidarity of the BRICS cartel, and now
Greece are all factors driving the destructive ways of the US/CIA/Fed as they fight for
survival. It will get uglier, and the first chart above may be a harbinger of what is yet
waiting in the wings.
The Concentration Of Traders Chart may influence silver over the next several months.
The timing of unfolding events is impossible with so many developing surprises, like
Greece. The reading of the charts is irrespective of specific news and/or events, but the
current prices do reflect all that is going on. We mention “anything can happen,” [crude
oil as a most recent example] a few times here because the charts do not show a likely or
immediate change in trend, so one has to go with “what is” as the charts currently show.
With a new recent low just two weeks ago, there is no way silver can be viewed as
being in anything other than a down trend with the possibility of still lower prices to
come. Even with lower prices as a possibility, silver [and gold] is artificially being
suppressed. When you reflect on the increasingly faster pace of events unfolding,
almost all negatively, owning silver and continuing to buy more and more is one of
the best ways to protect oneself from the financial failure that is certain to come.
Price should not matter, any more. You either have silver and gold or you do not.
If you do not, you are at grave financial risk when the US collapses economically,
and it will as the Fed’s fiat [worthless] “dollar” is increasingly under attack.
We have refrained from putting a time frame on when silver and gold will finally
break free from the manipulative forces, but 2015 could be a defining year. It
remains to be seen, but events are unfolding at such an increased level and so
unpredictably that this could be the year. We did not say this in 2013 nor in 2014,
and it may take going into 2016, but be prepared, or you will not be spared.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SI-M-31-Jan-14-880x612.gif
Silver’s direction has a greater degree of clarity than gold, at least in the charts. The
narrower range at resistance, 2 weeks ago, said sellers were protecting that price level
and preventing buyers from extending the range higher. Last week’s decline had greater
ease of downward movement, noted by the larger bar. This keeps silver on the defensive,
and caution is warranted.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SI-W-31-Jan-14-880x612.gif
The chart comments cover what else needs to be said.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SI-D-31-Jan-15-880x612.gif
The volume and price activity, since November 2014, has a more positive bias, but the
trend has not turned up, and caution is advised. This does not imply to exercise caution
in continuing to buy physical gold, and silver, as much as one reasonably can. Price will
not stay down here for much longer, nor may there be the degree of availability, either.
Best not to be penny wise and pound foolish.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GC-M-31-Jan-15-880x612.gif
As the chart comments imply, gold is not an easy read, nor should it be, given how it is in
the middle of a TR [Trading Range], where the level of knowledge is at its lowest when it
comes to making an informed decision. With a greater level of ambiguity in gold, the
somewhat more certainty of the silver charts may be a swaying factor, here.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GC-W-31-Jan-15-880x612.gif
The message is mixed on the daily. An area of apparent resistance held to push price
lower, last week, yet the activity is holding half-way retracement areas which is to be
expected in an up trending market, and less so in the current gold market.
A clearer analysis NMT. [Needs More Time].
Keep buying the physical, and do not fret over what you paid on previous purchases.
Physical gold and silver are being bought for a specific purpose, and price is not the
objective…security is. Remember: “if you do not hold it, you do not own it” has proven
to be true in too many cases. For sure, do not keep any gold or silver in a bank under
any circumstances, including and especially retirement accounts.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GC-D-31-Jan-15-880x612.gif
Mention is often made that one should wait for confirmation of a particular move in
futures before making a commitment, either way. Last week, it appeared evidence was
mounting that November could be a possible low for the correction since late 2011.
Then, we run across this graph from goldchartsrus.com which shows an inordinate
build-up of short positions in silver by what we would call “smart money,” “insiders.”
These large traders do not make such overtly strong commitments to the short side
without expectations that things will go their way. If anything can be said about the
market manipulators, mostly the elite’s central bankers/Wall Street/Fed, it does not
really matter as to accurate identity, for they hide their source[s] very well. What matters
is the outcome from the effort, and to date, there has been a lot of “smashing” success in
taking both silver and gold lower, at will, and with no opposition.
We will rely on the proverbial picture being worth 1,000 words and not add anything
further to the ominous implications that this chart portends, and it is why the probability
for a lower low has to be respected as a highly possible event. The breed of faction behind
these kind of moves make them for good reason and with near “slam dunk” assurances.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Silver-Shorts.bmp
Crude oil’s express elevator decline is an example of what can happen when those incontrol decide to move a market. These days, almost every market is undergoing some
degree of manipulation to the extent that “free markets” are nonexistent. It should come
as no surprise that the troika US/CIA/Fed is directly behind most events whose outcomes
are typically destructive. If not directly involved, then the named trio, acting individually
or in concert, are indirectly involved as in the case of crude oil. An argument can be made
that the Saudi’s are purposefully punishing all opposition to their market by taking the
price of crude to levels that cannot be economically sustained by other world producers.
In particular, the US shale industry is being targeted as payback against the US for all the
past draconian measures taken against the Saudis, and the Saudis may well be taking
direction from China, or at least acting in concert with China as the “takedown” of the US
and its petrodollar are being driven into oblivion. Things are getting nasty, in the process,
and the US/Fed are acting more and more like cornered rats.
