Friday, February 15, 2013

Global GDP Bomb Explodes: Japan Q4 GDP Disappoints, German, French GDP Contract By More Than Expected, Italian GDP Fell By 0.9%, Eurozone GDP Contracts 0.6% Numbers out of Greece and Portugal Are Also Awful, Futures Slump As Global Q4 GDPs Dump!!!



Japan Refuses To Exit Triple-Dip Recession As Q4 GDP Disappoints Expectations Of A Positive Print

Despite so much pent up hope that Japan would post a 0.4% annualized growth (and a 0.1% rise Q/Q) in its Q4 GDP, finally exiting that pesky triple dip recession it has been stuck in for the past five years, moments ago the Cabinet Office reported that contrary to optimistic expectations, in the 4th quarter the economy again contracted for the third straight quarter, this time by 0.4% annualized, and 0.1% on a Q/Q basis. This was driven by a whopping 14% SAAR implosion in exports, which should not come as a surprise to those who have been tracking the ongoing destruction of Japan’s trade balance (and current account surplus). “Japan’s economy may show some weakness for the time being. But it is likely to resume a moderate recovery thereafter due to the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing, the effect of an emergency economic package, as well as an expected moderate recovery in the global economy,” Economics Minister Akira Amari said in a statement. True: there is hope. And there is the reality that all the BOJ is doing is desperately trying to offset the loss of the Chinese export market, which courtesy of the ever escalating foreign relations snafu involving a few islands close to a massive gas field, remains as shut as ever. And as long as China refuses to assist Japan in its trade and current account deficit predicament, Amari can hope, and hope, and hope.

Markets Have Turned South After GDP Bombs Everywhere

The story of the day is: Weak GDP numbers everywhere.

It started in Japan, where GDP came in at -0.1%, vs expectations of 0.1% growth.
Meanwhile, GDP numbers across Europe are lower as well.
Specifically, Germany saw economic contraction of 0.6%, while France saw contraction of 0.3% in Q4, according to MarketWatch.
Italian GDP fell by 0.9%, also worse than expected.
Eurozone GDP fell 0.6% vs. expectations of a 0.4% decline.
Numbers out of Greece and Portugal are also awful.
Greek GDP Still Showing Awful Declines
image
Greek GDP
MISS: Eurozone GDP Contracts 0.6%
Another GDP miss, which is a theme around the world today.
Eurozone Q4 GDP has fallen by 0.6%. Expectations were for a decline of 0.4%.
eurozone GDP
Eurostat
Euro zone seen dropping deeper into recession as Germany slips

German, French GDP contract by more than expected

MADRID (MarketWatch) — German and French economic growth contracted by more than economists had expected in the fourth quarter, according to official data released on Thursday. German gross domestic product fell by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2012 on a seasonally adjusted basis, after growth of 0.2% in the prior quarter. Economists polled by FactSet Research were expecting a a fall of 0.5%. In France, meanwhile, GDP fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter from a prior 0.1% climb in the third quarter. Economists had been forecasting a drop of 0.2%.

Futures Slump As Global Q4 GDPs Dump

It started overnight in Japan, where Q4 GDP posted a surprising and disappointing 3rd quarter of declines, then quickly spread to France, whose Q4 GDP declined -0.3% Q/Q missing expectations of a -0.2% drop, down from a +0.1% increase, then Germany, whose GDP also missed expectations of a -0.5% drop, declining from a +0.2% increase to a -0.6% drop, then on to Italy (-0.9% vs Exp. -0.6%, last -0.2%), Portugal (-1.8%, Exp. -1.0%, last -0.9%), Greece (down -6.0%, previously -6.7%), Hungary (-0.9%, Exp. -0.3%), Austria (-0.2%, down from 0.1%), Cyprus (-3.1%, last -2.0%), and so on.

….


