Sunday, August 21, 2011

40 Years of Fiat Currency, Is Gold as ‘Cheap’ as it was in 1971?

Monday was the 40th anniversary of the irredeemable fiat dollar. Unlike the preceding 39 anniversaries, this one was actually noticed! Here, I present several charts that show the changes to the Fed’s balance sheet since 1971. I conclude that the current gold price may be as ‘cheap’ as it was in 1971!

To review what happened just over 40 years ago, I quote from Murray Rothbard’s fantastic little book, What Has Government Done to Our Money?:
On August 15, 1971, at the same time that President Nixon imposed a price-wage freeze in a vain attempt to check bounding inflation, Mr. Nixon also brought the post-war Bretton Woods system to a crashing end. As European Central Banks at last threatened to redeem much of their swollen stock of dollars for gold, President Nixon went totally off gold. For the first time in American history, the dollar was totally fiat, totally without backing in gold. Even the tenuous link with gold maintained since 1933 was now severed. The world was plunged into the fiat system of the thirties—and worse, since now even the dollar was no longer linked to gold. Ahead loomed the dread spectre of currency blocs, competing devaluations, economic warfare, and the breakdown of international trade and investment, with the worldwide depression that would then ensue.
For anyone who’s interested, here’s the video of Nixon’s announcement:

The Charts:

Federal Reserve's Assets Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement Source: St Louis Fed
As can be seen on the chart above, the Fed’s assets have exploded since the collapse of the Bretton Woods agreement. Until 2007, the expansion was mainly in favor of US government securities. The period from 2007 to 2010 brought about a large increase in the quantity of ‘other assets’ (mainly Mortgage-backed Securities and other junk). With the most recent quantitative easing program (QE2), the Fed’s assets are reverting back in favor of Long-term US Government Securities.

Federal Reserve's Liabilities Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement. Source: St Louis Fed
Of course, we can see precisely the same explosion in the Fed’s liabilities. Until 2007, this expansion was largely in favor of Federal Reserve Notes. Since 2007, the increase in the Fed’s liabilities has been in favor of Reserve Deposits. This was the real bailout of the banks. If one takes a moment to contemplate this, one realizes that all dollar holders (Worldwide!) took an enormous implicit haircut to preserve the status quo of the American Banking System!!!

Federal Reserve's Assets Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement (Proportional Basis) . Source: St Louis Fed
The chart above shows the Fed’s assets on a proportional basis. ‘Gold Reserves’ as a proportion of the total balance sheet have been declining ever since the collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement. Currently, ‘Gold Reserves’ seem negligible (this is partly due to the Fed’s funky accounting). It is clear that there have been some periods where large changes were made to the composition of the Fed’s assets, however it is equally clear that such changes pale in comparison to the drastic alterations seen over the past 3-5 years.

Federal Reserve's Liabilities Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement (Proportional Basis) . Source: St Louis Fed
Again, the sheer size of the bank bailout is evident from the chart above. After declining proportionally for 35 years, ‘Reserve Deposits’ exploded in 2007/2008. The declining proportion of ‘Reserve deposits’ shows the progressively greater doses of leverage used in the American banking system. The recent explosion in ‘Reserve deposits’ demonstrates the enormity of the bailout! The low in the light blue portion on the chart above was the peak in excitement about banking. The current peak represents the banking industry’s march towards boredom.
[NOTE: The following charts are available on the 'Long-Term Charts' page (where they go back to 1915). They are updated every week.]

Total Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement - Click to enlarge. Source: St Louis Fed
Since August 11, 1971, the Federal Reserve’s total balance sheet size has expanded from $88’711 million to $2’876’236 million (over 32 times!).

Total Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement (Log Scale) - Click to enlarge. Source: St Louis Fed
Same data on a logarithmic scale.

Market Value of the Federal Reserve's Gold Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement - Click to enlarge. Source: St Louis Fed
Since August 11, 1971, the market value of the Federal Reserve’s gold has increased from $12’050 million to $463’229 million.

Gold Covering or Backing the Gold Since the Collapse of the Bretton Woods Agreement - Click to enlarge. Source: St Louis Fed
Using the data just mentioned above, we might conclude that the ‘degree to which the dollar is backed by gold’ (at market prices) hasn’t changed very much. On August 11, 1971, the dollar was 13.6% ’backed by gold’ and now the dollar is 16.1% ‘backed by gold’! This begs the rather startling question; is gold roughly as cheap as it was in 1971? Was the early part of the mid-20th century gold bull market covered up by the semantics of governmental meddling with money?
Aftab Singh is an independent analyst. He writes about markets & political economy at http://greshams-law.com .
© 2011 Copyright Aftab Singh - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


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As America Crumbles Greedy bankster Leon D. Black throws himself multimillion dollar birthday party