The elites have become terrified that everything they have been doing and working
toward, as in their New World Order, is at risk, something unthinkable until they started
messing with Putin and Russia. Putin has been a game-changer against the
moneychangers, and things have really gone south for the elites ever since Obama has |
been directed to impose unimposing sanctions on Russia. It has been Europe that is
suffering the most as a result of lost business and greater economic hardships imposed by
unelected, non-representative, US-led sycophant bureaucrats from the EU in Brussels.
It will be one of the world’s greatest ironies if Alexis Tsipras, Greece’s newly elected Prime
Minister from the upstart Syriza Party, becomes a huge factor in upsetting the EU’s money
apple cart and helping bring down the European Union, failed organization that it has
been. PM Tsipras is telling Germany, and the rest of the EU, that Greece does not want
their stinking loans anymore. The previous loans have destroyed Greece, its economy,
and ruined the lives of so many Greek citizens suffering under German/EU austerity.
Greece is a microcosm of all that is wrong with the unelected organizations, IMF, BIS,
EU, lending money created out of thin air, overburdening sovereign countries to the
point where each country can no longer survive under such onerous imposed debt
burdens. As other nations watch how Greece is giving the financial finger to Germany
and the EU, as politely and as pointedly as possible, there could be a domino effect that
would be disastrous and cause the breakup of the EU, which will happen anyway.
None of these events are directly correlated to the price of gold and silver, and these are
just a few of a myriad of events occurring around the world that are keeping a lid on the
PMs prices, for now. While all of the fundamental considerations are very valid, they
are not what is driving gold and silver. Ukraine, as an Obama false flag, sanctions against
Russia, the collapse of crude oil, the growing solidarity of the BRICS cartel, and now
Greece are all factors driving the destructive ways of the US/CIA/Fed as they fight for
survival. It will get uglier, and the first chart above may be a harbinger of what is yet
waiting in the wings.
The Concentration Of Traders Chart may influence silver over the next several months.
The timing of unfolding events is impossible with so many developing surprises, like
Greece. The reading of the charts is irrespective of specific news and/or events, but the
current prices do reflect all that is going on. We mention “anything can happen,” [crude
oil as a most recent example] a few times here because the charts do not show a likely or
immediate change in trend, so one has to go with “what is” as the charts currently show.
With a new recent low just two weeks ago, there is no way silver can be viewed as
being in anything other than a down trend with the possibility of still lower prices to
come. Even with lower prices as a possibility, silver [and gold] is artificially being
suppressed. When you reflect on the increasingly faster pace of events unfolding,
almost all negatively, owning silver and continuing to buy more and more is one of
the best ways to protect oneself from the financial failure that is certain to come.
Price should not matter, any more. You either have silver and gold or you do not.
If you do not, you are at grave financial risk when the US collapses economically,
and it will as the Fed’s fiat [worthless] “dollar” is increasingly under attack.
We have refrained from putting a time frame on when silver and gold will finally
break free from the manipulative forces, but 2015 could be a defining year. It
remains to be seen, but events are unfolding at such an increased level and so
unpredictably that this could be the year. We did not say this in 2013 nor in 2014,
and it may take going into 2016, but be prepared, or you will not be spared.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SI-M-31-Jan-14-880x612.gif
Silver’s direction has a greater degree of clarity than gold, at least in the charts. Thenarrower range at resistance, 2 weeks ago, said sellers were protecting that price level
and preventing buyers from extending the range higher. Last week’s decline had greater
ease of downward movement, noted by the larger bar. This keeps silver on the defensive,
and caution is warranted.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SI-W-31-Jan-14-880x612.gif
The chart comments cover what else needs to be said.image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/SI-D-31-Jan-15-880x612.gif
The volume and price activity, since November 2014, has a more positive bias, but thetrend has not turned up, and caution is advised. This does not imply to exercise caution
in continuing to buy physical gold, and silver, as much as one reasonably can. Price will
not stay down here for much longer, nor may there be the degree of availability, either.
Best not to be penny wise and pound foolish.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GC-M-31-Jan-15-880x612.gif
As the chart comments imply, gold is not an easy read, nor should it be, given how it is inthe middle of a TR [Trading Range], where the level of knowledge is at its lowest when it
comes to making an informed decision. With a greater level of ambiguity in gold, the
somewhat more certainty of the silver charts may be a swaying factor, here.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GC-W-31-Jan-15-880x612.gif
The message is mixed on the daily. An area of apparent resistance held to push pricelower, last week, yet the activity is holding half-way retracement areas which is to be
expected in an up trending market, and less so in the current gold market.
A clearer analysis NMT. [Needs More Time].
Keep buying the physical, and do not fret over what you paid on previous purchases.
Physical gold and silver are being bought for a specific purpose, and price is not the
objective…security is. Remember: “if you do not hold it, you do not own it” has proven
to be true in too many cases. For sure, do not keep any gold or silver in a bank under
any circumstances, including and especially retirement accounts.
image: http://edgetraderplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GC-D-31-Jan-15-880x612.gif
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)