Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Silver Up & S&P Down

Silver has had three bad years while the S&P has had five good years. It is time for both markets to reverse.
Examine the following graph of Silver versus the Silver to S&P ratio. It tells me the ratio has returned to levels seen in 2008 and that the ratio follows the price of silver. This is interesting but not that helpful.
Click on image to enlarge.


Now examine the second graph in which the same ratio is plotted against the 14 month Relative Strength Index of the ratio. The RSI is a timing indicator that ranges between 0 – 100 and indicates buy zones when the indicator is low and sell zones when the RSI is high. Currently the RSI of the index is about 23 – quite low and indicating that the silver to S&P ratio should increase from here. Either the silver price should go up or the S&P should come down, or more likely, both will occur.
Click on image to enlarge.
Note the RSI of the ratio was about 16 at the end of December 2013 when silver hit its double-bottom lows. That RSI reading was the lowest in 25 years. The December low in silver should have been an important bottom in the silver market and an important bottom in the silver to S&P ratio.

So What Does This Prove?

In a world of High-Frequency-Trading, managed and manipulated markets, gold leasing, politics, and Quantitative Easing, it might mean very little. In the short term, markets can be moved rather easily by large traders and influential forces such as central banks. But, in a longer perspective, the ratio of silver to the S&P is at a low, the actual S&P 500 Index is near an all-time high, and the RSI timing indicator for the ratio was at a 25 year low in December. The next major move is much more likely to be a rise in silver prices and a fall in the S&P. That major move might be many weeks away, but it seems both inevitable and imminent.
Consider this 20 year chart of the S&P. Does the S&P look safe and healthy?
Click on image to enlarge.
Consider this 20 year chart of silver. Does silver look like it has bounced off an intermediate bottom in a long-term bull market?
Click on image to enlarge.

Conclusions

  • The S&P is near an all-time high and looks toppy.
  • Silver is near a 4 year low and looks like it has bottomed.
  • The silver to S&P ratio is at a 5 year low and looks like it has bottomed.
  • The RSI of the ratio hit a 25 year low in December.
  • There appears to be far more downside risk in the S&P than in silver.
  • In the short term, markets can be nudged up or down, but in the long term, the December 2013 low in silver looks like a turning point.
  • We will know in a few months if the December low was an intermediate bottom or a prelude to another low. My bet is that the December low holds and silver prices will be far higher in 3 years.
An intriguing article from Bill Holter that addresses silver, an interesting interpretation, and a possible answer to questions about silver supply is My Back And Forth Yesterday with John Embry. I encourage you to read it.
GE Christenson
aka Deviant Investor

Flashback: CNN "loses" feed during Peter Schiff interview, just as he begins to discuss the role of the Federal Reserve in causing the 2008 financial crisis


Confidence in U.S. Debt “Reaching a Tipping Point”

IN THIS INTERVIEW:
- Currency vs. Money ?2:39
- What kind of monetary system is best? ?9:35
- U.S. Dollar built on confidence, the system is “reaching a tipping point” ?12:48
- Cost of energy to rise significantly ?16:36
- Buy gold and enjoy Social Security & Medicare as it lasts ?21:22 
ABOUT OUR GUEST:
Paul studied chemical engineering and has an earned doctorate. He has studied the theory of money and credit for twenty years and although he agrees mostly with the Austrian School of Economics he has adopted some alternative views from others that explain the shortcomings of gold backed money systems and provide insight into what the next monetary system might look like. His channel (http://www.youtube.com/belangp) discusses this topic as well as the tight relationship between gold and oil. The contents of the channel are completely free and all are welcome to subscribe and participate in the discussions that take place there.
Subscribe to Paul ?http://bit.ly/sub_belangp
 SUBSCRIBE (It’s FREE!) to Reluctant Preppers, “Helping You Be Aware and Prepared” ?http://bit.ly/ReluctantPreppers
SUBSCRIBE (also FREE!) to “Finance and Liberty” for more interviews and financial insight ? http://bit.ly/Subscription-Link 
FINANCE AND LIBERTY:
Website ? http://FinanceAndLiberty.com
Like us on Facebook ?http://fb.com/FinanceAndLiberty
Follow us on Twitter ?http://twitter.com/Finance_Liberty
Google Plus ?http://Gplus.to/FinanceLiberty
Title and video graphics by Josiah Johnson Studios ?http://JosiahJohnsonStudios.com
Our sponsor Reluctant Preppers ? http://ReluctantPreppers.com
DISCLAIMER: The financial and political opinions expressed in this interview are those of the guest and not necessarily of “Finance and Liberty” or its staff. Opinions expressed in this video do not constitute personalized investment advice and should not be relied on for making investment decisions.