FTSE 100 /quotes/zigman/3173262 6,330 -29 0.46% 
DAX /quotes/zigman/2380246 7,639 -73 0.95% 
CAC 40 /quotes/zigman/3173214 3,682 -17 0.45% 
FTSE MIB /quotes/zigman/1482176 16,565 -144 0.86% 
IBEX 35 /quotes/zigman/2759620 8,195 -110 1.33% 
Stoxx 600 /quotes/zigman/2380150 288 -0 0.09%
http://www.marketwatch.com/#

Investors await weekly jobless claims, with sentiment hurt by weak growth data out of Europe and continued worries about a currency war. |

Losses accelerated for U.S. stock index futures on Thursday ahead of weekly jobless claims, with sentiment hurt by weak growth data out of Europe and continued worries over a so-called currency war.
Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (CBE:DJH3) fell 67 points, or 0.5%, to 13,891, while those for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index (GLC:SPH3) fell 5.7 points, or 0.4%, to 1,511.50.
Futures for the Nasdaq 100 index (CME:NDH3) fell 11.5 points, or 0.4%, to 2,758.75.
Euro falling too

This Chart Really Drives Home How Disastrous Eurozone GDP Trend Is Getting

Eurozone GDP
Philippe Waechter, Twitter

Nowhere to go but down?

After a sharp New Year’s run-up, major U.S. stock indexes have stalled at significant resistance levels and multiple fundamental and technical indicators suggest that perhaps there is now nowhere for equities to go but down.
Over the last couple of weeks, we’ve all read a steady stream of overly-bullish headlines and listened to media commentators celebrating Dow 14,000 and the possibility of a new, eternal bull market. However, overhyped headlines and a series of fundamental and technical factors point to the possibility that, as usual, such enthusiasm tends to mark market tops rather than bottoms.
Starting with technical indicators, a chart of the S&P 500 dating back to 1998 demonstrates how the index has established a triple-top over the period from 1998 through the present. This is an enormous resistance level and one that will need to be convincingly broken before one can declare eternal life for the bulls.


Dow futures. . .-71.00
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
Dollar Index 80.550
http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_DX&t=l&a=0&w=5&v=s

I always love this video at times like this. . .


More Americans leaving U.S. over taxes

As Americans face higher taxes and stricter enforcement, a growing number of them are, indeed, deciding to turn in their US passports. As of 2013, 77% of Americans will pay higher federal tax rates because the cuts in Social Security payroll taxes expired when Congress passed its tax package on New Year’s Day. 

But the wealthiest households face the highest tax increases. From 2009 to 2011, the number of expatriates, or those who renounced their U.S. citizenship, doubled to 1,781. 
 
Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, which provides financial services for expatriates, said that since the start of this year, 48% more of his clients in January than in a typical month inquired about moving funds abroad and the possible tax implications of changing citizenship.

The income tax rate rose this year to 39.6% from 35% for individuals earning more than $400,000 a year and married couples earning more than $450,000. 

The Tax Policy Center estimated that those who earn more than $1 million would pay an average of  $170,341 more in taxes.

Green said there’s a tipping point for most people with regard to tax issues affecting their choice of location and citizenship. “If there’s only 10% tax [on income], no one would be leaving. But if there’s 90%, then most people would leave,” he said. 

Federal taxes aren’t the only issue, though. Increases in state income tax rates factor into these decisions as well. Recently, California enacted Proposition 30, which raised state income tax rates to 10.3% from 9.3% for individuals making at least $250,000 and 13.3% from 10.3% for those earning at least $1 million. Golfer Phil Mickelson publicly voiced his concern over the tax increases and threatened to leave California because of the higher rates. 

Famous Faces 
In the first three quarters of 2012, more than 1,100 people left the United States, according to the Federal Register, which tracks Americans who renounce their citizenship. (The Federal Register doesn’t make note of why these people give up their citizenships; we can only guess there are financial considerations in many situations.) Among them, one of the most high-profile examples was Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin, who filed to relinquish his U.S. citizenship in September 2011; Facebook had its initial public offering in May 2012. Saverin, a Brazil native, had already been living in Singapore for three years after emigrating to the U.S. in 1998. He could reportedly save as much as $100 million in taxes because Singapore does not tax capital gains. 

