Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Higher Education: America’s Problem That Isn’t Being Solved

Once we accredit the student, not the institution, existing universities will compete directly with Nearly Free Universities not in issuing diplomas but in how much students actually learned and mastered.
One of the key insights from recent work in psychology is that humans tend to substitute easier problems rather than solve difficult problems. Daniel Kahneman explained this dynamic in his recent book Thinking, Fast and Slow.
To “solve” a difficult problem we are unfamiliar with, we substitute a lesser problem we already know the answer to, and then declare we’ve “solved” the original (often knotty, complex) problem.
The real problem then festers, unsolved and addressed, while the misguided “solution” only drains resources and exacerbates the real problem.
An excellent example of this dynamic is higher education: the real problems are soaring costs and sharply declining yields in actual learning and in the real-world value of a diploma.
Consider the study Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses which concluded that “American higher education is characterized by limited or no learning for a large proportion of students.”
These charts illustrate the costs and diminishing returns:
The yield (in earnings) on the increasingly unaffordable college degree is declining sharply:
The Status Quo has substituted two false “solutions” that completely ignore the real problems of soaring costs and diminishing returns: increasing student loans and hiring hundreds of thousands of non-teaching administrators.
While student loans have soared to over $1 trillion, with direct Federal loans ballooning from $115 billion to over $700 billion in a few short years, only 37% of freshmen at four-year colleges graduate in four years (58% finally graduate in six years), and 53% of recent college graduates under the age of 25 are unemployed or doing work they could have done without going to college.
In all, from 1987 until 2011-12–the most recent academic year for which comparable figures are available—universities and colleges collectively added 517,636 administrators and professional employees, according to the analysis by the New England Center for Investigative Reporting.“There’s just a mind-boggling amount of money per student that’s being spent on administration,” said Andrew Gillen, a senior researcher at the institutes. “It raises a question of priorities.”
The ratio of nonacademic employees to faculty has also doubled. There are now two nonacademic employees at public and two and a half at private universities and colleges for every one full-time, tenure-track member of the faculty.
The number of employees in central system offices has increased six-fold since 1987, and the number of administrators in them by a factor of more than 34.
I have demonstrated in my book The Nearly Free University and The Emerging Economy: The Revolution in Higher Education that the tuition for a four-year bachelor’s degree could (and should) cost $5,000, not $100,000 or $200,000.
The technology and tools already exist to accredit the student, not the institution and provide distributed courses, adaptive learning and real-world, workplace-based workshops for a tiny fraction of the ineffective, unaffordable system of higher education we are currently burdened with.
Once costs decline 95%, there is no need for student loans or the bloated bureaucracies currently overseeing the parasitic student-loan system.
Once we accredit the student, not the institution, existing universities will compete directly with Nearly Free Universities not in issuing diplomas but in how much students actually learned and mastered. If students can learn as much or more for $5,000 (including workshops in real-world workplaces) than they do for $160,000 in conventional universities, then the sectors of higher education that charge $160,000 for a 4-year degree will vanish.
In essence, technology has leapfrogged the existing higher education Status Quo, just as it has leapfrogged the banking sector.
Gordon T. Long and I discuss these issues in this 25-minute program:
Here is a taste of what we discuss:
THE LEGACY SYSTEM IS OBSOLETE
  • Media and knowledge are no longer scarce—both are essentially free
  • Students no longer need to be congregated in classrooms to hear oral lectures; the lectures can be distributed at almost no cost via the Internet
  • The factory model of teaching the same texts and curriculum no longer makes sense; every digital device is a library and a display for oral lectures
  • Lessons and methodologies of learning can now be tailored to individual students (adaptive learning) via interactive software
  • The need for live oral lectures as the primary (and presumed to be best) mode of teaching has vanished
  • Students learn mastery in workshops held in real-world workplaces, not classroomsTHE FUNDAMENTALS HAVE CHANGED
  • Colleges must separate Research and Educational funding
  • Education versus Occupational Training
  • Internships versus Apprenticeships; why corporations are no longer training
  • “Time is the New Competitive Dimension;” the educational systems needs to understand what this means
  • The New Economy requires Soft Skills such as Collaboration, Lifetime Learning, Continual Innovation and the full spectrum of Entrepreneurial Skills


