Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Stick a fork in Mr. and Mrs. Potato Head, they're Done.
Cash crunch may leave Michigan communities with choice of borrowing or defaulting
Cities and towns across Michigan have seen property-tax collections plunge as much as 20 percent in the past year, the steepest drop since a 1994 state tax rewrite, forcing scores of communities to choose by March whether to borrow to pay bills or risk default on bonds.
The municipalities rely on property taxes for as much as 60 percent of their revenue, according to the Michigan Municipal League. State support that typically composes another 20 percent to 35 percent of city budgets has been slashed by almost a third in the past year, during the longest recession since the 1930s.
The end of a three-year federal stimulus worth $3.1 billion to Michigan -- a sum roughly equal to two annual budgets for Detroit -- will force "fundamental decisions," according to a memorandum by the Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency.
"This gets real bad in about 90 to 150 days," said Robert Daddow, deputy executive of Oakland County, which is adjacent to Detroit's Wayne County and has a per-capita income 146.8 percent of the state average, according to Moody's Investors Service. "The question becomes whether they can secure enough cash from banks and whether banks are willing to lend in a credit-crunch situation."
Down, down, down
The value of taxable housing in Oakland County, which is home to the headquarters of Chrysler Group LLC, fell 11.8 percent this year, Moody's said in a Nov. 23 report. It will drop 10 percent further in 2011 and 5 percent more in 2012, Moody's said.
"Declining housing values and a growing unemployment rate within the county demonstrates the county's exposure to the challenges in this region," Moody's said.
State unemployment in October was 12.8 percent; it has been as high as 14.5 percent in December 2009 as the auto industry contracted.
The state in October trailed only California and Florida in its number of foreclosure filings, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based data firm. A total of 19,288 properties in the state, or one in 235 households, received a default or auction filing or were seized by banks last month, the company said. The rate was up 17 percent from a year earlier.
"It'll take us a decade or more for cities to be collecting what they were a decade earlier," Summer Minnick, director of state affairs for the Ann Arbor-based Municipal League, said in a telephone interview. Some municipalities have seen property-tax revenue drop by a fifth, she said. "Right now, we have several communities on the brink of severe problems."
At the edge
The recession has pushed many U.S. communities to the edge of Chapter 9 bankruptcy, or, in the case of Vallejo, California, into it. Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, averted a bond default only because the state accelerated an aid payment.
Under state law, Michigan has the final say on whether a municipality can enter bankruptcy. Detroit said in March it was considering moving toward a filing. Hamtramck, where General Motors manufactures the Chevrolet Volt, has also pressed state officials for a bankruptcy, saying that Detroit, which largely surrounds it, owes it money.
Southfield, an Oakland County city with what Moody's in 2008 called a "satisfactory financial position," anticipates $19.9 million from its general operating tax levy this fiscal year, a 16.7 percent drop from three years ago, when it budgeted for $23.9 million. Its administrator and treasurer asked the state Legislature in September for permission to sell $50 million in bonds to cover operational costs.
Emergency calls
Under a 1990 law, a Michigan governor can declare a financial emergency for a city and install a manager to run its business. Of the seven such declarations, four have occurred since December 2008.
"Hundreds of jurisdictions" in the state may face financial collapse in the next three to five years, Rick Snyder, Michigan's newly elected Republican governor, said Nov. 19.
Nationwide, the value of defaulted municipal securities fell to $2.48 billion through October, compared with $7.28 billion in 2009 and a record $8.15 billion in 2008, according to Richard Lehmann, publisher of Distressed Debt Securities Newsletter.
Lehmann told Bloomberg News on Nov. 23 there may be a "new wave" of defaults in 2011 as federal economic-stimulus aid declines and budget pressures mount.
Rich town, poor town
The number of local governments on Michigan's three-year- old financial watch list, which measures stresses by debt, tax collections, cash flow and population changes, totaled 68 in 2008, the most recent accounting.
Cities on the Michigan Department of Treasury's list include the industrial centers of Detroit, River Rouge, Jackson and Benton Harbor. Wealthier suburbs are also in danger, Minnick said.
"These are upscale suburban bedroom communities that had new homes and tremendous price spikes," Minnick said. "Some are communities you would not have expected."
The Michigan Legislature has cut revenue-sharing payments to localities by almost one-third in the past year and by $4 billion in the past 10 years, the Municipal League said.
The financial strain on cities is compounded by voter-approved constitutional limits on the growth of property taxes, which restrain annual increases to 5 percent or the rate of inflation, whichever is less.
Holding the bag
Falling property-tax collections will create gaps starting next year in the "hundreds of millions of dollars" for cities and townships, said Eric Scorsone, senior economist for the Michigan Senate Fiscal Agency.
Michigan counties reimburse local governments for unpaid property taxes and charge fees and interest as the county attempts to collect delinquent amounts for three years, Scorsone said. If the county cannot collect, the city or township can be billed for the uncollectable tax value.
Scorsone said the financial liability is "certainly going to be a big number and it's going to hit a lot of places that aren't aware of the problem."