Saverin isn’t the only famous renunciation. Singer and socialite Denise Rich also gave up her citizenship last year under her maiden name, Denise Eisenberg. She is well-known as the ex-wife of former international fugitive Marc Rich, a commodities trader who was indicted on 50 counts of wire fraud, tax evasion, racketeering and other charges. But on his last day in office in 2001, former president Bill Clinton pardoned Rich. Reports claimed that Eisenberg gave up her citizenship to be closer to her long-time partner, an Austrian citizen. Austria also has tax benefits for nationals who live abroad for more than half the year.

Chinese kung fu star and actor Jet Li held American and Chinese citizenships, but dropped both in 2009 in order to be a citizen in Singapore. (Singapore prohibits dual citizenship.) In interviews Li indicated that he chose Singapore because it was free from paparazzi and provided language opportunities for his children. 

Most recently, actor Gerard Depardieu made headlines for renouncing his French citizenship to become a Russian citizen in order to avoid France’s proposed 75% tax on earned income above $1.4 million. Russia has a flat 13% tax rate.

why EVERY copper penny is now worth at least 5 cents

Keynesian Economic Dream Playing Out in Argentina

Redmond Weissenberger, Contributor
Activist Post

If uber-Keynesian and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman wants to find paradise, he should journey down to Argentina. Immediately following the International Monetary Fund's censure over fudging its economic data, the government has frozen prices on every item in the nation's supermarkets. This just begs the question of why the Argentinean government needs to lie about its economic statistics. The answer is simple really. Like any state, it wants to paint itself in the best light by presenting a Potemkin village of happy citizens and a booming economy. In reality, the people in Argentina are suffering under a brutal bout of inflation. Private economists estimate the inflation rate has reached 30% - the very definition of hyperinflation.



Try as they might to deny it, this is the Keynesian wet dream playing out in living color. 

To finance government spending, the Central Bank of Argentina has been putting the pedal to the metal of his its printing press. Under Keynesian theory, the economy should be taking off like Bill Clinton alone with a White House intern. Instead, there is panic in supermarkets as people are trying to ditch the peso in favor of, well, just about anything.


This is not the first time Argentina has wrecked its economy. In fact, it's the fourth time in forty years. President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has merely adopted the tried-and-true method of using increased government intervention to undo the mistakes of previous policy. Critics have called her administration corrupt, deceptive, and eager to assist big business with favorable regulations. In other words, she is pulling the reigns of government as any other president would. The only difference is that Kirchner has managed to destroy a national currency faster than the rest of the developed world.

But don't count the United States out of the global race toward monetary self-destruction just yet. With over a trillion dollars floating around the banking system and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke intent on eroding even more of the greenback's value to boost the economy, there is no telling when the whole convoluted scheme will blow up in his face.

We are already in "uncharted territory" according to Julia Coronado, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas. The day of reckoning for the US dollar could come any day now.

Americans should start looking at Argentina as a sign of what's to come rather than a possible vacation destination. And they should start looking at gold as a safe haven instead of their bank accounts.

Redmond Weissenberger is the Managing Editor of The Dollar Vigilante and the Founding Director of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada, the centre for the study of the Austrian School of Economics within Canada.

Redmond founded the LvMIC in 2010 to address the lack of knowledge about the true cause of our booms and busts of the last 100 years and the need for sound money and sound economics to be applied to the Canadian and global economy
.

French jobless man dies of self-immolation in Nantes

State employment agency in Paris, France. (file photo)
State employment agency in Paris, France. (file photo)
Wed Feb 13, 2013 4:42PM GMT
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A jobless French man has died after setting himself on fire in front of the state employment agency in the western city of Nantes, police officials said.


The man, who suffered from financial problems, died on Wednesday after being told he was ineligible for unemployment benefits.

Reports say that the man had informed the journalists of his decision, warning he would set himself on fire this week.

In August, another jobless man, aged 51, also died of self-immolation in the French capital of Paris.

The number of jobless people in France has risen for the past 20 months, with economic analysts believing the rate would soon reach the record high set in 1997 of 3.2 million.