Att Gen Eric Holder makes up ‘laws’ for banks to follow about marijuana so to avoid HUGE money-laundering


Att Gen Eric Holder makes up ‘laws’ for banks to follow about marijuana so to avoid HUGE money-laundering Wachovia Bank billions of Afghan Heroin

One-Percent Jokes and Plutocrats in Drag: What I Saw When I Crashed a Wall Street Secret Society

Recently, our nation’s financial chieftains have been feeling a little unloved. Venture capitalists are comparing the persecution of the rich to the plight of Jews at Kristallnacht, Wall Street titans are saying that they’re sick of being beaten up, and this week, a billionaire investor, Wilbur Ross, proclaimed that “the 1 percent is being picked on for political reasons.”
Ross's statement seemed particularly odd, because two years ago, I met Ross at an event that might single-handedly explain why the rest of the country still hates financial tycoons – the annual black-tie induction ceremony of a secret Wall Street fraternity called Kappa Beta Phi.
Adapted
from Kevin Roose’s book Young Money, published today by Grand Central Publishing.
“Good evening, Exalted High Council, former Grand Swipes, Grand Swipes-in-waiting, fellow Wall Street Kappas, Kappas from the Spring Street and Montgomery Street chapters, and worthless neophytes!”
It was January 2012, and Ross, wearing a tuxedo and purple velvet moccasins embroidered with the fraternity’s Greek letters, was standing at the dais of the St. Regis Hotel ballroom, welcoming a crowd of two hundred wealthy and famous Wall Street figures to the Kappa Beta Phi dinner. Ross, the leader (or “Grand Swipe”) of the fraternity, was preparing to invite 21 new members — “neophytes,” as the group called them — to join its exclusive ranks.
Looking up at him from an elegant dinner of rack of lamb and foie gras were many of the most famous investors in the world, including executives from nearly every too-big-to-fail bank, private equity megafirm, and major hedge fund. AIG CEO Bob Benmosche was there, as were Wall Street superlawyer Marty Lipton and Alan “Ace” Greenberg, the former chairman of Bear Stearns. And those were just the returning members. Among the neophytes were hedge fund billionaire and major Obama donor Marc Lasry and Joe Reece, a high-ranking dealmaker at Credit Suisse. [To see the full Kappa Beta Phi member list, click here.] All told, enough wealth and power was concentrated in the St. Regis that night that if you had dropped a bomb on the roof, global finance as we know it might have ceased to exist.
During his introductory remarks, Ross spoke for several minutes about the legend of Kappa Beta Phi – how it had been started in 1929 by “four C+ William and Mary students”; how its crest, depicting a “macho right hand in a proper Savile Row suit and a Turnbull and Asser shirtsleeve,” was superior to that of its namesake Phi Beta Kappa (Ross called Phi Beta Kappa’s ruffled-sleeve logo a “tacit confession of homosexuality”); and how the fraternity’s motto, “Dum vivamus edimus et biberimus,” was Latin for “While we live, we eat and drink.”
On cue, the financiers shouted out in a thundering bellow: “DUM VIVAMUS EDIMUS ET BIBERIMUS.”
The only person not saying the chant along with Ross was me — a journalist who had sneaked into the event, and who was hiding out at a table in the back corner in a rented tuxedo.
Several Kappas at the table next to me, presumably discussing the coming plutocracy.
I’d heard whisperings about the existence of Kappa Beta Phi, whose members included both incredibly successful financiers (New York City's Mayor Michael Bloomberg, former Goldman Sachs chairman John Whitehead, hedge-fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones) and incredibly unsuccessful ones (Lehman Brothers CEO Dick Fuld, Bear Stearns CEO Jimmy Cayne, former New Jersey governor and MF Global flameout Jon Corzine). It was a secret fraternity, founded at the beginning of the Great Depression, that functioned as a sort of one-percenter’s Friars Club. Each year, the group’s dinner features comedy skits, musical acts in drag, and off-color jokes, and its group’s privacy mantra is “What happens at the St. Regis stays at the St. Regis.” For eight decades, it worked. No outsider in living memory had witnessed the entire proceedings firsthand.
A Kappa neophyte (left) chats up a vet.