"A lot of governments are going to get squeezed pretty hard," Scorsone said.
The fall in property-tax collections comes even as Michigan is beginning to emerge from a long economic slump. The University of Michigan on Nov. 19 forecast a net increase in jobs in 2011, the first gain in more than a decade. The state's economic activity in September reached its highest level since June 2008, driven by resurgent manufacturing, according to a Comerica Bank report.
Dangerous mix
Meanwhile, the combination of foreclosures, falling tax revenue and unfunded municipal pension liabilities is becoming unmanageable, said Charles Moore, senior managing director at Conway MacKenzie Inc., which works with municipalities on financial restructuring.
"I think there's a very high likelihood we'll see defaults in 2011 and I expect it will only increase in 2012 and 2013," said Moore, who is based in Birmingham, Michigan, a Detroit suburb.
Communities are trying to persuade the Legislature to refinance their bond debt that was initially sold on the assumption that property values -- and property taxes -- would continue to increase at pre-2008 levels, Minnick said.
"I hope we can do the refinancing so we can prevent defaults. I don't know if, at the end of the day, that will be enough," she said.
« Bailout Contagion Hits Europe As Pensions Seized In France, Hungary & Ireland To Pay Banks - Who's Next? »
A round-up of several stories.
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Contagion strikes Italy as Ireland bail-out fails to calm markets
The EU-IMF rescue for Ireland has failed to restore to confidence in the eurozone debt markets, leading instead to a dramatic surge in bond yields across half the currency bloc.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8169225/Contagion-strikes-Italy-as-Ireland-bail-out-fails-to-calm-markets.html
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Spain could be forced to seek a bail-out within months, warns Barclays
The weight of bank debt needing refinancing next year could threaten Spain's solvency and force it to become the next European country to seek a bail-out, according to a report from the investment banking arm of Barclays.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8163705/Spain-could-be-forced-to-seek-a-bail-out-within-months-warns-Barclays.html
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Pension reserve funds to be spent on Irish banks
Amid speculation last night that the rate of interest to be charged on the EU/IMF bailout could be as much as 6.7%, Fine Gael’s finance spokesman Michael Noonan said that kind of rate was "far too high" and unaffordable on any reasonable projection of growth.
The Department of Finance said the interest rate had still not been finalised, but given that much of the loan would be repayable over nine years the rate could be higher than the 5.2% charged to Greece but would not be as high as the 6.7% being quoted by some brokers.
Meanwhile, Anglo Irish Bank, which was downgraded to junk status yesterday evening, is expected to be closed swiftly, together with the Irish Nationwide Building Society, under the EU/IMF loan plan.
Officials hope to finalise the details of the €85bn package later today and have EU finance ministers approve it tomorrow.
http://www.irishexaminer.com/home/pension-reserve-funds-to-be-spent-on-banks-137796.html#ixzz16kXUGvzu
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Hungary Follows Argentina in Pension-Fund Ultimatum
Hungary is giving its citizens an ultimatum: move your private-pension fund assets to the state or lose your state pension.
Economy Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy announced the policy yesterday, escalating a government drive to bring 3 trillion forint ($14.6 billion) of privately managed pension assets under state control to reduce the budget deficit and public debt. Workers who opt against returning to the state system stand to lose 70 percent of their pension claim.
“This is effectively a nationalization of private pension funds,” David Nemeth, an economist at ING Groep NV in Budapest, said in a phone interview. “It’s the nightmare scenario.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-25/hungary-follows-argentina-in-pension-fund-ultimatum-nightmare-for-some.html
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Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Germany faces its awful choice as Spain wobbles
Desperate moments call for desperate measures. In June 1940, the British War Cabinet led by Winston Churchill offered a total national merger to a shattered France.
“All debts of Greece, Cyprus, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland will be fused immediately with German debt; a single treasury will control spending, and issue euro-bonds for all Euroland,” or some such formula.
This is the sort of game-changer that may now be required to save EMU and the Monnet dream. Germany must contemplate doing for Euroland what it has done for its own Volk in the East over the last 20 years – pay big transfers – or watch its strategic investment in the post-War order of Europe collapse with a bang, and in hideous acrimony. Tough call.
It is clear to those working in the bond markets that the debt crisis in the EMU periphery is nearing danger point, and risks spiralling out of control as quickly as the Lehman-AIG-Fannie-Freddie crisis in 2008.
Prof Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup, said last week that Portugal is likely to need a rescue before the end of the year and that Spain will follow “soon after”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8166198/Germany-faces-its-awful-choice-as-Spain-wobbles.html
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Analysts consider country next in line for a bail-out
With Europe agreeing a €85bn bail-out for Ireland's banks, analysts consider who, if anyone, could be next.