In December 2012, Government official unemployment figures showed that 3.13 million people were registered in the country’s jobless program in November, a rise of 29,300 compared to October.

The French unemployment rate has increased since President Francois Hollande took office in May 2012, despite his promises to create 100,000 new jobs per year.

Europe plunged into a financial crisis in early 2008. The worsening debt crisis has forced EU governments to adopt harsh austerity measures and tough economic reforms, which have triggered incidents of social unrest and massive protests in many European countries.

SAB/JR

The Libor Scandal: Adding Up a Scorecard of Shame

The internal culture at some of the world’s biggest banks, the “moral bankruptcy” among some London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) traders and the scandal-tinged settlements with regulators are starting to seem like ordinary matters, according to a scathing commentary by The Economist.

For those keeping track, experts believe Deutsche Bank may be next to go through the Libor wringer, and reportedly could be fined billions, while yet more big banks may also have their spot reserved in the lineup of suspects.

“There is now a sense of routine about these settlements: the early leaks, the embarrassing e-mails, the big fines. They can make Libor seem like just another problem for the banks to manage,” The Economist wrote.

Declassified: 
‘Financial War’ Could Wipe Out 50% of Your Wealth’

According to Spiegel, the rate-rigging scandal around the Libor could be extremely expensive for Deutsche Bank, and the bank’s co-CEO, Anshu Jain, could be dragged into the affair.

Spiegel reported the “costs for the Frankfurt-based bank could add up to billions of euros. The EU Commission has filed several antitrust suits against Libor banks, and a large number of investors are suing for damages — with more possible lawsuits looming in the future.”

Major banks implicated in the Libor affair are now talking about an industrywide settlement, similar to the one that was concluded with the U.S. tobacco industry in the late 1990s, the German magazine said.

Bloomberg reported Deutsche Bank’s Jain as saying bank CEOs actually discussed a global settlement of the matter at the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Thus far, according to The Economist, the scorecard of banks settling with regulators and their fines reads: Royal Bank of Scotland, $475 million to U.S. regulators and $137 million to British regulators; UBS, a total of $1.5 billion; and Barclays, approximately $458 million.

The Economist commented that the “moral bankruptcy of traders implicated in the rigging of (Libor), one of the world’s most important interest rates, is matched only by the incompetence with which they covered their tracks.”

On Friday, Reuters said unnamed sources close to the probe identified Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and U.K. interdealer broker ICAP as among those soon to face the regulatory spotlight. Five Deutsche Bank executives were suspended last week in the matter, according to various media accounts.

Voluminous emails and computer message exchanges collected by regulators allege traders colluded for years with peers at other banks and brokers to rig Japanese, Swiss and U.S.-denominated Libor, a benchmark used to price some $500 trillion worth of contracts from derivatives to credit cards, according to Reuters.

The Economist suggested the scandal may ultimately force bank bosses to pay more attention to compliance and culture.

“A lot of the bank CEOs I talk with don’t worry that regulatory change could shut them down,” said Ted Moynihan of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. “But they see the conduct issue as potentially existential.”

Declassified: ‘Financial War’ Could Wipe Out 50% of Your Wealth’

© 2013 Moneynews. All rights reserved.

McGraw-Hill expects to beat lawsuit over S&P ratings

WASHINGTON Standard & Poor's is prepared to spend years beating back a federal lawsuit that accuses the company of giving falsely high ratings to mortgage investments that helped trigger the financial crisis, executives said Tuesday.
"Rest assured, we will vigorously defend against these erroneous claims," said Harold McGraw III, president and CEO of The McGraw-Hill (MHP), which owns S&P, on a call with analysts.