I wanted to break the streak for several reasons. As part of my research for my book, Young Money, I’d been investigating the lives of young Wall Street bankers – the 22-year-olds toiling at the bottom of the financial sector’s food chain. I knew what made those people tick. But in my career as a financial journalist, one question that proved stubbornly elusive was what happened to Wall Streeters as they climbed the ladder to adulthood. Whenever I’d interviewed CEOs and chairmen at big Wall Street firms, they were always too guarded, too on-message and wrapped in media-relations armor to reveal anything interesting about the psychology of the ultra-wealthy. But if I could somehow see these barons in their natural environment, with their defenses down, I might be able to understand the world my young subjects were stepping into.
So when I learned when and where Kappa Beta Phi’s annual dinner was being held, I knew I needed to try to go.
Getting in was shockingly easy — a brisk walk past the sign-in desk, and I was inside cocktail hour. Immediately, I saw faces I recognized from the papers. I picked up an event program and saw that there were other boldface names on the Kappa Beta Phi membership roll — among them, then-Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, Home Depot billionaire Ken Langone, Morgan Stanley bigwig Greg Fleming, and JPMorgan Chase vice chairman Jimmy Lee. Any way you count, this was one of the most powerful groups of business executives in the world. (Since I was a good 20 years younger than any other attendee, I suspect that anyone taking note of my presence assumed I was a waiter.)
I hadn’t counted on getting in to the Kappa Beta Phi dinner, and now that I had gotten past security, I wasn’t sure quite what to do. I wanted to avoid rousing suspicion, and I knew that talking to people would get me outed in short order. So I did the next best thing — slouched against a far wall of the room, and pretended to tap out emails on my phone.
The 2012 Kappa Beta Phi neophyte class.
After cocktail hour, the new inductees – all of whom were required to dress in leotards and gold-sequined skirts, with costume wigs – began their variety-show acts. Among the night’s lowlights:
• Paul Queally, a private-equity executive with Welsh, Carson, Anderson, & Stowe, told off-color jokes to Ted Virtue, another private-equity bigwig with MidOcean Partners. The jokes ranged from unfunny and sexist (Q: “What’s the biggest difference between Hillary Clinton and a catfish?” A: “One has whiskers and stinks, and the other is a fish”) to unfunny and homophobic (Q: “What’s the biggest difference between Barney Frank and a Fenway Frank?” A: “Barney Frank comes in different-size buns”).
• Bill Mulrow, a top executive at the Blackstone Group (who was later appointed chairman of the New York State Housing Finance Agency), and Emil Henry, a hedge fund manager with Tiger Infrastructure Partners and former assistant secretary of the Treasury, performed a bizarre two-man comedy skit. Mulrow was dressed in raggedy, tie-dye clothes to play the part of a liberal radical, and Henry was playing the part of a wealthy baron. They exchanged lines as if staging a debate between the 99 percent and the 1 percent. (“Bill, look at you! You’re pathetic, you liberal! You need a bath!” Henry shouted. “My God, you callow, insensitive Republican! Don’t you know what we need to do? We need to create jobs,” Mulrow shot back.)
• David Moore, Marc Lasry, and Keith Meister — respectively, a holding company CEO, a billionaire hedge-fund manager, and an activist investor — sang a few seconds of a finance-themed parody of “YMCA” before getting the hook.
• Warren Stephens, an investment banking CEO, took the stage in a Confederate flag hat and sang a song about the financial crisis, set to the tune of “Dixie.” (“In Wall Street land we’ll take our stand, said Morgan and Goldman. But first we better get some loans, so quick, get to the Fed, man.”)
A few more acts followed, during which the veteran Kappas continued to gorge themselves on racks of lamb, throw petits fours at the stage, and laugh uproariously. Michael Novogratz, a former Army helicopter pilot with a shaved head and a stocky build whose firm, Fortress Investment Group, had made him a billionaire, was sitting next to me, drinking liberally and annotating each performance with jokes and insults.
“Can you fuckin’ believe Lasry up there?” Novogratz asked me. I nodded. He added, “He just gave me a ride in his jet a month ago.”
The neophytes – who had changed from their drag outfits into Mormon missionary costumes — broke into their musical finale: a parody version of “I Believe,” the hit ballad from The Book of Mormon, with customized lyrics like “I believe that God has a plan for all of us. I believe my plan involves a seven-figure bonus.” Amused, I pulled out my phone, and began recording the proceedings on video. Wrong move.