"The market seems to think it's inevitable Portugal requests assistance next - perhaps in January? - and then after that Spain will be scrutinised with a fine tooth comb over the coming months. In doing the work for the Outlook we've increasing come to the conclusion that whether you think the Sovereign problems stop at Greece, Ireland and perhaps Portugal depends on whether you think this is a problem with the overall Western financial system or whether you think its only a problem with individual over-leveraged entities."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/8166521/Next-Spain-Analysts-consider-country-next-in-line-for-a-bail-out.html
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Comex Default for Gold and Silver Finally at Hand for December? Looks Like It May Finally Be the Month!
If you are in the least bit interested in metals - gold and silver than Harvey Organ's Blog is a must read! Every day he will put out the numbers of the Comex and today he gave the best news I have read yet about metals!
He says a Comex Default looks to be at hand!! The amount of orders standing for delivery for the month of December is much more than the Comex has officially listed on hand!
Also, remember the shorts on metals, especially J.P. Morgan has on silver is Huge! They have to cover their shorts for those who are standing for delivery! How will they do this? Considering the millions of ounces standing for delivery in December? Bet they will be calling those longs and offering a huge percentage over the long value order in cash, instead of physical.
Portions from Harvey Organ's Blog today, excerpt from Truth in Gold Blog :
With that said, the open gold o/i as of this morning is 59,412 contracts. This translates into 5.9 million ounces. The Comex gold inventory shows only 2.6 million ounces of gold registered and approved for delivery. There is a total of 11.4mm ounces.
In silver, there are 17,208 open contracts. This translates into 86 million ounces. The Comex reports 48.5 million ounces available and approved for delivery, 107.2 million total ounces.
What does this mean, in the context of the cartel being unable to force liquidate a majority of the open gold/silver positions? Everyone reading this can use their imagination and I'm not willing to predict how this will unfold, but right now the Comex has a problem.
**What is Great, We can all be roasting Chestnuts on the Open Fire for Christmas as the Comex will be trying to extinguish all the Fires, along with J.P.Morgan and HSBC! I think I will go and get a bag of Chestnuts...... Just for Roasting!**** So, read Harvey to know what the deal is everyday this month, we can all watch those numbers.... as we are munching on our popcorn... enjoying the show!
UPDATE - 11/30/10 - KingWorldNews - Pan American Silver CEO - says End users of Silver are having a hard time getting the physical needed for Industry, never mind investments!
U.S. cities forced to spend millions changing street signs (because they are in capital letters)
Cash-strapped cities and towns across America are having to pay out millions of dollars on new signs under orders of the federal government - because they are the wrong letter size.
Washington officials have demanded that every single street sign in the nation which is currently in capitals must be replaced because they are supposedly too hard to read.
In their place will be new signs with the same green background and the same font, the only difference being that they are in lower-case letters.
For some cities the cost will be millions of dollars at a time when budgets are being cut and salaries frozen.
New directive: All street signs in capital letters will have to be replaced by 2012 with signs featuring upper- and lower-case letters
Costly enterprise: The sign change has been outlined in the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices, issued by the Federal Highway Administration
In Milwaukee alone the bill will reach nearly $2million - double the city's entire annual traffic budget.
The regulations are part of a web of red tape included in the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices, an 800-page tome issued by the Federal Highway Administration.
It orders that the signs must be replaced because lower-case words are supposedly much safer than capitals.
The rules state that by 2012 local authorities must increase the size of the letters on street signs from the current 4 inches to 6 inches on all roads with speed limits over 25 miles per hour.
By 2018, new signs with reflective letters will have to be put in place. Any signs that are introduced must, under no circumstances, be in capital letters.
Larger type: The lower-case signs feature letters that, at six inches tall, are two inches larger than the capitals signs. making them easier to read
In Dinwiddie County, Virginia, residents were furious that the bill would come to the equivalent of the $10 for every man, woman and child.
Harrison Moody, chairman of the Dinwiddie Board of Supervisors, said: ‘The money is better spent on education, or the sheriff's department or on public safety than something like that.'
Others in the town said the current street signs worked well enough. Resident Thomas Davis said: ‘There are a lot of people out there that are hungry. Why spend money on street signs when everybody can read a street sign or, if you don't know where you're going, get a GPS.’
In a statement the Federal Highway Administration said the signs are being changed to make them easier to read for an ageing population.
Federal Highway Administrator Victor Mendez said: ‘If you can't read it, you can't see it or you can't comprehend it, it could be a distraction to you. You could be in an accident, negative consequences could occur.’
He added that in response to the outcry the FHA would announce a period of public consultation over the cost of the new signs, with a view to possibly loosening the rules.
More than 8 million drop out of credit card use
About 62 million people now have an active card, compared with 70 million a year ago.
The Chicago company found that consumers in the subprime category, or those with low credit ratings, were believed to be without cards mostly because they were shut down by banks after payments fell behind or balances were written off.
"One can quite reasonably infer that's not voluntary," said Ezra Becker, vice president of research and consulting in TransUnion's financial services business unit. Banks have written off record amounts of credit card balances in recent years.
But a significant portion of the decrease in card usage reflects decisions by cardholders to stop using credit, Becker said. "They're simply either not purchasing as much or paying down balances."