Birthdays Are Still Big in Buyout Land

Leon D. Black, managing partner of Apollo Global Management.Fred Prouser/ReutersThe billionaire financier Leon D. Black celebrated his 60th birthday with some 200 people, who were treated to a show by Elton John, below.
Elton JohnMike Coppola/Getty Images 
When the billionaire buyout titan Stephen A. Schwarzman gave himself a boom-era-defining 60th birthday party in 2007, the global economy was soaring.
Four years and one financial crisis later, the world looks very different. But not much has changed in the private equity world — at least when it comes to birthday parties.
Last Saturday night, the financier Leon D. Black celebrated his 60th with a blowout at his oceanfront estate in Southampton, on Long Island. After a buffet dinner featuring a seared foie gras station, some 200 guests took in a show by Elton John. The pop music legend, who closed with “Crocodile Rock,” was paid at least $1 million for the hour-and-a-half performance.
“The great Sir Elton John performing at my friend Leon Black’s fabulous 60th bday,” wrote the fashion designer Vera Wang on her Facebook page. “I had the honor of dressing his wife, my friend, Debra Black, the hostess! If there was ever a great family … this was it! Xx Vera”
The stars of music and fashion collided with a who’s who of Wall Street. Revelers included Michael R. Milken, the junk-bond pioneer and Mr. Black’s boss at Drexel Burnham Lambert in the 1980s; Julian H. Robertson Jr. , the hedge fund investor; Lloyd C. Blankfein, the chief executive of Goldman Sachs; and Mr. Schwarzman, head of the Blackstone Group.
Rounding out the guest list were politicians including Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg and Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York, who rubbed elbows with media celebrities like Martha Stewart and Howard Stern.

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/08/18/birthdays-are-still-big-in-buyout-land/?ref=business

Capitalism Is The Crisis: Radical Politics in the Age of Austerity

In a September 20, 1912 article in the New York Times titled “The Age of the Superlative,” a writer admired the fact that a French aviator had achieved an altitude of 18,635 feet and that the new Equitable Life Insurance building, erected on the spot where the old one had just burned down, “is sure to be the biggest in the world.” Nothing could be done about the vast amounts of wealth dedicated to breaking such records. “We know well that there are better kinds of glory,” the writer soberly concluded, “but the age of the superlative must take its course.”

We live in an age of the superlatives as well, ironically being touted as the Age of Austerity by the state-capitalist oligarchs. But the superlative qualities of our age mark a world in decline. Consider some of our superlative achievements:
  • Scientists have renamed this era the Anthropocene, to denote the unprecedented impact humans are having on the planet, an impact that is driving the sixth mass extinction in the history of the planet.

  • The US financial “crisis” of 2008 was the largest private sector theft of public money in history, an estimated $16 trillion, followed by an aggressive global “austerity” push that targets the poor, the middle class, and people of colour to pay for the systemic fraud that caused the crisis.

  • The US income disparity gap between rich and poor is the greatest of any industrialized country.

  • For the first time in US history, student debt exceeds consumer debt. Never has a young generation of Americans seen this much debt, and consequently they await a life of serfdom in the capitalist order.

  • The global 2011 Billionaires List recorded a record number of billionaires and combined wealth.

  • There are more slaves today than at any time in human history.

  • Worldwide military spending reached a record high in 2011.
And those are just a few records.

Notice a trend?

The world is dying, and capitalists are making record profits as it dies. There are more slaves and billionaires than ever before. The military-industrial complex is the largest it has ever been.

In this context, poor and working people have been asked—well, told—to reduce their expectations for the future and for their quality of life in the present. The word of the year for 2010 was “austerity.”

The systemic fraud of 2008—a comma in the run-on sentence of capitalist exploitation—for which the poor are being asked to pony-up was not some hiccup in the benevolent functioning of capitalism: it was fraud, in an economic system predicated on fraud and massive exploitation. They stole trillions from the global poor, in particular from racialized people in the US. Now they want us to pay for their crisis.

I decided to make a documentary film about austerity, about a year and half ago, because I was perplexed by the absence of a mass rebellion against capitalism in North America, especially in the aftermath of 2008, and because I believe if we don’t stop the austerity agenda we will collectively be

That may sound like hyperbole, but consider the trends in the statistics above and the near-complete control corporatism has over the existing political institutions.

In the US, several states have begun to repeal workers’ rights (or what’s left of them) and pass laws allowing state governments to default on state pension plans, plans already made venerable by their investments in the same marketplace now trying to destroy them.

President Obama, hailed by some liberals as the progenitor of change, has continued the same policies of economic and military imperialism as his predecessor. His top advisers upon taking office were a collection of silk-suited thugs from the very same investment-banking coterie that pulled off the heist in 2008.