The grand finale, a parody of "I Believe" from The Book of Mormon
“Who the hell are you?” Novogratz demanded.
I felt my pulse spike. I was tempted to make a run for it, but – due to the ethics code of the New York Times, my then-employer – I had no choice but to out myself.
“I’m a reporter,” I said.
Novogratz stood up from the table.
"You’re not allowed to be here," he said.
I, too, stood, and tried to excuse myself, but he grabbed my arm and wouldn’t let go.
“Give me that or I’ll fucking break it!” Novogratz yelled, grabbing for my phone, which was filled with damning evidence. His eyes were bloodshot, and his neck veins were bulging. The song onstage was now over, and a number of prominent Kappas had rushed over to our table. Before the situation could escalate dangerously, a bond investor and former Grand Swipe named Alexandra Lebenthal stepped in between us. Wilbur Ross quickly followed, and the two of them led me out into the lobby, past a throng of Wall Street tycoons, some of whom seemed to be hyperventilating.
Once we made it to the lobby, Ross and Lebenthal reassured me that what I’d just seen wasn’t really a group of wealthy and powerful financiers making homophobic jokes, making light of the financial crisis, and bragging about their business conquests at Main Street’s expense. No, it was just a group of friends who came together to roast each other in a benign and self-deprecating manner. Nothing to see here.
But the extent of their worry wasn’t made clear until Ross offered himself up as a source for future stories in exchange for my cooperation.
“I’ll pick up the phone anytime, get you any help you need,” he said.
“Yeah, the people in this group could be very helpful,” Lebenthal chimed in. “If you could just keep their privacy in mind.”
I wasn’t going to be bribed off my story, but I understood their panic.  Here, after all, was a group that included many of the executives whose firms had collectively wrecked the global economy in 2008 and 2009. And they were laughing off the entire disaster in private, as if it were a long-forgotten lark. (Or worse, sing about it — one of the last skits of the night was a self-congratulatory parody of ABBA’s “Dancing Queen,” called “Bailout King.”) These were activities that amounted to a gigantic middle finger to Main Street and that, if made public, could end careers and damage very public reputations.
After several more minutes spent trying to do damage control, Ross and Lebenthal escorted me out of the St. Regis.
As I walked through the streets of midtown in my ill-fitting tuxedo, I thought about the implications of what I’d just seen.
The first and most obvious conclusion was that the upper ranks of finance are composed of people who have completely divorced themselves from reality. No self-aware and socially conscious Wall Street executive would have agreed to be part of a group whose tacit mission is to make light of the financial sector’s foibles. Not when those foibles had resulted in real harm to millions of people in the form of foreclosures, wrecked 401(k)s, and a devastating unemployment crisis.
The second thing I realized was that Kappa Beta Phi was, in large part, a fear-based organization. Here were executives who had strong ideas about politics, society, and the work of their colleagues, but who would never have the courage to voice those opinions in a public setting. Their cowardice had reduced them to sniping at their perceived enemies in the form of satirical songs and sketches, among only those people who had been handpicked to share their view of the world. And the idea of a reporter making those views public had caused them to throw a mass temper tantrum.
The last thought I had, and the saddest, was that many of these self-righteous Kappa Beta Phi members had surely been first-year bankers once. And in the 20, 30, or 40 years since, something fundamental about them had changed. Their pursuit of money and power had removed them from the larger world to the sad extent that, now, in the primes of their careers, the only people with whom they could be truly themselves were a handful of other prominent financiers.
Perhaps, I realized, this social isolation is why despite extraordinary evidence to the contrary, one-percenters like Ross keep saying how badly persecuted they are. When you’re a member of the fraternity of money, it can be hard to see past the foie gras to the real world.
Copyright 2014 by Kevin Roose. Reprinted by permission of Grand Central Publishing. All rights reserved.