The government may seek up to $5 billion - several years' worth of profits for McGraw-Hill, it said in a civil complaint filed in Los Angeles federal court last week. The company believes the charges lack merit, but the case is likely to drag on for three or more years, general counsel Ken Vittor said on the call.
The call was scheduled in connection with McGraw-Hill's fourth-quarter earnings report, but executives spent much of it refuting the government's allegations. CEO McGraw and the company's top financial executive shortened their remarks to leave time for the legal discussion.
McGraw-Hill swung to a loss in the three months ended Dec. 31 as its transition to a financial information provider forced it to take a big, one-time charge. Excluding one-time items, the company's net income declined but narrowly beat Wall Street's forecasts.
Despite what McGraw called "an outstanding year," analysts on the call focused on the company's ability to fend off the lawsuit and maintain growth in the Standard & Poor's Rating Services division.
Executives said they expect the credit rating business to keep growing despite the new scrutiny. Low interest rates are making it easier for companies to issue bonds. Demand for ratings is spiking from emerging markets like India, they said.
Standard & Poor's Ratings is crucial to McGraw-Hill's bottom line. The rating business contributed 70 percent of McGraw-Hill's operating profit and 46 percent of its revenue from continuing operations in 2012. The company is shedding non-financial businesses like its textbook publisher.
The Justice Department accused S&P of knowingly inflating its ratings because it wanted to earn more business from its clients - the banks whose investments it was hired to rate.
According to the lawsuit, S&P recognized in 2006 that home prices were sinking and that borrowers were having trouble repaying loans. Yet these facts weren't reflected in the safe ratings S&P gave to complex real-estate investments known as mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, the lawsuit alleges.
High ratings from the three agencies made it possible for banks to sell trillions in risky investments. Some investors, including pension funds, can buy only securities that carry high credit ratings.
The charges are the Obama administration's most aggressive action to date against those deemed responsible for contributing to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. They follow years of criticism that the government had failed to do enough.
Vittor, the general counsel, cast doubt Tuesday on the government's ability to prove its case. Responding to a question about why S&P was singled out among the big three rating agencies, he said, "For us, the question is less the 'why' than the 'how': How will the Department of Justice prove a fraud claim against S&P's analysts for arriving at ratings through a committee process that are identical to the ratings issued independently by other rating agencies?"
It is not clear why the government charged only S&P, or whether it will file charges against Fitch and Moody's, S&P's two main rivals.
Responding to the charges Tuesday, executives noted that they have successfully defended against 40 other financial crisis-related lawsuits. They said they are open to "discussing reasonable settlements" to end this or any other lawsuit.
S&P declined to say how much the case is costing. Chief Financial Officer Jack Callahan said "it's not an insignificant item in our income statement right now." He said the company understands the cost may increase in 2013. That expectation is reflected in its earnings guidance.
The company introduced 2013 revenue guidance of "high single-digit growth," suggesting that revenue this year could fall between $4.76 billion and $4.85 billion. It expects adjusted earnings per share this year of $3.10 to $3.20.
The McGraw-Hill Cos., based in New York, lost $216 million, or 76 cents per share, in the three months ended Dec. 31. That compares with net income of $214 million, or 73 cents per share, a year earlier.
The loss was driven by a $497 million charge McGraw-Hill took on the pending sale of its education division. McGraw-Hill said in November that it will sell the textbook and e-learning publisher for $2.5 billion in cash and debt. As part of the deal, McGraw-Hill will be renamed McGraw Hill Financial.
The charge, which had been announced previously, was related to inventory, previous investments and goodwill in the textbook publishing group.
Excluding one-time items, the company's adjusted net income was $214 million, or 75 cents per share, compared with $263 million, or 90 cents per share, a year earlier.
Analysts surveyed by FactSet had expected, on average, adjusted earnings of 69 cents per share.
Revenue from continuing operations rose to $1.23 billion from $1 billion a year earlier. Both figures exclude revenue generated by the education division that is being spun off, a company spokeswoman said. Total revenue in the quarter was $1.68 billion, she said.
Analysts had expected revenue of $1.53 billion. The McGraw-Hill spokeswoman said the estimates were based on total revenue, including the education division. On that basis, revenue in the quarter was 10 percent above Wall Street forecasts.
For 2012, McGraw-Hill earned net income of $437 million on revenue of $4.45 billion.
McGraw-Hill shares rose 12 cents to $44.40 as of 12:15 p.m. Eastern time. They remain near a recent low, having traded between $42.02 and $58.62 over the past 52 weeks.
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