Read more at http://investmentwatchblog.com/confidence-in-u-s-debt-reaching-a-tipping-point/#H3lSbsFGRChkjL72.99

Food Chain CEOs Want Subsidies for Their Salaries, But Are Against Raising Workers’ Wages

Sarah Anderson
RINF Alternative News

You might say the chieftains of America’s largest restaurant corporations want it every which way and then some.
Having read the polls supporting a minimum wage hike, they’re skittish about trashing the idea personally. So they pay their DC lobby machine to do their dirty work. And it’s not enough for them to shove the costs of their low-wage model onto Joe Schmo taxpayer. These CEOs are also making the rest of us pay for their own fat paychecks.
How’s that again? Yes, ordinary taxpayers are not only covering the cost of billions of dollars in public assistance for restaurant workers who earn poverty wages. We’re also subsidizing the pay of our nation’s notoriously overpaid CEOs.
Here’s how it works: Under the current tax code, corporations can deduct no more than $1 million for executive pay from their federal income taxes. But there’s a giant loophole that allows unlimited deductions for “performance pay.” So, no surprise, what the big corporations tend to do is put about $1 million of their executive pay packages toward salary and call the rest “performance pay.” That way the more they shovel into their CEO’s pockets, the less they pay Uncle Sam. And the rest of us foot the bill.
A new report I co-authored at the Institute for Policy Studies explains how the 20 largest corporate members of the National Restaurant Association have benefited from this loophole. These corporations aren’t necessarily bigger exploiters than those in other sectors. But they deserve extra scrutiny because of the high social costs of their low-wage model—and because they’re fighting so hard to preserve it.
Nearly all of the big restaurant corporations are members of the National Restaurant Association, which is leading the charge against minimum wage increases.
1. Starbucks
In 2012 and 2013, Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz took in $1.5 million per year in salary, which is subject to the $1 million deductibility cap. But that was just the foam on top of a triple venti.
Now we get to the serious money. Schultz cashed in stock options worth $230 million over this two-year period. For good measure, the board tossed him $2 million-plus incentive bonuses each year. Both of these types of compensation fall into the “performance pay” loophole.
So how much does Starbucks get to subtract from its tax bill for the cost of this one guy’s “performance pay”? $82 million.
That’s a lotta lattes.
Like several other big restaurant CEOs, Schultz has taken a soft line on the minimum wage. That is, when asked about it personally. Meanwhile, Starbucks remains a member in good standing of the National Restaurant Association, which is deploying dozens of lobbyists to block a wage increase.
2. Yum! Brands
Next time you’re shelling out for a Gordita Supreme at Taco Bell, keep in mind that you’re also contributing to a grande-sized paycheck for the CEO of the chain’s parent company, Yum! Brands.
Yum! CEO David Novak took $67 million in “performance pay” over the years 2012 and 2013, which lowered the firm’s federal tax bill by about $23 million.
Low-level workers at Taco Bell and Yum!’s other chains (Pizza Hut and KFC) earn less than $8 per hour on average. Since that’s not a living wage anywhere in the United States, it’s no surprise that many Yum! workers must rely on Medicaid or other taxpayer-funded anti-poverty programs to make ends meet. The National Employment Law Project estimates that Yum! employees receive nearly $650 million in public assistance annually.
In addition to the firm’s membership in the NRA, Yum! has also been active with the American Legislative Exchange Council. In 2011, a Yum! official co-led an ALEC task force focused on blocking paid sick leave benefits. Rather than giving sick employees a break, it seems they’d rather have them sneezing on your Gordita.
3. Chipotle
Chipotle has invested heavily in developing a progressive customer base by projecting the image of a “sustainable” fast food alternative. So it’s not surprising that the firm’s top brass have shied away from speaking out personally against the popular push to raise the minimum wage.
Co-CEO Monty Moran has commented that average wages at Chipotle are already $9 and so the effect of raising the minimum to $10 would be “not too significant.” Like other image-conscious CEOs, Moran appears to prefer to have his Washington lobby shop, the NRA, handle the dirty work on this issue.
Moran is probably also reluctant to draw attention to his own paycheck. The company has an extremely top-heavy pay structure in part because it has two CEOs. In 2012, Moran cashed $55 million in stock options and his co-CEO, Steve Ells, cashed in $47 million. In 2013, both men received more than $20 million in vested performance stock and Ells exercised another $42 million in options. Altogether, their 2012-2013 “performance pay” generated a CEO pay subsidy for Chipotle of $69 million.
4. Dunkin’ Brands
At the helm of Dunkin’ Donuts and Baskin Robbins, CEO Nigel Travis cashed in on more than $20 million in stock options in both 2012 and 2013, generating a performance pay tax subsidy for the company of more than $15 million. For comparison’s sake, that $15 million would be enough to cover the cost of one public assistance program on which many fast food workers rely, the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, for 9,608 households for a year.
Like the CEOs of Starbucks and Chipotle, Travis has taken a soft line on the minimum wage when speaking out personally. In one recent interview, he said, “We believe the minimum wage will go up. So there’s no point fighting that.” Maybe there’s no point for Travis. He’s got the NRA to do that job.
5. McDonald’s
In his first six months as CEO in 2012, CEO Donald Thompson took in more than $10 million in “performance pay,” which translates into a $3.5 million subsidy for the company. Last year, Thompson’s haul was more modest because he opted not to cash in any of his hundreds of thousands of exercisable “in-the-money” stock options.
Faced with a wave of worker protest actions, he may have decided to hold off on a big payout until the spotlight on the fast food giant is not quite so bright. On top of growing demands for living wages, the company has also faced a spate of wage theft charges. In 2013, the company settled a New York case for $500,000 and workers in two additional states recently filed similar suits. Due to the company’s notoriously low wages, McDonald’s workers rely on an estimated $1.2 billion in public assistance per year, according to the National Employment Law Project.
6. Darden
Among full-service restaurant chains, Darden has enjoyed the largest CEO pay subsidy. The owner of Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn Steakhouse, Bahama Breeze, and Capital Grille, Darden is the world’s largest full-service restaurant company. In 2012 and 2013, CEO Clarence Otis received nearly $9 million in fully deductible “performance pay,” which works out to a more than $3 million taxpayer subsidy for the company.
Darden pays at least 20 percent of its U.S. employees only the federal minimum wage for tipped workers, which has remained at $2.13 an hour for more than 20 years. Together with the NRA, they’re lobbying hard to keep it that way.
The NRA will be among the targets of a demonstration organized by several grassroots organizations on April 28 under the theme of “kicking corporate cash out of Congress.”
Restaurant Opportunities Centers United, which has built a network of thousands of restaurant workers and high-road employers to improve industry standards, is partnering with the National Domestic Workers Alliance and National People’s Action to urge elected officials to put the interests of regular people first. The following day, members of the NRA will converge in Washington for a major lobby push against increasing the minimum wage.
It’s time the big restaurant CEOs were called out on their paycheck hypocrisy. For too long they’ve been sticking taxpayers with the bill for their bad pay practices —at both the bottom and the top ends of the corporate ladder.
Sarah Anderson directs the Global Economy Project at the Institute for Policy Studies and is a co-author of the Institute’s 20th anniversary Executive Excess report, “Bailed Out, Booted, and Busted.”