NBC News: $787 Billion Stimulus = 4.2 Million Jobs Added (Actually 1.25 Million Jobs At $629,600 Per Job)

According to NBC News, “When the $787 billion federal stimulus was signed into law exactly five years ago this Monday, the U.S. economy was losing almost 800,000 jobs per month. Now? More than 4.2 million jobs have been added since March 2009.”
Actually, the civilian labor force has grown by only 1,250,000 since January 2009.
civlaborforce
And the civilian labor force participation rate has fallen from 77.6 in January 2009 to 75.6% today.
clfp
Real median household income has fallen from $53,285 in 2009 to around $51,000 in 2013.
rincclp
So, the Federal stimulus of $787 billion translated into $629,600 per job added since January 2009. And a decrease in real median household income of over $2,000.
And you wondered why M2 Money Velocity was so low?
fedm2vwelrealmed
I know, I know. Nobel Laureates Paul Krugman and Joe Stiglitz want MORE stimulus!

Today’s Stimulus Anniversary Parade in Washington DC with taxpayers showing their appreciation for adding 1.25 million jobs at $629,600 per job.

paraade

Obama Admin’s TPP Trade Officials Received Hefty Bonuses From Big Banks




Stefan Selig
Posted at 9:00 am by Lee Fang
Officials tapped by the Obama administration to lead the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade negotiations have received multimillion dollar bonuses from CitiGroup and Bank of America, financial disclosures obtained by Republic Report show.
Stefan Selig, a Bank of America investment banker nominated to become the Under Secretary for International Trade at the Department of Commerce, received more than $9 million in bonus pay as he was nominated to join the administration in November. The bonus pay came in addition to the $5.1 million in incentive pay awarded to Selig last year.
Michael Froman, the current U.S. Trade Representative, received over $4 million as part of multiple exit payments when he left CitiGroup to join the Obama administration. Froman told Senate Finance Committee members last summer that he donated approximately 75 percent of the $2.25 million bonus he received for his work in 2008 to charity. CitiGroup also gave Froman a $2 million payment in connection to his holdings in two investment funds, which was awarded “in recognition of [Froman's] service to Citi in various capacities since 1999.”
Many large corporations with a strong incentive to influence public policy award bonuses and other incentive pay to executives if they take jobs within the government. CitiGroup, for instance, provides an executive contract that awards additional retirement pay upon leaving to take a “full time high level position with the U.S. government or regulatory body.” Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, the Blackstone Group, Fannie Mae, Northern Trust, and Northrop Grumman are among the other firms that offer financial rewards upon retirement for government service.
Froman joined the administration in 2009. Selig is currently awaiting Senate confirmation before he can take his post, which collaborates with the trade officials to support the TPP.
The controversial TPP trade deal has rankled activists for containing provisions that would newly empower corporations to sue governments in ad hoc arbitration tribunals to demand compensation from governments for laws and regulations they claim undermine their business interests. Leaked TPP negotiation documents show the Obama administration is seeking to prevent foreign governments from issuing a broad variety of financial rules designed to stem another bank crisis.
A leaked text of the TPP’s investment chapter shows that the pact would include the controversial investor-state dispute resolution system. A fact-sheet provided by Public Citizen explains how multi-national corporations may use the TPP deal to skirt domestic courts and local laws. The arrangement would allows corporations to go after governments before foreign tribunals to demand compensations for tobacco, prescription drug and environment protections that they claim would undermine their expected future profits. Last year, Senator Elizabeth Warren warned that trade agreements such as the TPP provide “a chance for these banks to get something done quietly out of sight that they could not accomplish in a public place with the cameras rolling and the lights on.”
Others have raised similar alarm.
“Not only do US treaties mandate that all forms of finance move across borders freely and without delay, but deals such as the TPP would allow private investors to directly file claims against governments that regulate them, as opposed to a WTO-like system where nation states (ie the regulators) decide whether claims are brought,” notes Boston University associate professor Kevin Gallagher.
Filed under: Plutocrats