One of the objectives of the capitalist Age of Austerity is to break what remains (and that’s not saying much) of organized labour, most of which exists in public sector unions. In Canada, Harper’s hostile treatment of the postal workers’ union indicates an embrace of the austerity agenda: workers’ rights, such as they are, will not be respected. Recent layoffs at Environment Canada, and the regressive agenda of Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, suggest a massive evisceration of public services in Canada is on its way. Some union heads estimate as many as 30,000 civil servants may be axed.

The bankers and finance capitalists caused the crisis. Now public services such as education, health care, environmental protections, and essential infrastructure are going to pay for it. Unless, of course, we fight back.

I asked academics, activists and authors to define “austerity” and to suggest how we might fight back. The result is Capitalism Is The Crisis: Radical Politics in the Age of Austerity, a feature documentary that examines the nature of capitalist crisis, and some of the places where people have confronted capitalism including Greece, the G20 summit protest in Toronto, and the exhibition of mass solidarity in Madison, Wisconsin.

In the film, Chris Hedges (author of Death of the Liberal Class) and Derrick Jensen (author of Endgame) discuss the pathological character of capitalism. Hedges describes the BP executives as “executioners” at the helm of a system that will “kill most of us” if it is not stopped. I held a conversation with the unlikely pair back in July 2010, during the BP oil spill.

York University political scientists David McNally and Leo Panitch discuss the context for the current crisis of capitalism, which Panitch calls the “first great depression of the 21st century.” McNally suggests the Age of Austerity may last for “a generation.”

I talked to a variety of radicals. Michael Hardt, the Duke University professor who co-authored Empire, Multitude, and Commonwealth with Tony Negri, discusses an autonomist Marxist reading of the Great Depression and FDR. In some sense, we have to see ourselves as the crisis. We have to acknowledge that we have agency, that we can determine the outcome of this ongoing social war.
Max Haiven, a professor from Halifax, talks about the social ways in which debt narrows the radical imagination, leading to a mass forgetting of anti-capitalist movements of the past, and produces gestural and ineffective forms of resistance.

Ajamu Nangwaya, a graduate student at the University of Toronto and a former VP of CUPE Ontario, warns us not to be confused by the apparent resurgence of Keynesian economics in mainstream media discussions. The ruling class, he says, will do whatever it takes to preserve the system. The embrace of Keynesian economics by some capitalists is not an endorsement of socialism.

Queen’s University professor Richard J.F. Day talks about the long history of capitalist accumulation. He also comments on Harper’s probable agenda at the G20 summit crackdown.

I don’t want to give away the entire film here. Actually, I do (below). But I hope you will watch it and join the fight against austerity. This is not a fight that can be won through electoral politics. It requires a mass social movement, and it requires that capitalism be erased from the face of the earth forever.

Now is not the time to “restore the middle class,” the message from Big Labour; now is the time to restore human dignity and prevent the current crisis from being our last, by building an alternative to capitalism. We need a revolution, not a reformation.

It may be their crisis, but it’s our problem.


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Madoff Whistleblower: Big Banks Are Ripping Off Pension Funds

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Amid all the market volatility and weakness in the financial sector of late, you may have missed this WSJ front page story: "States Go After Big Bank on Forex".
The story is about growing scandal in the banking industry centered around banks allegedly overcharging pension funds for currency transactions.
"Attorneys general in Virginia and Florida filed civil suits against BNY Mellon alleging that the bank cheated pension funds in those states by choosing improper prices for currency trades the bank processed for the funds," The WSJ reports. "The Virginia lawsuit, filed in a Fairfax, Va., state court, cites internal bank emails allegedly showing that senior bank officials knew about, and endorsed, a currency-trading method that hurt state pensioners."
In addition to Virginia and Florida, California and Tennessee are also suing BNY Mellon and State Street Corp. over the alleged fraud.
The man who uncovered the alleged scam, Harry Markopolos, expects all 50 states to eventually join the suit. If the name sounds familiar that's because Markopolos was a whistleblower on the Madoff Ponzi scheme, only to have his claims ignored by the SEC for the better par of a decade. (See: Harry Markopolos Says Big Banks Worse Than Madoff)
In this case, Markopolos says BNY Mellon and State Street we're taking about "three tenths of a percent from every forex transaction for pension funds" by back-timing the trade to benefit banks at the detriment of their pension fund clients. "It's almost the exact same scheme as the market timing scandals of 2003," he claims.
When and if these cases go to trial is unknown, but Markopolos sure hopes to avoid a settlement. "I want to see them admit guilt," he tells Aaron Task in the accompanying interview. "If [banks] settle it feel like justice denied because they also will settle without admitting or denying guilt. That's just too easy. "

Golden Retrieval: Chavez wants his billion back

Roman shipwreck found in Albania

Archeologists found a Roman ship wreck with more than 300 amphoras onboard in Albania.
A team of Albanian and American archaeologists has found the remains of a Roman ship off the Karaburun Peninsula in Albania's southern coast.