SKYSCRAPER in CHINA Catches FIRE But Does NOT COLLAPSE Unlike 9/11


Russian gas giant buys 50% stake of South Stream

The pipeline, one of the world’s biggest infrastructure projects, aims to bolster Europe’s energy security by diversifying natural gas supply routes [PPIO]
The pipeline, one of the world’s biggest infrastructure projects, aims to bolster Europe’s energy security by diversifying natural gas supply routes [PPIO]
Even as the EU remains split on deciding policy for the pipeline, Russian gas giant Gazprom on Tuesday approved the purchase from its Berlin-based subsidiary of 50 per cent of the shares of South Stream Transport. Gazprom Germania will sell 205,990 shares of Dutch-based South Stream Transport to the Russian energy giant, according to the resolution approved by the Gazprom Board of Directors.
South Stream Transport, an international joint venture of Gazprom, Italy’s ENI, France’s EDF and Germany’s Wintershall Holding, is in charge of building the undersea portion of the South Stream gas pipeline.
The 2,400-kilometre-long South Stream would cross the Black Sea to reach Bulgaria and other EU members beyond.
A contract to build the first of four marine lines for the project was signed with Italian company Saipem last month.
Russian and international oil and gas majors are cooperating as usual despite sanctions imposed over Ukraine, and Russia’s South Stream gas pipeline project is going ahead.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said last week the country is continuing work on the pipeline project, including holding consultations with Europe. The pipeline, one of the world’s biggest infrastructure projects, aims to bolster Europe’s energy security by diversifying natural gas supply routes.
South Stream is to cross the Black Sea to ship Russian gas to South and Central Europe. For the onshore sections, Russia has signed intergovernmental agreements with Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Greece, Slovenia and Croatia.
The construction of South Stream began in 2012 near the Russian city of Anapa, with the first gas to pass through the pipeline in the first quarter of 2016, before becoming fully operational in 2018.
South Stream would require numerous regulatory approvals from the EU as well as the individual member states it would pass through.
Russia’s natural gas output will reach 812 billion cubic meters by 2035, topping the United States haul by four billion cubic meters, Russian energy experts said Monday.
The forecast by the Academy of Sciences’ Energy Research Institute together with a Russian government analyst center said the United States is expected to cut its shale gas production by 2040.

Source: Agencies

Video: Is The US Military Preparing For The Collapse Of The Dollar?

It almost happened in 2008… but as this excerpt from Casey Research’s Meltdown America documentary notes, it appears the US military is preparing for the potential collapse of the US dollar. As Scott Taylor warns, “…if the carrot (of credit worthiness) is fading, and the stick (of military threat) is weak, that empire is going to come down in a hurry…” which leaves a serial economic mis-manager only one option to ‘secure’ the empire.

To see what the consequences of economic mismanagement can be, and how stealthily disaster can creep up on you, watch the 30-minute documentary, Meltdown America. Witness the harrowing tales of three ordinary people who lived through a crisis, and how their experiences warn of the turmoil that could soon reach the US. Click here to watch it now.
Via Zero Hedge