Global Gold Coin And Bar Demand Surged 28% To Record 1,654 Tonnes In 2013

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,314.00, EUR 957.59 and GBP 787.44 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,326.00, EUR 967.60 and GBP 791.97 per ounce.
LBMA closing fix yesterday was USD 1,327.50, EUR 968.55 and GBP 794.15 per ounce.
The U.S. markets were closed for the President’s Day holiday yesterday.
Gold drifted lower today as traders took profits from recent gains, but gold held not far off 3 and a 1/2 month highs due to a weaker U.S. dollar and concerns over U.S. and global economic growth.
Gold in U.S. Dollars, 5 Years – (Bloomberg)
Bullion is up 10% this year as investors and store of value buyers see the 28% fall in 2013 as a buying opportunity. The volatility and weakness in equities globally due to emerging market turmoil and economic concerns is leading to safe haven demand.
Silver also fell but wasn’t too far from a 3-1/2 month high of $21.96 hit on Monday. Spot silver prices rose for a 12th day yesterday, the longest rally since at least 1968, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
The World Gold Council’s global supply and demand figures have been released. They confirm what was already known – huge physical demand for coins and bars globally was counter acted by  significant liquidations by COMEX speculators and weak hand ETF investors.
Gold Demand Trends Full Year 2013 makes interesting reading nevertheless. The World Gold Council said full-year 2013 gold demand was 3,756 tonnes, valued at $170 billion and down from 4,415 tonnes in the previous year due to ETF liquidations.
The data confirms that 2013 saw record demand for coins and bars globally but especially in China, Japan and much of Asia.
Annual global investment in bars and coins reached 1,654 tonnes, up from 1,289 tonnes in 2012, a rise of 28%, and the highest figure since the World Gold Council’s data series began in 1992. For the full year, Chinese and Indian investment in gold bars and coins was up 38% and 16%, respectively.
Although much smaller markets in terms of volume, in the U.S. bar and coin demand was up 26% to 68 tonnes, and in Turkey it was up 113% to 102 tonnes.
China became the world’s largest store of wealth buyer of gold in 2013. They are not consumers as only a tiny fraction of  gold is ever consumed. Chinese people bought a record 1,066 metric tons of gold last year, as sudden price falls led to a 32% jump in bars, coins and jewelry buying.
China’s increased purchases helped limit the decline in gold prices as western speculators and investors sold 869.1 tons through exchange-traded products backed by bullion.
Chinese gold demand surged past Indian demand making China the world’s number one buyer of gold. However, India’s gold demand remained buoyant in 2013 and rose by 13% to 945 tonnes compared to 2012.  The Indian demand number does not capture the full level of demand as the governments punitive import taxes led to a huge jump in black market activity and the smuggling of gold in huge quantities into India.
Gold demand in Japan jumped threefold in 2013 as people in Japan sought refuge from Prime Minister ShinzoAbe’s campaign to stoke inflation and weaken the yen. Demand for jewelry, bars and coins increased to 21.3 metric tons last year from 6.6 tons in 2012. Demand for jewelry rose 5.4% to 17.6 tons and Japan became a net buyer of bars and coins for the first time since 2005 with 3.7 tons of purchases. There is scope for a massive increase in Japanese  investment, pension and store of wealth demand in the coming years.
Central banks added 61 tons to gold reserves in the fourth quarter, the least since the end of 2010, and full-year purchases declined 32% to 368.6 tons, according to the council. Nations added to holdings for 12 consecutive quarters and will continue purchasing amounts in the hundreds of tons which should support gold.
It is important to note that full-year 2013 total global gold demand of 3,756 tonnes is worth just $170 billion which is what the Federal Reserve prints in less than three months. It is much less than what the Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ and PBOC and other central banks are printing every month.
Global gold coin and bar demand at 1,654 tonnes per annum is worth just $75 billion which is not far off what the Federal Reserve is printing each month now. This shows how while demand has increased in recent years, the demand is very sustainable and there remains room for a significant jump in demand in the coming years.
Webinar: Gerald Celente On Strategies For Protecting Your Wealth In 2014 And BeyondJoin Gerald Celente on this broadcast this Thursday as he examines the opportunities in 2014 and in the coming uncertain years.
Gerald Celente needs little introduction: Founder of The Trends Research Institute in 1980, Gerald Celente is a pioneer trend strategist. He is author of the national bestseller Trends 2000 and Trend Tracking (Warner Books) and publisher of the internationally circulated Trends Journal newsletter.
This webinar is scheduled for this Thursday, Feb 20, 2014 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM GMTand will be moderated by Mark O’Byrne, Head of Research at GoldCore.