Researchers discovered the 30 meter-long ship wreck at a depth of 50 meters and believe it to date back to a time between the second and first century BCE, BalkanInsight reported.

Experts say the find can reveal new facts about the ancient population of the southern Illyrian coast and its trade relations in the Mediterranean.

“The growing maritime evidence points toward an intense wine industry and associated heavy trade that developed in the 2nd century BCE and continued into the 1st century CE,” Dr. Jeff Royal of the RPM Nautical Foundation said in a statement.

“The heavy traffic of this commodity ran southward down the Eastern Adriatic route to the Vlora area before cutting over to Southern Italy and continuing into the West Mediterranean,” Royal added.

The vessel was found with more than 300 amphoras-a type of ceramic container- onboard.

The Albanian coast was part of an important trade route, receiving traffic from Greece, Italy, North Africa and the western Mediterranean.

“This discovery is important not only for the expedition but also for Albania's underwater archaeology,” said Dr. Adrian Anastasi of Albania's Institute of Archeology.

Financed by the RPM Nautical Foundation, the expedition has discovered 20 shipwrecks from ancient, medieval and modern times in the Albanian coast over the past five years.

TE/HGH

MOODY'S WHISTLEBLOWER BREAKS SILENCE: Says Ratings Agency Rotten To Core With Conflicts, Corruption And Greed


Last night we had word that the Justice Department is probing S&P over mortgage bond ratings, so perhaps we will now see a similar investigation into Moody's.
---
Business Inisder
By Henry Blodget
A former senior analyst at Moody's has gone public with his story of how one of the country's most important rating agencies is corrupted to the core.
The analyst, William J. Harrington, worked for Moody's for 11 years, from 1999 until his resignation last year.
From 2006 to 2010, Harrington was a Senior Vice President in the derivative products group, which was responsible for producing many of the disastrous ratings Moody's issued during the housing bubble.
Harrington has made his story public in the form of a 78-page "comment" to the SEC's proposed rules about rating agency reform, which he submitted to the agency on August 8th. The comment is a scathing indictment of Moody's processes, conflicts of interests, and management, and it will likely make Harrington a star witness at any future litigation or hearings on this topic.
The primary conflict of interest at Moody's is well known: The company is paid by the same "issuers" (banks and companies) whose securities it is supposed to objectively rate. This conflict pervades every aspect of Moody's operations, Harrington says. It incentivizes everyone at the company, including analysts, to give Moody's clients the ratings they want, lest the clients fire Moody's and take their business to other ratings agencies.
Moody's analysts whose conclusions prevent Moody's clients from getting what they want, Harrington says, are viewed as "impeding deals" and, thus, harming Moody's business. These analysts are often transferred, disciplined, "harassed," or fired.
In short, Harrington describes a culture of conflict that is so pervasive that it often renders Moody's ratings useless at best and harmful at worst.
Harrington believes the SEC's proposed rules will make the integrity of Moody's ratings worse, not better. He also believes that Moody's recent attempts to reform itself are nothing more than a pretty-looking PR campaign.
We've included highlights of Harrington's story below. Here are some key points:
  • Moody's ratings often do not reflect its analysts' private conclusions. Instead, rating committees privately conclude that certain securities deserve certain ratings--and then vote with management to give the securities the higher ratings that issuer clients want.
  • Moody's management and "compliance" officers do everything possible to make issuer clients happy--and they view analysts who do not do the same as "troublesome." Management employs a variety of tactics to transform these troublesome analysts into "pliant corporate citizens" who have Moody's best interests at heart.
  • Moody's product managers participate in--and vote on--ratings decisions. These product managers are the same people who are directly responsible for keeping clients happy and growing Moody's business.
  • At least one senior executive lied under oath at the hearings into rating agency conduct. Another executive, who Harrington says exemplified management's emphasis on giving issuers what they wanted, skipped the hearings altogether.
Harrington's story at times reads like score-settling: The constant conflicts and pressures at Moody's clearly grated on him, especially as it became ever clearer that his only incentive not to "cave" to an issuer's every demand was his own self-respect.
But Harrington's story also makes clear just how imperative it is that the ratings-agency problem be addressed and fixed. The current system, in which the government anoints organizations as deeply conflicted as Moody's with the power to determine sanctioned bond ratings is untenable. And the SEC's proposed rule changes won't fix a thing.
Harrington's story is startling, both in its allegations and specificity. (He names many Moody's executives and describes many instances that regulators and plaintiffs will probably want to take a closer look at.)
Given this, we expected Moody's might want to share its side of the story--or denounce Harrington as a disgruntled ex-employee. Instead, Moody's did not return multiple calls seeking comment.
Read the rest at BI, including the key excerpts from Harrington's testimony...