2014 – Resumption Of The Of The Global Systemic Crisis’ « Normal » Path

The avalanche of liquidity from the Fed’s quantitative easing in 2013, allowed the world before’s tenets to wake up: indebtedness, bubbles, globalization, financialization… But all it took was a slight slowing down in the astronomical amounts injected by the US central bank every month for the rampant crisis, buried under these piles of liquidity, to reassert itself. As anticipated, the method of “resolving” the crisis by accentuating the excesses that caused it is ineffective, causing a crisis squared instead. All the same one can find an actual benefit: time is gained which everyone uses to their best advantage.
Throughout 2014, we will once again witness the global systemic crisis’ “normal” deployment, a phase of major transition between two global organization systems, a historic crisis that goes well beyond an economic-financial crisis, which we begin to see clearly. That’s why alongside the serious dangers to the stock exchanges, banks, real estate and, more generally, the economy, the agenda also includes the expansion of people’s anger and the rejection of current political systems, the worsening of geopolitical tensions and blocs withdrawing back in on themselves.
The timing belt of this renewal of the crisis is primarily driven by tapering (the reduction of the Fed’s QE programme) which, as we know, has immediately led to the tremors in emerging currencies. Beyond the negative impact that that has on the global economy, our team anticipates that these shocks will cause a boomerang effect on the US and finally unleash the chain of events of the Dollar’s massive devaluation, destabilizing everything that remains of the old system of which it’s the cornerstone.
Layout of the full article:
1. TAPER’S MISCALCULATION
2. THE END OF THE TENETS OF THE PAST
3. BREAK THE BANK?
4. PEOPLES’ ANGER
This public announcement contains an excerpt of section 1.

TAPER’S MISCALCULATION

A number of realities hide behind the Fed’s decision to progressively reduce its quantitative easing programme (1).
At the first is obviously it’s ineffectiveness as regards the real economy and especially the growing risks that it’s running in creating various bubbles and addictions and distorting any ability to understand reality. The second, without doubt, is the clinging to the desire to “show” that the situation is improving and that the Fed can pull out without risk. The third is less exemplary: aware of the emerging countries’ addiction to Fed liquidity created in 2013, its announcement couldn’t fail to trip them up. They now make headlines in the financial press, whilst the US situation has moved into the background. In fact, who remembers that Puerto Rico is in the process of exploding (2) (as anticipated in the GEAB n°77)? Or that Chicago can’t pay its debts (3), or that food stamps, the cornerstone of US Social Security, continue to be cut back (4) whilst an increasing number of households depend on them? Or finally that child poverty has reached levels which are difficult to imagine for a so-called developed country (5)?
2017 expiry Puerto Rican bond prices. Source : ZeroHedge.
2017 expiry Puerto Rican bond prices. Source : ZeroHedge.


However – with apologies for this easy re-run of a well-known advert – there is a second KissCool effect. To see it, we must distance ourselves and get back to basics at the risk of simplifying a global situation which currently no one really understands.
The Fed’s quantitative easing has resulted in a glut of liquidity in financial markets which have gone on to invest this money where true productive dynamics provide investment and fruitful opportunities: in the emerging countries. Obviously, this flood of easy money has artificially supported growth in these countries, which should have been lower in this time of crisis. Even worse, in 2013, it caused a revival of the world before’s tenets, a world in which money is only used to borrow more money, with a programme of re-financialization, more indebtedness, more Dollar addiction, the planet’s re-entanglement and further unbridled globalization without taking people’s interests into account (for example, providing a lifeline to the tedious negotiations over the trans-Pacific TPP and transatlantic TTIP free trade treaties), etc.
This soaking-up of Dollars by the only countries having sufficient growth to be able to use them explains, to a great extent, the lack of any Dollar devaluation or inflation in the US notwithstanding the Fed’s policy: the devaluation which should have gone hand-in-hand with such money creation has been absorbed by the rest of the planet’s economic dynamism.
But something has made the Fed no longer able to continue. Probably the fact that to have such an impact on the US economy, the quantity of money creation would have to constantly increase, which an increasingly number of people even in Federal Reserve circles were balking at doing. Staying at the same $85 billion a month level already corresponded in fact to a slowdown. In this case, better retreating and trying to escape from the trap.
Since the beginning of January the Fed has reduced its purchases by $10 billion a month, and by a further $10 billion a month from the beginning of February, to monthly purchases of $30 billion in mortgages and $35 billion in Treasury bonds currently. However, this decline in support means that a quarter of the indirect “aid” to emerging countries has gone… Therefore, it’s logical that there is a fall in economic activity in these countries and, consequently, their currencies (6).
Turkish Lire per US Dollar (USD/TRY), November 2012 – February 2014. Source: Yahoo Finance.
Turkish Lire per US Dollar (USD/TRY), November 2012 – February 2014. Source: Yahoo Finance.


This is where the boomerang effect begins. First, Western investments in emerging economies are worth less since the currency is devalued; therefore, a portion of investors’ assets have well and truly disappeared, causing severe stress in financial markets. But, more importantly, to halt the decline of their currency, emerging countries’ central banks are selling their dollar reserves to buy back their own currency on the markets (7), resulting in a surplus of dollars and an increase in demand for the local currency, causing it to rise automatically (8). For example, in such a period Turkey, India, Brazil and Indonesia among others, have each offloaded in the order of tens of billions of Dollars per month (9).
This means that Dollar buyers, the emerging countries, have become sellers. In other words, the only countries able to absorb excess Dollars are now refusing them. Let’s recapitulate: the Fed and the Treasury continue to flood the world with $65 billion a month, but no one wants them… Where can they dump them now? In a few oil producing countries which still sell in Dollars, but especially in the US of course. And what can this country’s lifeless economy do with them? Not a lot… certainly less than the emerging countries did (10).
[...]
———-
Notes :
1 Source: Reuters (29/01/2014).
2 Sources: Reuters (07/02/2014), CNBC (07/02/2014).
3 Source: « Chicago is on the road to Detroit », Chicago Tribune (05/02/2014).
4 Measure adopted discretly together with the posted success of agricultural subsidy reforms. Source : New York Times, 05/02/2014.
5 Source: Washington Informer, 08/02/2014.
6 Our team considers that for once emerging countries’ exchange rates are not related to moves in the Dollar, but economic reality.
7 A currency which they had to sell en masse, especially in 2013, to deal with the Dollar’s de facto devaluation which caused other currencies to rise and risked slowing down exports.
8 The Dollar itself isn’t falling immediately because the slight devaluation which should have taken place is, first, diluted by the amount of dollars in circulation and, second, offset by the fact that the Dollar is usually considered as a safe-haven currency against currencies which are reeling.
9 Sources: CentralBanking.com (« Central Bank of Turkey sells $2.5bn in one day », 23/01/2014), Vox (« Brazil’s central bank has intervened heavily, spending more than $50 billion and promising to double that by the end of the year », 25/09/2013), etc.
10 Somewhat indiscriminately, we must admit.
 
Dimanche 16 Février 2014
LEAP/E2020
Lu 1897 fois
 
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